market following strange monthly cycle giggidy.
 

Interesting trend in the market:
for the past several months, the DJIA and my main portfolio have dipped at or near the end of the month (within two or three days) only to recover and peak near the middle of the month but higher than the previous peak, say around the 13th through 15th or so.


Co-inky-dink?

I hope it keeps up this trend with a new high every month !

It's all a manipulated ponzi scheme....

The DJIA is a bad indicator of the broad market. 30 stocks. Price weighted.

Plastics.

Do you use a Ouija board or is it chicken entrails that you use to make your investment decisions?

tea leaves

More buyers than sellers

snow tires

I noticed an pattern and asked for opinions because i thought it was interesting.
You (mis)read it and saw an opportunity to be a great big douche.
Which you of course pounced on.

Did i say I was trying to use this as investment strategy? no, of course not. Anyone who isn't suffering from dementia could see that.
Did I EVER suggest that I day trade to try to time the market? no, of course not.
That only happened in your old-timer's fantasy.

You really need to get a grip before the home takes away your internet privileges.

^^^ This. For at least 30 years there have been more investment funds (never mind the number of individual investors) than their have been stocks.

_

I attribute it to the move away from traditional pension to 401k's and IRA's as retirement plans - there's a lot more ways for the common man to lose his retirement ass now.

^^^indeed

BTW sammy, I think the August Dow is throwing you a curve.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1534348142.png

Yep, so far August isn't following the trend. It hasn't been exact but has gone through a change every 15 days give or take a few.

From 2010 to 2013 we saw a similar strange pattern in the WTO crude prices.
I commented on it in this forum IIRC.

it started at $70 and would go up $10/bbl, then drop 10. then go up $15/bbl, then drop 10.
It kept this up and gradually climbed to $110/bbl, before plummeting to $50.

I saw that as strange and believed at the time the market was being manipulated by commodity brokers working for the Saudis who were buying fictitious futures contracts that were never delivered or taken possession of, but that were withheld supply from the market which drove up prices.

I watch market trends not to trade or make investment decisions, but to see if I can sense manipulation. Yes, I believe that the market can be influenced by the big boys at wall street and especially by the playas on the New York Mercantile Exchange and that they actually do that from time to time.
I try to spot evidence of it.

My tin foil hat is held on with a chin strap.

You asked a stupid question so you got a stupid answer. So put your dunce cap on.

I expected better from you.

The time frame means nothing. Closing highs and lows are far more important. The sp500 closed at 2872 on 1/29/18. Recently it reached 2858 or so as a close and has fallen off hitting 2802 this morning which was a level of support. It has bounced off that level which is good.

But the sp500 has to close above 2872 reaching a new high for this rally to continue. Or equities will retreat. Since equity time and Tabs time run differently, I can not say when equities could retest the old high again (it could be years). Then the question becomes how far down will the retreat be?

I would have to look at the chart again to see levels of support. It is like going down a staircase.

I started watching equities assiduously in1990, and have learned a thing or 2 from Mother in Tucson along the way. One of mothers friends to remind you is a former FED chairman.So mother knows a thing or two about what is what. The RNC doesn't call you and ask for advice if you are a dummy.

Nobody is in control of a GD thing. They can try. But it don't work. The law of unintended consequences apply.

Even a consortium of the world's Central Banks could do no more than put the economy on life support.

Since PEOPLE are the traders in markets those markets trade upon the vagaries of human emotion. We all know how fickle human emotion can be. No rhyme nor reason.

But there is a common herd like sentiment that runs through the collective. Figure out how to read that collective sentiment and you might have something.

Right now the herd is worried...that ole SP500 stalled out at 2852, not quite getting there (a lower high). The base line worry is how will the economy react in the face of a trade war. TRUMP HAS TO START PUTTING SOME OIL ON THE WATERS. Then we come to Turkey with its plunging currency which might spread to Europe causing a chain reaction. Because the whole shyte house is a fking house of cards and everybody with a fking brain knows it.That is what the herd is feeling.

Longer term the herds confidence in the FED guarantee of a continuing activist policy holds steady. That as I pointed out in 2012 is the reason for the continuing Bull market in equities. History has proven out that contention. That is the reason why there has not been any sustained correction in equities since 9/12.

Even people who should know don't know. Surprise surprise surprise.

To move a market you have to move BIG POSITIONS one way or another. Who has the ability to move Big Positions? There are only so many big players, not only that but to go unnoticed they have to do it in small increments...the accumulation of those increments will not go unnoticed. The street might not know who is doing it, but it will not go unnoticed. That could move smaller players to follow a trend out of greed or abject fear.

On a technical basis a Player might think the market is getting a bit extended (up or down) and make a move in or out (fear and greed). The fellow next door is basically thinking the same thing..so he makes a move. Which creates a trend. Now if the Black Swan of a geo political or economic event occurs the whole herd might make a big move all at once...

A few years back the Chinese were rumored to be dumping US Treasuries, to send a warning message to Washington. The US Treasury market got squirrely, so the FED as it goes stepped in and started buying US Treasuries through a Third Party in Europe, which ended that gambit.

Again when some one is out buying up Gold which drives prices up, the FED SELLS Gold to stabilize the price. That is why some folks think there is NO GOLD left in the FED vaults in NYC or Fort Knox. The powers that be do not want a runaway Gold price. It would ruin their day.

The Chinese were buying up lots of Gold...the reason for it now becomes apparent..They have opened up their own Oil Exchange based in the RMB...BACKED BY GOLD.


THIS CHINESE MOVE IS A FRONTAL ASSAULT ON THE HEGEMONY OF THE USD> (since 1972 all oil trades are to be settled in USD..which makes it the defacto RESERVE CURRENCY for the world. If The USD is not the Reserve Currency for the world, your lives will become much tougher. You have enjoyed a lot of perks from the manipulation of the USD over the decades. You lose that and you are fking done. The center of action moves someplace else...and with it...wealth. Cause you ain't top dog no more!

This is not opinion nor supposition it is geo political and economic reality. Grim yeah..but your leadership that you have so diligently supported (on both sides) for decades have fked it up dude.

Why did the Chinese open their own Oil Exchange...cause they saw what fk ups Americans are in 2008. IT SCARED THEM AND THEY DO NOT WANT TO GO DOWN WITH THE USS AMERICA WHEN IT SINKS. So as stated way back when...they have consistently been making moves which will insure their survival...they needed time. History has born out that contention of mine.

THE CHINESE ARE THINKING AND PLANNING 50 YEARS AHEAD. For that day when America goes kaput. They can clearly see the trajectory that America is on. They stopped being fooled in 08. They much to their aghast surprise had an epiphany. The American CREDIT PONZI SCHEME for American prosperity blew up. WHOOPS.

The only people who are still fooled are Ameericans.....as evidenced by MAGA.