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I am going to post a few findings from a study in Germany, a pre-print (not available to the public - yet):

- active virus replication in upper respiratory tract & copious shedding during the 1st week of symptoms
- no virus found in blood or urine
- no virus isolated in stool samples, despite high concentrations in respiratory system
- active replication in throat tissues
- COVID-19 can present as a mild upper respiratory tract illness

the last item means any one who appears to have a cold or even allergies could be spreading covid-19

the thing I would like to see is whether active shedding occurs prior to any symptoms...

Old 03-12-2020, 12:17 PM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #1461 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RWebb View Post
I am going to post a few findings from a study in Germany, a pre-print (not available to the public - yet):

- active virus replication in upper respiratory tract & copious shedding during the 1st week of symptoms
- no virus found in blood or urine
- no virus isolated in stool samples, despite high concentrations in respiratory system
- active replication in throat tissues
- COVID-19 can present as a mild upper respiratory tract illness

the last item means any one who appears to have a cold or even allergies could be spreading covid-19

the thing I would like to see is whether active shedding occurs prior to any symptoms...
Early on I had read that there was a thought that it had a 14 day incubation period before symptoms and that it coil be spread burins that incubation period. The point being why it is much worse that Ebola that kills its host quickly and then cannot spread.

I haven't see n anything since and I can't find the source again but there was a lot of speculation in the early days.

To your point, it will be interesting to find out about.

On your other point about appearing to have a cold and spread covid, personally I feel that unless they are trying to prevent it from entering into a country, once it has spread I don't think testing matters as much as staying away from other people when you are sick.

I'm sick with a cold this week. Im just staying in, keeping an eye on it but I don't even want to pass on the common cold. I think more people should be a lot more responsible about flue and cold in general


- - LAST SPRING - -
The scary thing is that I was traveling to a lot of far off lands last year and suffer through a bad cold in a hotel room for a week last year, seems to get better and when I got home I was in bed for another week with flu like symptoms, and a heavy chest for another four weeks including X-rays for pneumonia (negative).

That was I think spring of 2019 and that second wave was pretty rough.
I thought I had shed the cold and picked up a flu, but chest congestion came with the flu like symptoms.

Now from what I read, that's how covid hits you., just when you think you are getting better.

Even then I self quarantined not wanting to spread that.

On CBC radio yesterday they interviewed an expert who says they are now going back to test old samples from past sick patients to see if it might have been circulating much sooner
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Last edited by wayner; 03-12-2020 at 12:49 PM.. Reason: typos from typing too fast
Old 03-12-2020, 12:44 PM
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Old 03-12-2020, 12:48 PM
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CA guidelines.
No mention of TP.

Quote:
California Public Health Experts: Mass Gatherings Should be Postponed or Canceled Statewide to Slow the Spread of COVID-19
March 12, 2020 Cal OES News Center

SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom announced that California public health officials this evening issued an updated policy on gatherings to protect public health and slow the spread of COVID-19. The state’s public health experts have determined that gatherings should be postponed or canceled across the state until at least the end of March. Non-essential gatherings must be limited to no more than 250 people, while smaller events can proceed only if the organizers can implement social distancing of 6 feet per person. Gatherings of individuals who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should be limited to no more than 10 people, while also following social distancing guidelines.

California Public Health Experts: Mass Gatherings Should be Postponed or Canceled Statewide to Slow the Spread of COVID-19 – Cal OES News
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:00 PM
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CA guidelines.
No mention of TP.

Quote:
California Public Health Experts: Mass Gatherings Should be Postponed or Canceled Statewide to Slow the Spread of COVID-19
March 12, 2020 Cal OES News Center

SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom announced that California public health officials this evening issued an updated policy on gatherings to protect public health and slow the spread of COVID-19. The state’s public health experts have determined that gatherings should be postponed or canceled across the state until at least the end of March. Non-essential gatherings must be limited to no more than 250 people, while smaller events can proceed only if the organizers can implement social distancing of 6 feet per person. Gatherings of individuals who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should be limited to no more than 10 people, while also following social distancing guidelines.

California Public Health Experts: Mass Gatherings Should be Postponed or Canceled Statewide to Slow the Spread of COVID-19 – Cal OES News


Time to quarantine the blue states ?
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:02 PM
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What's with MN, are they 'special' or what?


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Originally Posted by pmax View Post
CA guidelines.
No mention of TP.



