Harley-Davidson shares fall

[boxercup]

Associated Press Wire:
Harley-Davidson shares fall; analyst cuts estimate
Associated Press, 01.20.09, 06:37 PM EST
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Shares of Harley-Davidson Inc. fell sharply Monday as an analyst cut his estimates on the iconic motorcycle maker ahead of its scheduled earnings release Friday.

Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Anthony Gikas slashed his share price target from $30 to $15 and cut his forecast for fourth-quarter revenue to $1.23 billion from $1.32 billion. He reduced his earnings-per-share estimate to 54 cents from 60 cents.

"Selling high-end motorcycles to mid-end consumers in this economy remains challenging," Gikas wrote in a research note to investors.

He estimated that December sales sank about 20 percent. He expects sales to continue to slide, adding that there is increasing pressure on earnings from Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company's lending subsidiary.

Sales of motorcycle makers, like those of auto makers, have suffered as consumers scale back discretionary spending. Even those consumers who would buy often cannot find a loan.

Gikas also chopped his earnings and revenue estimates for fiscal 2009. He maintained a "Neutral" rating on the company.

Shares of Milwaukee-based Harley-Davidson fell $1.68, or 12.3 percent, to end at $12.02. The stock has traded between $11.54 and $48.05 in the past 52 weeks.

[Deans BMW]

"Selling high-end motorcycles to mid-end consumers in this economy remains challenging," Gikas wrote in a research note to investors.

Thats the Harley business plan in a nutshell.

Selling something very expensive to a not so sophisticated customer.

[boxercup]

Greetings Dean,

Right you are!

Up early eh?

[ckcarr]

Not seeing anything unusual here. My 401K is down 43% over the last four months. IT's tied just about directly to the DOW. The entire market is taking a gigantic beating right now.

On the upside, Harley Davidson has a deal going right now where you can buy a Sportster, ride it for a year, and then get your original purchase price back on a trde up to a Dyna or other larger bike. Perhaps BMW should try that with the F650's or (why not) the F800GS! As their sales aren't super stellar right now.

[Deans BMW]

Belive it or not, Mz Pam and I are up between 4 and 5 am drinking our morning coffee in bed while watching news on TV. Living way out in the country miles from anyone does that to you.

Life is good

[boxercup]

Originally Posted by Deans BMW

Life is good

Nice Dean!

Everything is Good!

So good to hear to balance the Life is Bad contingent.

[geothepencil]

Frankly, I'm more worried about Steak n Shake's stock price and future. What would we do without Steakburgers ?

geo

[ckcarr]

Actually, as goes Harley so goes the rest of the motorcycle world. Harley has already tumbled (like the rest of the market) from a high of $42.80 on 9/19/08 to it's current price of $11.50 this morning. The analyst offers nothing of value really. Instead of being overly optimistic, he is projecting a realistic target of $15.00 / share.

[motoman]

Originally Posted by Deans BMW

Thats the Harley business plan in a nutshell.

Selling something very expensive to a not so sophisticated customer.

I don't see how BMW's future looks any better right now.

Customer sophistication notwithstanding.

[geothepencil]

I carefully studied a large Chrysler/Dodge ad yesterday from Northern IL and it appears at least that dealer is selling its 08 stock at around 45% off sticker. Now there are a a couple of goofy requirements like you gotta give em a title for something, running or not, but is this the beginning of the end of retail transpo as we know it ?

BMWs at 50% off ?

geo

[JonyRR]

I was wondering when the fall of the world financial system was gonna start showing up in our little niche.
The HD business model works as long as there's considerable disposable income available.
that's pretty much gone now, along with a loan for 100% value to anyone who is breathing.
I look at motorcycles on Craigslist all the time and laugh hysterically at the for-sale ads for the tipycal Big Dog Ridgeback or somesuch POS for like 30KUSD or so.
talk about an expensive, impractical garage-lemon that sucked in dollar bills like a financial black hole.
I'm seriously thinking about starting a secondhand, lo-end small bike/scooter shop in conjunction with a semi-seedy motorcycle bar and grille. Buddy and I are looking into one spot already. Fortunately his family is sicilian ('connected') so we just might be able to pull it off

[ckcarr]

I want an Escalade!

[roger albert]

Escalades and Navs are great tow/track vehicles

[Deans BMW]

Actually, BMW Motorad is doing quiet well, sales are off .02%.

[Deans BMW]

I forgot the link


Despite less than ideal market conditions, BMW Motorad recently posted above average sales numbers. While the yearly sales total was down 0.8 percent, clear growth signals were shown towards the end of the year with December sales showing an increase of 9.7 percent.

In spite of a decline in the motorcycle market in general, BMW Motorrad saw clear increases in sales in the European markets of Italy, France, Great Britain/Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, Greece and Poland as well as Latin America and South Africa amongst others. While BMW sales in the US declined slightly, market share actually increased.

The most successful model overall in 2008 was once again the travel Enduro BMW R1200GS (22,845 units) followed by its sibling model, the R1200GS Adventure (12,460 units). As compared to the previous year, 2,298 more units of the R 1200 GS were delivered to customers, while sales of the Adventure were 2,930 units above the previous year.

Husqvarna Motorcycles, the second motorcycle brand of the BMW Group, grew significantly in 2008. The oldest motorcycle brand in the world still in active production delivered 13,511 motorcycles in its first year after being taken over by the BMW Group, an increase of 31 percent over the previous year. Growth stimuli here came mainly from overseas markets.

BMW Motorad is hoping 2009 will bring much success, due in part to a broader model range and an increased involvement in motorsports.

[cbray]

Originally Posted by motoman

I don't see how BMW's future looks any better right now.

