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Living on borrowed time!
 
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OT; the WebBot project

These guys (Cliff High and George Ure) are on to something.
I listened last year and avoided the worst of the gambling, er stock market carnage.
here's a quick synopsis of 2009. Hang on!

http://www.urbansurvival.com/2009summary.pdf
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Old 01-02-2009, 08:28 AM
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...no wonder you re always so gloomy, jony!

...is there ANY kind of proof out there (other than an "after the fact" we have said so pdf) that this was published and available BEFORE any of this happened?

I still tend to see things a little lighter... as it is in the interest of the "GLOBAL" community not to let things slide that far... and we have seen that they CAN work together, if they really have to.
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Old 01-02-2009, 08:46 AM
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yep, Ralphie, there is.
there's a detailed archive at urbansurvival.com. Also search google for it.
the History Channel did a big segment on it.

Like Bob Dean says, "I'm not paranoid, I'm just paying attention'.

Most people can't handle the truth.

By the end of 2009 it should be very apparent whether or not it's accurate but so far they have a very-scarily-accurate track record.

this is FYI.
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Better a has-been than a wanna-be
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Old 01-02-2009, 09:08 AM
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Couldn't open the pdf; checked out the blog.

Hmmm... though I'm no speaking expert on finances or the Stock Market, and have never made enough $$ to invest, I'm along for the ride ticket or no ticket. Point in case, most of the blog is up-to-date support for views I've had for 30 years or more. Now I can honestly say I'm glad I've been at the lower edge of the middle class; I've got next to nothing to lose.

Just wonder where/when the Bell Curve for Baby Boomer Die-Off fits into the pic. I've told my kids over and over not to invest in property, that the USofA was going to see the first major downturn in property values since 1776 and when they were in their 60s or 70s they would probably be able to buy up land cheap for the next wave of boomer babies. The Sunshine States (re: NorthEast Retirement/Relocation center) is going to have 3 houses for every 1 buyer very, very soon.

JonyRR gloomy? I doubt it very much! He might be overly optimistic for all I know. Expect the best, prepare for the worst.

The interests of the Global Community are about as important to the power players as my opinion is to Barack Obama, or anyone else in WashDC. Of the 6.5B people on this planet, something like 6.499B are just along for the ride. Casualties stored in-place for later use.
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Old 01-02-2009, 09:33 AM
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Also check out Gerald Celente the trends research guy, he has a very good record.Jony, I have followed the web bot project for several years.It's a bit more accurate than I had thought possible, really freakish.Gerald Celente is respected by most of the MSM.On thing is for sure, we have not hit rock bottom yet, things WILL get interesting.
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Old 01-02-2009, 09:57 AM
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Old 01-02-2009, 10:39 AM
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No Roloo I wouldn't go that far.He is just really good with data and well grounded in reality which most economists are not, not even close.Common sense tells me that industrial nations like the U.S. cannot maintain extravagant lifestyles by trashing the manufacturing base.Lets face it, a service based economy and the lifestyle we have grown accustomed to since the 50's have zero compatibility.Waiting tables, cutting lawns, burger joints, half-baked "home business" just won't cut it.We have to become producers as well as consumers to get that balance back, I just don't see it happening again in my lifetime.Hope I'm wrong
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Old 01-02-2009, 11:00 AM
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MD;
There are no coincidences.
As you said, he's the absolute best at parsing vast amounts of seemingly-disparate data using some unique algorythms he created and the resulting cogent 'intel fusion' picture is remarkably accurate.

What really blows my mind is that he's in the same age bracket as I and currently lives <1 mile from where the evil genius who hacked PROMIS grew up and lived before he crossed the wrong people...in fact, I learned a bunch of VMS and early SQL from both their sources. Talk about 6 degrees of separation.

I threw this out to the board because I really believe events are accelerating like a TZ750 in 6th gear at redline towards some of those 'significant events in modelspace' he talks about. If you have been following along, you know exactly what I mean and won't be surprised about it.

The more people who can become 'awake, aware and committed to positive change' the better. If it helps just one person it will have been worth being scoffed at by the unwashed masses.

Pax to you all and a positive new day dawns!
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Better a has-been than a wanna-be
Injection is nice but I'd rather be blown
bottles are not just for babies.....
1999 R1100S;1999 KTM 380EXC street-legal motard
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Old 01-02-2009, 11:45 AM
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You can make some long-term predictions based on "what goes up must come down" laws and general societal trends and the like. But those who believe in being able to predict a year in advance month-to-month details of economic events, political events, and natural events should also be putting credence in their horoscopes and the farmer's almanac.

