The Chinese Puzzle

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Now one can understand the basis for the considerable success that DR K has had in the foreign policy arena. His understanding of his adversary or counterparts cultural and personality has been the key to that success. However Dr K is still at heart a middle European with a Cold War bi polar mind set. For on what basis should a military style confrontation be discussed, who brought that subject into the room? Further Dr K's take on China is very interesting and accurate to a large extent, however there are areas where his conclusions don't quite match up with Chinese sentiments. For example Dr K says that after the great "Chinese Humiliation" the Chinese wanted to return to their perceived rightful place in the "sun." However this rational doesn't quite play out on the ground so neatly. The Chinese starting after the First Opium War and Chinese Gordon's looting and burning of the Summer Palace in 1860 lost control of their destiny. Foreign influence and meddling in China brought it to the nadir. Thus the Chinese are not merely wanting to stand in the sun again, but are saying NEVER AGAIN will we allow foreign influence to dictate the destiny of China. We can see this rational in nearly all of dealings that we have with China from the investment parameters corporations doing business in China have to operate under, to currency issues, to human rights issues etc that the Chinese are intent on maintaining control of what happens in China. This is quite different than Dr K's take.

Further the Chinese inflection point of burning their Dragon Fleet in 1477 and the great turning inward is still playing itself out today. China only acts on the world stage when their is a need in China to do so. As a Chinese diplomat on the Charlie Rose show said, "The era of Imperialism and conquest is over." So this idea of China being a military threat is a reflection of how the west projects its own perceptions onto others. So understanding this, to what purpose have the Chinese been building up their armed forces in particular creating a blue water navy? One is that the Chinese do not want to be in a position of being bullied with the threat of the superior naval forces of the US in their dealings? Or perhaps the Chinese are taking the long view and have calculated that the economic trajectory of the USA is on a downward spiral and that they should ready themselves to be able to protect their own interests as the US will no longer be able to provide Global Security in the future?

One can also see that in the 2 following years since the Great Economic Crisis of 2008 that the Chinese are calculating the long view about their relationship with America. Starting with their pronouncement of thinking that their should be a New Reserve Currency in the world in early 2009. With 1.6T USD in US currency and T Bills this wouldn't exactly be an optimum economic move for China, so one has to think what brought them to say this? Further the rolling over to shorter maturity dates of their US T Bill portfolio, backing off from purchasing new T Bills to add to their portfolio, their trade agreements throughout the world with Brazil, the Middle East, and Russia being central, where as part of the agreement with Russia is that the USD not be the currency of exchange. The decoupling of the USD from the Yuan in July 2010. The buying of European debt through public and private means. One might conclude that the Chinese are diversifying so as not to have all their eggs in one basket, but also the corollary to this applies and is that China does not want to go down with the American ship economically if the US continues on its current trajectory

[john70t]

(parf-->)
China will eventually lay solid claim to Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong as part of the mainland and nobody will stop them, but they've also learned soft imperialism and have expanded in South America and Africa.

Their demographics and customs are radically changing, and even the self-reflective nation could initiate a version of Lebensraum if conditions were right.

[masraum]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[nostatic]

[Esel Mann]

China is monetarily Diversifying? Perhaps. But how? Remember "money" as we know it is simply a means to simplify exchanging of goods and services. All that debt they hold? Well it's in the form of money! There truly is a difference between being rich and being wealthy. Which one do you think China is at the moment?

Also consider for a moment that essentially everybody and I mean everybody partook of the bubbly. Europe is in the same hole we're in. Even more so than us. So the fact that China is sniffing butts with Europe at the moment is nothing of alarm. It's normal. Playing one side against the other....

I seem to recall (was it a decade or two or so) of the alarm in which Japan came onto the stage, they were supposed to own the world if I recall. Then the alarm was about the Middle East's wealth trying to buy everything up, etc. So how did all that turn out?......

China courts Europe. Ok. China is simply playing the world stage is all. Like any other country. Countries (aka governments) have interests, not friends. Countries like to trump each other, talk smack about each other, one-up each other.

The day to become alarmed about China is the day when either (a) they start playing as well as dictating the game, (b) they start developing a military capability of which is their own innovation.

China a superpower? Sure, why not. There's room in the club. China dominating? I don't see how. Hell we couldn't even dominate and we had a rare instance where we were the only superpower. World domination is a hard thing to achieve these days.

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Originally Posted by Esel Mann

China is monetarily Diversifying? Perhaps. But how? Remember "money" as we know it is simply a means to simplify exchanging of goods and services. All that debt they hold? Well it's in the form of money! There truly is a difference between being rich and being wealthy. Which one do you think China is at the moment?

Also consider for a moment that essentially everybody and I mean everybody partook of the bubbly. Europe is in the same hole we're in. Even more so than us. So the fact that China is sniffing butts with Europe at the moment is nothing of alarm. It's normal. Playing one side against the other....

