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-   -   Another brand new 737 Max crashes (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1023264-another-brand-new-737-max-crashes.html)

beepbeep 03-22-2019 06:26 AM

Garuda just cancelled 5 billion USD worth of 737 Max orders:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/22/business/boeing-737-max-garuda-cancel/index.html

kach22i 03-22-2019 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by javadog (Post 10400382)
https://www.washingtonpost.com

“One pilot said the airline didn’t “have the infrastructure” to support the fleet of Boeing and Airbus jets it ordered, and alleged the airline had a “fear-based” management culture in which “safety is being sacrificed for expansion and profit margin.” The pilot also accused the airline of failing to update pilot manuals and leaving out certain checklists designed to help pilots respond to “non-normal” situations. Another pilot criticized Ethiopian regulators for maintaining lax standards with respect to crew flight and rest time. The FAA’s data does not identify the pilots by name.”

The full link to that article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/21/ethiopian-pilots-raised-safety-concerns-years-before-fatal-crash-records-show/?utm_term=.e8e122b07dce

kach22i 03-22-2019 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beepbeep (Post 10400444)
Garuda just cancelled 5 billion USD worth of 737 Max orders:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/22/business/boeing-737-max-garuda-cancel/index.html

Maybe they just wanted to get out of the contract and this looked like a good away to do it?

From the article.
Quote:

The Indonesian carrier ordered 50 of the planes in 2014 for $4.9 billion. It has taken delivery of one of them but has now sent a letter to Boeing (BA) saying it no longer wants to receive the remaining jets on order, Ikhsan said. It's the first airline to say it's canceling a 737 Max 8 order.
From research...................

30-Apr-2018
Indonesia domestic airline market: rapid growth, rivalry intensifies
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/indonesia-domestic-airline-market-rapid-growth-rivalry-intensifies-410650
Quote:

Lion poised for further market share gains in 2018

Lion will likely post further market share gains in 2018 as both Garuda and Sriwijaya have set a hiatus in the expansion of their fleets.

All four airlines in the Garuda and Sriwijaya groups are not planning to expand their fleets in 2018 (there will be a small number of aircraft deliveries which will be offset by retirements). However, some domestic traffic growth for the Garuda and Sriwijaya groups is likely through utilisation improvements, particularly for Citilink.

Lion Air and Wings Air are also not expected to pursue rapid fleet expansion, following a significant slowdown in 2017. The Lion Air narrowbody fleet expanded by only one aircraft in 2017, while Wings added just two aircraft. Similar growth at Lion Air and Wings Air (net of retirements) is anticipated for 2018.

However, Batik expanded its fleet by 10 aircraft in 2017 and plans to expand its fleet by at least seven aircraft in 2018. Batik should be able to capture at least 13% market share in 2018, pushing Lion Group’s share up to close to 55%.

How fast Indonesia’s domestic market will grow is always hard to predict, as highlighted by the wide fluctuations in growth rates over the past 12 years. However, over time the market will surely continue to expand rapidly, benefitting the two or three main competitors.
The long and short of it is, growth has been sporadic. The future is uneasy.

flipper35 03-22-2019 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey (Post 10400356)
Apparently there was an “upgraded sensor package” that Boeing charged extra for and at least two airlines were to cheap to buy?

WTF?

If this were a car it would be analogous to having a wheel side slip indicator in the dash along with a light that pops on if the two rear wheel sensors don't agree with each other enough.

Going further with my poor analogy, pretend your car is pulling to the right because one of the slip sensors is bad and the stability control is activating the ABS on the right front tire. Do you need to see the wheel slip angle or a warning light to tell you the sensors don't agree, or do you just pull the ABS fuse because the ABS is what is actually causing the car to pull to the right.

flipper35 03-22-2019 09:46 AM

To go a little further, the previous cars you owned were all similar with 4 channel ABS an you trained in the car on a race track and on your mental checklist is what to do if an ABS sensor goes bad triggering ABS on one wheel - The old737 NG. Now you have a new car but you don't know it has stability control, the 737 Max 8/9 and the ABS triggers oddly. What is your first thought?

stomachmonkey 03-22-2019 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flipper35 (Post 10400717)
To go a little further, the previous cars you owned were all similar with 4 channel ABS an you trained in the car on a race track and on your mental checklist is what to do if an ABS sensor goes bad triggering ABS on one wheel - The old737 NG. Now you have a new car but you don't know it has stability control, the 737 Max 8/9 and the ABS triggers oddly. What is your first thought?

Boeing marketed this plane as something that only needed 2-3 hours of ground training but included a system that apparently very few if any pilots were aware of.

I had to go to CA last month, was up in the mountains, Yosemite area.
Coming down the mountain its cold, hovering near freezing, raining, just miserable.
The rental car was all over the place, felt almost like it was either hydroplaning or hitting patches of black ice, almost.

Fought with it for an hour till I got to a lower altitude where it was warmer and dry but the thing is still driving the same way and finally the light bulb went off.

Whenever I have the room I will use up the entire road, drive in two lanes, whatever is the natural line.

Turns out the rental car had lane departure assist, if it detects you crossing the line it counter steers. No indication it had that feature and no indication it had been enabled.

Despite 40 years of driving experience I spent a stressful hour fighting the car, which was only doing what it was supposed to be doing, because I was not aware it was supposed to be doing what it was doing.

