Using rates has been happening for forever. It is nothing new. Bonds are signalling the risk of recession. Stock buyers aren't so sure but they still expect decent earnings over the next 6 months.

Lower rates does not mean we are printing more money or increasing debt.

I can see a recession this year with a rate cut later in the year.

With the FED monetary safety net we have a fake economy..

Raising or lowering fed lending rates does not make a fake economy.

Increasing debt as a % of gdp does.

What happened to Equities when the FED announced Oe3 in Sept 2012....Equities went up up up...

What happened to Equities when the FED changed policy to a Neutral stance and were reducing liquidity by reducing their balance sheet in 2018. Equities cracked and by years end were collapsing...in the face of that great Trump economy..which should not have happened if the economy was so good an rock solid.

Which makes that Trump economy nothing but bloviation.

When the FED changed back to monetary activism..why everything became swell again with Equities...hitting new highs.

That is the twin devil..America and the rest of the world is burning the candle at both ends..

Debt is being used to keep the spending party going which keeps the lights on and the economy turning.

The American consumer has been tapped out since the RE crash in 08. So the US govt stepped in..

QE is not the same as an interest rate cut. They were adding money to the economy and then " buying" the excess. If all the increased spending (bond sales) had hit the market the rates would have climbed. More supply than demand would require higher rates to push the sale of the excessive amount of bonds hitting the market. The opposite of what is needed during a recession. Spending was the problem. Not the fed lending rates.

Far different than a simple interest rate cut. You are barking up the wrong tree. Lowering the fed lending rate to match economic realities is not "juicing" the economy.

So what happens when everything in between both of the burning ends of the candle gets burned up and the ends meet?

I do think that when the 10 year Treasury gets below 1% you ought to start paying attention.

I see what is going to happen.

Damn, that has nothing to do with fed lending rates. The fed adjusting lending rates to match economic conditions is not the actual CAUSE.. It is a SYMPTOM.

You are still barking up the wrong tree. Lower rates DO NOT CAUSE INCREASED SPENDING OR ADDITIONAL DEBT LOAD WHICH IS THE PROBLEM.

Until 12/14 the FED was printing..the EU kept at it until at least.12/18. The Chinese state owned banks reduced lending requirements...easy money...thus their form of juicing. They are still doing it..

Without fed juicing us equities went flat in 15..

The other tenent of qe3 was keeping interest rates low until the cows came home..it was a 2 pronged policy. Somebody whispered in the FED'S ear that they couldn't keep printing without unintended blow back. So they Tapered off the printing.


FED policy facilitates or enables the govt to borrow..by keeping interest rates low the govt can borrow more at a lessor cost. With the massive quantities of newly printed it insures plenty of liquidity sloshing around to buy debt.)

The FED provides the liquidity and cheap cost so the govt etc can borrow which then gets recycled through the economy. Thus the lights stay on and the wheels turn.

The irony has been that the global economy so worries everybody in the world that they flock to the high ground safety of usd, equities, bonds re. Which has been a boon to the us.

QE 1, 2, 3, or 99 are not interest rate cuts by the fed. A cut in rates is a symptom of the other underlying factors. It adds zero debt.

Where am I wrong? Just a few hours later, it appears I am prescient.

The locus of power is the FED and other Central Banks. Everything else Trump, tariffs the wall trade deals tax cuts Nancy is all noise.Blips on the screen that get a a few days play. Meaningless.

Without Central Bank activism globally the global economy starts to tank. It has no legs of its own. With that being the case you have a fake economy. An Alice In Wonderland illusion where Equities go up on negative news.

It is a perverse reality that is hard to fathom and harder to swallow. In essence you are standing on quicksand.

This is what you fail to get your head around and you are not alone. It leaves you and others in a state of bewilderment trying to figure out how could that have happened..of course you have to lay the blame somewhere.

Uncertainty....at the top? I'm a tariff man bs....

I'll watch...don't like what the FED has done the past 6 months either...disappointed as a fiscal conservative too :(. Cheap credit forever....WTF Tabby....I dunno?

I'm doin' just fine on the sidelines....watching my POT stock go "up in smoke" though ;)...

Ten year expansion is done for....global recession looms....mebbe...WhoTF knows with the T man in charge...Tax/Tariff/T :(?

The artificially low rates we've had for a LONG time now....absolutely causes additional debt loads, but on cars, houses, corporate debt, etc.
It's not fiscally conservative either imo.

There are none in DC....not in my lifetime :(

Current rates aren't artificially low. Inflation at 2% leads to low interest rates. 2% is in the sweet spot.

^^^ If one is OK with fiscally liberal, easy credit mebbe, NEVER to actually be paid back...but not in my world.

How do ya get out of debt....die?

Higher inflation and interest rates aren't the answer.

The Fed is not setting the 2, 5, or 10 year rates. The bond traders move the rates up or down.

Normal interest rates are desirable...the FED didn't quite get there..another 50 basis...before "tariff man" spoke on Dec. 4th and here we are...

I'm not getting back into equities like before....but the FED has thrown me a curve, and there's not a fiscal conservative to be found in DC...not one. Same with many households too...

I'm looking at stuff maturing....as I planned, but getting a full % point less than just 6 months ago...you bet things are screwed up :(. Because I expected the FED to do the fiscally conservative path they laid out....

But 2.9 gdp growth isn't good enough for some....let's juice it some more....wtf :(???

I have no clue where tariff man takes us....just along for the ride...sober ;)

Seems like the path I have recommended has always put me in the money...while others predicting doom have not done so well.

How do you construe full employment and no decrease in wages or employment to be such negative news? There are more jobs than people to fill them, even after so many have returned to the workforce. Any employable person not working now, chooses that path.

I think my prediction of the deal with Mexico yesterday to be pretty darned good. Note that you did not see that anywhere else. Similarly the decrease is interest rates that I have expected.

One does not make money without risk...and while the "sky is falling" methodology works eventually if you proclaim it long/often enough...as cyclical events will eventually result in some losses.

Slightly lower rates are exactly what is needed and were to be expected. Anyone investing in instruments that are dependent on higher interest rates for return are simply making an error. The jobs number was very helpful...and the Tariffs a stroke of genius.