Time to quarantine the blue states ?
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:09 PM
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Well, Pornhub premium is now free in Italy. If you have a VPN....just saying.

https://www.fantacalcio.it/news/attualita/12_03_2020/pornhub-un-mese-di-proventi-e-premium-a-marzo-gratis-per-litalia-382257


Seriously, If the country (USA) goes into lockdown, like in Italy, I wonder if the government could convince, or pay, Netflix et al to be free? Just a thought.
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:11 PM
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I posted about that German study previously, see e.g.,

Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses | CIDRAP

My hypothesis is that if reports about contagiousness prior to symptoms being evident are true, it is likely that shedding is active at that time... but we will learn more I reckon.

I wonder why a medical doctor apparently thinks that the CDC is involved in some type of election year conspiracy. But I am not gonna spend any time trying to figure that out.

I wonder if 13/13 male American skiers that went to Italy and all got sick within a week and were positive for Covid-19 and 4/13 required hospitalization and 2/13 required ICU are representative statistics.

Did all 13 sleep in the same bed? Stay in the same room? Share tissues and hankies? Cough and/or sneeze on one another?

Did the 4/13 really need hospitalization?

Time will tell.
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:11 PM
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Just read Major declares a Sate of Emergency in New York, looks like you guys are heading the same way as parts of Europe
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Captain Ahab Jr View Post
Just read Major declares a Sate of Emergency in New York, looks like you guys are heading the same way as parts of Europe
Pffft .... San Francisco declared an emergency a few weeks ago and quickly permitted a 30000 person conference in the city.
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mahler9th View Post
I posted about that German study previously, see e.g.,


...I wonder why a medical doctor apparently thinks that the CDC is involved in some type of election year conspiracy. But I am not gonna spend any time trying to figure that out.

.

Unless it is a CIA plot, then the doctor hasn't realized that there is a great big world out there beyond the United States, and that the BBC and CBC and everyone else around the world has been reporting on the virus for some time even though we rest of world citizens ddon't vote outside our own countries. I suppose if domestic news is your only news source and you were into conspiracies...
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:40 PM
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Ireland and Canada have just extended School March break from one week to three weeks today, keeping kids away
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914 wide body hot rod
My 73RSR build http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-911-technical-forum/893954-saving-73-crusher-again.html
Old 03-12-2020, 01:42 PM
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Speaking of Canada, here's the health minister today



30-70% of you here will be infected she said.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:23 PM
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The Brumos collection is closed until April 16th, the 12 Hours of Sebring has been postponed, the final rounds of the TPC are canceled, the main local Cars and Coffee canceled this weekend's event and the cruise lines that I supply entertainment for just canceled the next 3 months.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:24 PM
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Afternoon of March 12th. A younger neighbor just stopped by, asking if we needed anything. Said he'd get it for us if we did. Kind of urging us to stay home, telling us that there were 3 confirmed cases at a nearby Veteran's home. I've been there..visiting a retired chief friend before he died several years ago. It struck me as being a very clean and well run facility.

As a nation, we've been through a lot. We'll get through this as well. It's certainly no longer anything to joke or get political about. We're all in this together, folks.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:26 PM
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UK schools still open, seems like the government is trying to time school, work, travel, crowd shut downs to coincide with the peak of the infections in an attempt to avoid a big spike of cases that will over whelm the health system

Mrs Ahab did a big grocery shop this morning, no sign of panic buying or shortages

My elderly parents are self isolating and avoiding friends/people, helps that my dad is house bound after a replacement knee op

This waiting feels a little like waiting for a hurricane!
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 93nav View Post
Well, Pornhub premium is now free in Italy. If you have a VPN....just saying.

https://www.fantacalcio.it/news/attualita/12_03_2020/pornhub-un-mese-di-proventi-e-premium-a-marzo-gratis-per-litalia-382257


Seriously, If the country (USA) goes into lockdown, like in Italy, I wonder if the government could convince, or pay, Netflix et al to be free? Just a thought.
It's Italy! There's a going to be a baby boom in December!

And in the US with no basketball and other sports, there's going to be a baby boom, too. However, Vegas must be hurting because the sportsbetting is done for now.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:45 PM
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I wonder why a doctors office would state a cure rate for a corona virus. There are no known cures for any of the corona viruses and a real doctor would know that.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:46 PM
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It's an election year in China, South Korea, Italy... ?

Who knew?
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:50 PM
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Some Informatics Geeks have used the data from ~2 days ago to produce these:



Old 03-12-2020, 03:32 PM
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