Rail Freight
 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-03/derail-traffic-declines-across-us-railroads-signals-broad-industrial-slowdown

"Rail freight is alternative data that gives us a more transparent measurement of what's happening in the real economy, without government numbers that could be significantly altered for a political agenda

The decline in rail freight is an ominous sign that the economy is headed for a cycle of vulnerability that could trigger a shock so great that a recession would shortly follow."

Tabs & I both said that a downturn was coming. I did so after the election, saying there were forces in play but we all knew who would be blamed when a downturn happened. You can only print money and ignore debt for so long...

Rail freight is alternative data about low value per unit wt. cargo - in between air/truck and barge.

What is vol. trend of FedEx? What about services?

Predicting a downturn in a long in rhe tooth expansion is not really a great stroke of wisdom. Not having it happen 2 years after the election is not really too accurate.

My prediction was end of this year or early next. Probably won't be correct.

One of my oddball indicators is industrial electricity usage from EIA. Peaks in Aug and lower in Feb.
Data is always a couple of months behind (May was just issued last week). It has been slowing.

To divine this stuff do you use a Ouija Board, Tarot Cards or just read Tea Leaves...

Throwing darts at my recession board is my primary indicator

A lot of people have recognized that a strong economy in 2020 means another 4 years for Trump.


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1565127368.jpg

The US government has juiced the economy by 12T USD in deficit spending in 10 years (09-19). While the FED expanded it's balance sheet by 3.7T to 4.5T in newly printed USD...couple that with suppressing interest rates into abnormally low levels for the same decade (the effects of that juicing are in the untold Trillions).

Then Congress enacted Tax Reform which was version 2.0 of Trickle Down, the effect of which juiced corporations with the hopes that they would reinvest the proceeds into new production which would provide jobs etc. Corporations basically seeing that demand for expanded production (this is not to say that they did not reconfigure and or modernize) in the long run was not there demurred from reinvesting. The effects of that Corporate Tax Reform induced sugar high are starting to wear off and the economy is slowing back down to its new post crisis normal.

These policies are what has driven the economic expansion since the Great Crisis. The leadership is still working under the assumption that the pre 08 paradigm of the US economy is still operative not realizing that world had changed the moment GW came on the Telly and said the US was in a "melt down crisis." Just like there was a before the 1929 Wall Street crash paradigm and a post 29 crash paradigm sic reality.

There is nothing normal about the economy since 09, it is a rigged through juicing game where once the juicing stops the economy falters. So long as the economy is being juiced it rumbles and staggers along. The trouble begins when the juicing has a diminishing effect of stimulating the economy and it starts to falter inspite of the juicing. At this moment we are experiencing a slow down as the sugar high of the Tax Reform wears off...it remains to be seen if the economy stabilizes at the old post crash expansion rate or does it continue to falter in spite of all the kings men and horses trying to keep it afloat.

Everything else out there is fking noise..

That is as good as any...

I put papers with different dates written on them out in the yard. Whichever one the dog craps on is the one I go with. Your way sounds a bit cleaner.

FDX just announced on Friday a huge billion dollar hub expansion project to try to keep up with the unprecedented eCommerce demand/ boom.

I’ve always looked at the amount of freight trains full of lumber headed south as my gauge of how things are doing (my line of work depends on a strong construction sector)

There once was an economist that decided that the sudden drop in orders for outhouses was an indication of housing construction going down and this must mean a problem for the economy. It turned out that the economist hadn't considered that there was a trend toward indoor bathrooms.
Could it be that the lower cost of fuel has made trucking more viable than rail?

The government solution to a downturn is to print more money and ignore more debt.

There is 5 miles of container cars sitting empty just outside of Minneapolis on a rail siding. A mix of new and old.

Yep starting with Keynes..

But in earnest since 68

Everything ships in a carton. I always talked with my box supplier(s) and measured that against the freight guys to come to a reasonable guess...

Pundits have been predicting a downturn since before this upturn started. Eventually they will be correct. Like the broken clock being correct twice a day.

I've read the something similar but with cargo vessels

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickwwatson/2019/07/01/freight-slowdown-is-a-terrible-sign-for-the-economy/#7cad33ec3110

My 2015 prediction for next major downturn was 2017.

And here we are in in 2019.

I'm no good at this.

Course, I didn't accurately predict the 2016 election results ahead of 2016 either.

So I'm no good that either.