Found the toggle and turned that **** off.

flipper35 03-22-2019 10:21 AM

MCAS was designed to make the Max feel the same in its flight characteristics as the NG so there would be minimal differences in the aircraft handling qualities as far as the pilot was concerned specifically so there would not have to be type specific training.

To apply it to your lane departure case, the car would be activly trying to drive you off the road even though you are trained to drive in the center all the time. But you were trained how to disconnect the electric power steering in previous cars in case it acted up even though the previous did not have lane departure. It doesn't matter what system is causing the malfunction, the end result is you pull power to the control that is responsible for the movement.

flipper35 03-22-2019 10:23 AM

Aside from that, the point I was trying to make, if there is a sensor mismatch would a warning light tell you what system to turn off?

stomachmonkey 03-22-2019 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flipper35 (Post 10400766)
Aside from that, the point I was trying to make, if there is a sensor mismatch would a warning light tell you what system to turn off?

Maybe, if you were aware the system was there to begin with.

With respect to the car, some indicator that a system was active would have helped. Cars with TCS indicate when it's enabled / disabled.

Which I guess is the real point, not knowing it was there.

javadog 03-22-2019 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flipper35 (Post 10400766)
Aside from that, the point I was trying to make, if there is a sensor mismatch would a warning light tell you what system to turn off?

If you knew what you were doing. Here's the airworthiness directive issued by the FAA after the Lion Air crash:

https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/0/83ec7f95f3e5bfbd8625833e0070a070/$FILE/2018-23-51_Emergency.pdf

flipper35 03-22-2019 11:39 AM

Since the Ethiopian captain had not been in a 737 MAX sim, would he have known what to do had he those extra instruments?

Since there was so much news about the Lion Air crash, should he have not know to turn the electronic trim off?

I think Boeing was stupid to rely on one sensor when there is already redundancy available. I think they should have mentioned the new planes had stability control, but the pilots should know how to turn off the stab trim regardless of which system is triggering the stab trim.

flipper35 03-22-2019 11:42 AM

On thing keeps sticking in my head with the Ethiopian crash. The transponder cut off close to 9000' altitude.

Eric Coffey 03-22-2019 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beepbeep (Post 10400297)
...so if I get it right, Boeing extended 60's airframe in order to compete with hot-selling A320NEO without making costly new design, mended aerodynamic controlability issues with badly designed "FBW", self-certified the system (on basis of wrong info given to FAA?).
And then they told nothing to pilots about the system until planes started falling out from the sky...And the failure mode of system itself is such that it needs observant pilot to recognize the issue and flip correct switch?

No, not really. Auto-trim systems have been a "thing" on the 737 for a very long time. Both STS (speed trim) and MTS (Mach trim). The MCAS system on the newer MAX variants is basically like STS 2.0. While I agree that all pilots/airlines should be made aware of even minor changes to flight control systems, the protocol for dealing with a faulty MCAS system has (ultimately) remained unchanged.

Further, I would hope that ANY 737 driver would be an "observant pilot" and be able to deal with an issue for which the procedure is a mandated memory-item.

Further still, The A320NEO has had it's own share of problems, including multiple in-flight engine failures. Not to mention serious additional maintenance issues that have resulted in a high "out of service" (grounding) rate.

Ask Lufthansa how they are liking their recent NEOs deliveries...

flipper35 03-22-2019 11:53 AM

Yeah, but you don't see Airbus pilots riding a stall into the water. Oh wait.

Anyone can allow a plane to crash if they panic. Some pilots are natural fliers, others know only how to deal with things based on rote memorization. If it falls outside the bounds of what they have memorized they fall apart. Remember the old adage about C students still becoming doctors? Pilots too.

javadog 03-22-2019 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flipper35 (Post 10400863)
On thing keeps sticking in my head with the Ethiopian crash. The transponder cut off close to 9000' altitude.

I don't recall the exact number but I think the crash site was at an elevation over 8,000 ft.

flipper35 03-22-2019 12:36 PM

Well that could explain it.

flipper35 03-22-2019 12:53 PM

Interesting theory.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/03/22/bjorns-corner-the-ethiopian-airlines-flight-302-crash-part-2/

beepbeep 03-24-2019 11:52 PM

It is nice read but it is not like compressibility is new thing. it is a known factor on all airframes. The real question IMHO is how MCAS got certified in the first place.

This is also an interesting read (albeit a tad jingoistic here and there):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1249KS8xtIDKb5SxgpeFI6AD-PSC6nFA5/view

red-beard 03-25-2019 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flipper35 (Post 10400862)
Since the Ethiopian captain had not been in a 737 MAX sim, would he have known what to do had he those extra instruments?

Since there was so much news about the Lion Air crash, should he have not know to turn the electronic trim off?

I think Boeing was stupid to rely on one sensor when there is already redundancy available. I think they should have mentioned the new planes had stability control, but the pilots should know how to turn off the stab trim regardless of which system is triggering the stab trim.

That was a software mistake. It should have been two out of two voting instead on one out of two voting. The idea behind the warning light was that if the two disagreed, the light would come on. I do not think Boeing knew they had programmed one out of two voting.

flipper35 03-25-2019 09:35 AM

I thought it was one out of one voting for MCAS. I think on some of the older 737 models they used the left side sensor for part of the systems and the right for others and only both for a limited number for some reason.


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