Short term (less than a decade or so), it's a RANDOM WALK folks. Every statistical study every done on markets has shown that if you attempt to time things, you come out worse than if you just stand pat.

That doesn't mean we're not in for some very rough seas and a possible further meltdown. Diversification and hedging your bets is always a good strategy. But don't attempt to time things - the odds are against you.

- Mark

Last edited by markjenn; 01-02-2009 at 12:48 PM..
Old 01-02-2009, 12:46 PM
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markjenn:
I accept about 1/2 of your rationale. It is not a random walk; it is too large for a human mind to encompass, so it appears random. The specific chain of events is difficult nye on impossible to predict, but the pieces are all there and most of them will fit together to form the engine of destruction that has been predicted.



Now I will say that it is easier to predict failure than it is to predict success. So how it's going to turn out I will only note that a few rich people will get richer, some rich people will get a lot less rich, a very few unrich people will make headway up the money ladder and a lot of poor people will get poorer, a few losing everything including their lives, along the way.

This rerun of history brought to you by the current Administration and a bunch of people who think they are smarter than those who came before because they confuse book learning with knowledge.
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Old 01-02-2009, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjenn View Post
You can make some long-term predictions based on "what goes up must come down" laws and general societal trends and the like. But those who believe in being able to predict a year in advance month-to-month details of economic events, political events, and natural events should also be putting credence in their horoscopes and the farmer's almanac.

Short term (less than a decade or so), it's a RANDOM WALK folks. Every statistical study every done on markets has shown that if you attempt to time things, you come out worse than if you just stand pat.

That doesn't mean we're not in for some very rough seas and a possible further meltdown. Diversification and hedging your bets is always a good strategy. But don't attempt to time things - the odds are against you.

- Mark
Exactly!

Not only am I am not impresses with the technical discussion/ background here, but the verbiage/nomenclature is not inline with someone that would use search algorithms to create predictions. SQL? You would not us SQL to do this type of work. A webbot lol. Oh brother. This is worst then a "dawn of the dead" sci-fi explination as to why the dead can be re-animated..

Even the most advance Heuristic Autonomous Flight Algorithms are not able to predict in the relative flight paths of simple single path flight vehicles releative to discrete inputs and outputs for more then a few seconds.

Looking backwards statistically you can truly see how far you have deviated from the "Flight path" or prediction but it will not give you information about future events.

So unless this guy has created some sort of Statistical Crystal ball .. I call b*u*l*l*s*h*e*e*t

Your Telling me that this is some sort of Fractal Geometry search tool that can predict multi-phase non linear time line "answers to what is going to happen in the future based searching Web sites / Forums and Blog. HA HA HA HA

It would be like looking at the "noise" of a weather / storm pattern and then predict when the financial systems are going to fail... PLEASE!

If you really want to see the progression of this web page through Time you will have a better idea as to where this "Information" is coming from Check this out

At least you can do a little research on the "Soucre" of the crystal ball.

This guy is simply Spewing Predictions and then if one part of one even has the slightest resemblance to some thing in the news....
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Old 01-02-2009, 02:27 PM
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
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It is not a random walk; it is too large for a human mind to encompass, so it appears random. The specific chain of events is difficult nye on impossible to predict, but the pieces are all there and most of them will fit together to form the engine of destruction that has been predicted.
Yes it is a random walk. Read a book about chaos theory or watch Jurrasic Park again. It is not a matter of it being too complex for the human mind, it is a matter of it being fundamentally and intractably non-computational. What does this mean? It means that you could have all the minds and all the computer power in the world analyze the problem (or all the computer power in a billion or trillion of our worlds for a trillion years) and you still wouldn't be any closer to the answer.

A good example of a simlar computational intractability is long-term prediction of the weather - predicting sixty days from now what the the weather is going to be in any specific location. The tools we have now to predict weather are a million times more powerful than fifty years ago, but once beyond a few days our predictive capability is essentially unchanged - all the advances have done nothing for this problem. It's fundamentally intractable.

People who sell books, or market prediction software, or want traffic to their web sites will sell you that they've "figured it out" and then trot out folks who have used the "system" to achieve good results. Most of these testimonials are made up but there are always some who do use the system and purport that it works. JohyRR apparently used the one in question and he thinks it helped him avoid the market "carnage" of the last six months. Good for him. This is the stuff of late-night infomercials where you attend a free seminar and then buy the Wise Trade stock picking system and sit back, simply buying the ones that are green and sell the ones that are red. But if you do a statistical analysis on these systems, you find that while some do much better than average, an equal or larger number do much worse than average. So the "success stories" are completely and totally explained by the normal statistical variation you'd expect with any strategy.