Customer sophistication notwithstanding.

+1
i am not shocked at H.D. stock falling. Seens as though they sell more apparel than bikes. Unfortunatly they build monster dealerships and pay overpriced mecanics to fix constantly breaking bikes that are still under waranty and have a prehistoric design, from the engine to the frames inc the suspention.

The bmw dealers here in chicago are just rude. They host no events and treat customers like garbage unless they get to know you. I understand the concept of treating your regulars a little diffrently but when people come into a show room and are automaticly shunned at or treated like they cant afford the bike really sux. I used to get this kind of treatment then i bought both my bikes from another dealer and now go to to the chigao dealer for service, as soon as they could recognise me they began to treat me completely diffrent. Ohh and i dont look like a bum either

[boxercup]

http://mpnmag.com/site/content/article.aspx?articleid=150&zoneid=10

[boxercup]

OUTSTANDING SALES RESULTS IN 2008 - BMW MOTORRAD ASSERTS ITSELF IN TOUGH MARKET CONDITIONS - SIGNIFICANT GROWTH FOR HUSQVARNA MOTORCYCLES
01/21/2009
Munich.

In tough market conditions, BMW Motorrad has been able to follow up on its record sales of the previous year. In 2008, 101,685 (previous year: 102,467 units) BMW motorcycles were delivered to customers – a slight drop of 0.8%. Clear growth signals were shown especially in the second half of the year. In December, sales were even 9.3% above the level of the previous year at 7,457 units (previous year: 6,821 units).
Despite a decline in motorcycle markets in general, BMW Motorrad saw clear increases in sales in the European markets of Italy, France, Great Britain/Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, Greece and Poland as well as Latin America and South Africa amongst others. As a result of the ongoing product offensive, the blue-and-white brand was able to assert itself impressively in the other export markets and in some cases significantly increase market shares.

In Germany, the biggest single market for BMW Motorrad, a total of 18,112 BMW motorcycles were newly registered (previous year: 22,065 units), a decline of 17.9%. Nonetheless BMW Motorrad was able to maintain market leadership in the overall market, which once again declined (minus 8.8 %), as well as in the segment of motorcycles over 500 cc. The BMW share of the total market as of December was 17.3% (previous year: 19.2%), in the segment over 500 cc the market share was 18.1% (previous year: 20.4%).

As in the previous year, the second biggest market for BMW Motorrad was Italy. 15,342 BMW motorcycles (previous year: 14,533 units) were newly registered, an increase of 5.6%. In the Italian market as a whole, in which there was a general decline (total market: minus 8.6%), BMW not only recorded an increase in registrations but was also able to expand its market share to 11.2 % (previous year: 9.7%).

In the USA too, BMW Motorrad’s third largest market, the total market declined by 4.6 %. Nonetheless 0.6% more BMW motorcycles were registered by customers than in the previous year, with total sales of 11,839 units (previous year: 11,768 units); at the same time the BMW Motorrad market share increased from 1.7% to 1.8%.

Registrations and market share developments in other markets


Development of total market
BMW Motorrad
Registrations
BMW Motorrad market share
Spain
- 20.4%
10,152 units
(previous year:10,384 units)
9.0%
(previous year: 7.3%)
France
- 3.0 %
8,019 units
(previous year: 7,590 units)
7.7%
(previous year: 7.1%)
UK
- 5.8%
5,850 units
(previous year: 5,100 units)
8.3%
(previous year: (6.8%)
South Africa
- 8.1%
3,313 units
(previous year: 2,762 units)
12.8%
(previous year: (9.8%)


The most successful model overall in 2008 was once again the travel enduro BMW R 1200 GS (22,845 units) followed by its sibling model, the R 1200 GS Adventure (12,460 units). As compared to the previous year, 2,298 more units of the R 1200 GS were delivered to customers, while sales of the Adventure were 2,930 units above the previous year.

It was followed in third place by the touring bike R 1200 RT with 11,001 motorcycles delivered.

The F enduro models, not available until March 2008 (autumn 2008: market launch of the F 800 GS overseas), also became sales hits. The F 800 GS achieved sales of 10,261 units, while the F 650 GS achieved 9,644 units and came fifth in the popularity ranking of BMW motorcycles.

Husqvarna Motorcycles grows by about a third.

Husqvarna Motorcycles, the second motorcycle brand of the BMW Group, grew significantly in 2008. The oldest motorcycle brand in the world still in active production delivered 13,511 motorcycles in its first year after being taken over by the BMW Group, a plus of 31% as compared to the previous year. Growth stimuli here came mainly from overseas markets.

BMW Motorrad – the prospects for 2009.

The model range of BMW Motorrad is broader than ever in 2009. In the worlds of experience Enduro, Tour, Urban, Sport and HP there are fascinating motorcycles to meet virtually every taste. The program is complemented with an extensive range of accessories and rider equipment.

As of February, the model revision of the BMW K series will be available to customers – the K 1300 S and K 1300 GT.

The 2009 season will also see BMW Motorrad’s entry into the segment of super sports bikes. The BMW S 1000 RR will enter the Superbike World Championship, the most important racing series for motorcycles close to serial (Serial=Stock) production. The market launch of the standard model will take place later on in the year.

The second racing highlight of the year is BMW’s involvement in the sports enduro area. The BMW Motorrad Motorsport Off-Road Team will enter the World Enduro Championship with the G 450 X, as well as taking part in national and international cross country championships.

[cbray]

maybe BMW needs to work on the Chicago area a little harder

[boxercup]

Originally Posted by cbray

maybe bmw needs to work on the chicago area a little harder

yes!