I seem to recall (was it a decade or two or so) of the alarm in which Japan came onto the stage, they were supposed to own the world if I recall. Then the alarm was about the Middle East's wealth trying to buy everything up, etc. So how did all that turn out?......

China courts Europe. Ok. China is simply playing the world stage is all. Like any other country. Countries (aka governments) have interests, not friends. Countries like to trump each other, talk smack about each other, one-up each other.

The day to become alarmed about China is the day when either (a) they start playing as well as dictating the game, (b) they start developing a military capability of which is their own innovation.

China a superpower? Sure, why not. There's room in the club. China dominating? I don't see how. Hell we couldn't even dominate and we had a rare instance where we were the only superpower. World domination is a hard thing to achieve these days.

Your thinking is typically Western.

The Chinese are moving so as not to go down with a sinking Titanic (USA) if that should occur. With the USA being the largest economy by a factor of 3 and being the Reserve currency the Global economy gets squashed if the USA goes BK.

My two main points about the Chinese are

1. That they are an inward looking country, they they only move on the world stage when there is a need IN CHINA that only can be solved by being involved on that stage

2. The Chinese have been determined not to let foreign influences determine Chinese affairs as happened in the 19th century. They want to be in control of their own destiny.

So the conclusion that can be drawn is that the Chinese are not out for world domination, nor are playing Western style power politics, which is the Western perception. The Chinese goal is for domestic tranquility in the Middle Kingdom.

The "bubbly" as you call it is the western experiment in Social Democracy.

To this end some cite that the Chinee are becoming more aggressive with their new found wealth. This really is not the case the Chinese now see the folly and foolishness of those that they once thought knew what they doing. As such they are now asserting their own perceptions as being as sage as those they once admired.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by nostatic

Very good, a typical Marxist response.

[Esel Mann]

Tabs, well, I am a westerner!

I would reply that my thinking is more practical than simply thinking as a westerner.

To your points (1) and (2). They may apply to China, but in reality do they not also apply to just about every other country as well in today's landscape?

To say China is intent on focusing inward in the manner you suggest is 19th century thinking. They are absolutely interested in the global stage as they should be and frankly deserve to be too. This is the 21st century. It's all global now. A country can't remain powerful and respected by being totally inward and isolationist. I will grant you that they do spent much effort and resources on the inward thing. But that is because if they don't, there will be much unrest in their "kingdom" which in turn would lead to no "kingdom" very quickly unless they keep it in check.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Esel Mann

Tabs, well, I am a westerner!

I would reply that my thinking is more practical than simply thinking as a westerner.

To your points (1) and (2). They may apply to China, but in reality do they not also apply to just about every other country as well in today's landscape?

To say China is intent on focusing inward in the manner you suggest is 19th century thinking. They are absolutely interested in the global stage as they should be and frankly deserve to be too. This is the 21st century. It's all global now. A country can't remain powerful and respected by being totally inward and isolationist. I will grant you that they do spent much effort and resources on the inward thing. But that is because if they don't, there will be much unrest in their "kingdom" which in turn would lead to no "kingdom" very quickly unless they keep it in check.

Your missing the subtlety of my points. China is the Middle Kingdom where they believe themselves to be the center of the earth. They turned inward in 1477 when they burned their naval and merchant fleets because they felt they didn't need to deal with nor look any farther than China. This was the inflection point which has not changed in 500 years. Sooner or later there will be another inflection point where this may all change, but as of now.

The proof that China is not interested is that they take no active role in world politics. The exception to that rule is their economic role and that is to feed China with raw materials or to sell their goods. Which all leads back to internal China.


They agree with the USA on Iran but do nothing, they agree with the USA on Dafur but do nothing. They agree with the US on Afghistan and Pakistan but do nothing and the list goes on.

Your last paragraph is talking through your Western perceptions of what you think China is all about, because that is how you understand the world to be. However that isn't how the Chinese view the world and their place in it.

[LSA]

They only destroyed their fleet because of admiral Zheng He's expeditions in which they percieved the rest of the world to be technologically inferior which it was to China at the time. Ignoring the rest of the world while they caught up technologically bit them in the ass when the west later came back during the imperialist era.

I don't know if they will make the same mistake again just look at Chinese products, sure they produce mountains of stuff but when was the last time anybody associated quality with a Chinese product, they are nowhere near on par with manufactured goods from most anywhere else.

[tabs]

Bump..original Thread on the original Forum it was posted on over 8 years ago. Note the Moderators comment on the Thread, he made no mention of it being PARF material.

This Thread was sent to Charlie Rose and was read by Henry Kissinger who commented favorably upon it as being "in parallel" to his own thinking. The other guest that night was HRC then Secretary of State.