Again, there are some long-term trends that are probably being ignored by many which can shape a long-term strategy that reduces risk and potentially increases gains: the graying of our society, the real-estate bubble which probably has a lot more room to dissipate, the long-term rise in mean planet temperature that will have major climatic changes, the peaking of world oil production that is happening right now, the inability of our society to address the fundamental issues of health care, etc. And we are running the risk of a major economic collapse each and every year, so its a great idea to have some safety net in your finances, living situation, etc. Heck, we're also running the risk of an accidental release of our nuclear arsenals too that could probably take humankind down to a few hundred thousand people over a century of fallout. There are lots of boogey-men out there and statistics say that sooner or later its going to happen. But nobody knows when it is going to happen any more than anyone knows when a big asteroid is going to hit the earth or a 9+ magnitude earthquake is going to hit the Pac NW. Anybody that does is selling snake oil - it's as simple as that.

- Mark
Old 01-02-2009, 03:32 PM
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markjenn:
That's the most cogent reply I've seen in years! How religious are you (don't answer that rhetorical question). The intractability issue begs the question about God and all-knowing powers.

But I don't accept much of that because I don't believe the human mind is anywhere near the limit of cognition possible. I think humans are "barely" intelligent. Read Larry Niven and his concept of a protector (pak). The more intelligent a creature, the less volition and choice it should have since the "correct" answer should be more and more obvious.

As to predicting the weather: we don't have nearly the correct algorithm or powerful enough a computer. Nothing is impossible if you apply enough brute force and ignorance. We've got the ignorance issue covered pretty good, but the brute force has all been exported overseas.
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:48 PM
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If you believe this guy's projections then finance may well be the least of our worries. So what does an ordinary citizen do when the town over is having food riots, or your own town has no food,water or electricity. Yeah you can stockpile food ,water and ammo but ...come on, are you really going to stand guard over your home 24/7? How much food and water can you store? What about your extended family, your children that have thewir own homes. Are they on their own? Seriously what do you think you're gong to do if it all comes down?

Me? I'm gonna go MadMax , steal gas and ride.
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:52 PM
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Quote:
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As to predicting the weather: we don't have nearly the correct algorithm or powerful enough a computer. Nothing is impossible if you apply enough brute force and ignorance.
Thanks for the compliment.

In weather, it's not a matter of not having the correct algorithm or powerful enough computer - it is that THE CORRECT ALGORITHM DOESN'T EXIST. When you start working the equations the affect weather, you see quickly that they're not deterministic - at a basic level, you can put the exact same inputs into the system two different times and get two different results. There is a parallel concept in complexity theory that can be applied to problems to prove mathematically that an efficient algorithm (something other than brute force) to solve a problem doesn't exist - not that one hasn't been found yet, but that one absolutely and positively does not exist. Brute force is completely and totally out of the question for all but the most trivial problems. Further quantum mechanics says that even brute force isn't deterministic for most real world problems.

IOW, strange as it may seem, whether we have an economic collapse next year may very well depend on whether you walk into the kitchen next or whether you walk into the living room. Or whether Roger buys new pistons for his race bike. Random perturbations propagating through the system in ways that can't possibly be predicted not matter how much you know or how good your computer is.

- Mark

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Old 01-02-2009, 04:48 PM
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Anybody got some extra computer time to calculate the odds on Dr. Curve solving the Krauser 4 valve head problem before the fall of Western Civilation?
Old 01-02-2009, 05:40 PM
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Western Civilation?

Wow, the deflation has already started!

No, I own a Mac, not a real computer!
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Old 01-02-2009, 06:18 PM
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The bottom line is that we are overdue for a huge slice of humble pie.Every empire enjoys that moment in the sun, but it will set eventually.Our ego's have written checks our accounts cannot sustain or handle, welcome to the REAL world, like it or not.If you have grandparents eighty or ninety years old, ask advice and listen, they might know a thing or two about hard times........
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Old 01-02-2009, 06:48 PM
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Well, Cliff made some pretty solid predictions in his powerpoint presentation.
let's gather in a year to see how close he came.

BTW, you DO know NASA means 'Never A Straight Answer', right?
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Old 01-02-2009, 07:23 PM
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