Question for the smart people about Cornavirus...

[Wayne 962]

Okay, I can't figure something out here. China is saying that the rate of infections is going down, and they have started to open up cafes and other stores (like the Apple stores) across China. Seems good and everyone is very optimistic.

But I'm very confused about something. If they reverse the quarantine and open everything up again, won't it start spreading again in a second wave? China has a huge population - just look at Wuhan alone with a population of 11 million people. If let's say 100,000 people in Wuhan got the virus, and have recovered, then that's still only 1% of the total population. I just can't see why / how this wouldn't immediately flare right up again? I would think that the only way to prevent that from happening would be with a vaccine or with some type of anti-viral drug. As far as I know, neither of those exist at this time.


So, please enlighten me on this, I'm very confused by it.

-Wayne

[island911]

I know a veterinarian who suspects that they are treating people Remdesivir. (Gilead sciences) knocking it off.

[island911]

I mean that the Chinese do what they do, knock off inventions of others.

[speeder]

He said smart people.

[speeder]

J/k, couldn't resist. Kum-buy-ya.

[Cajundaddy]

We probably need an infection specialist to fill in the details but historically, these fast moving viruses tend to blow through the population quickly, hammer the most vulnerable, and fade away just as quickly. Some people have natural immunities or resistance to the new virus, and all those who were exposed but had mild symptoms are now resistant. This brings the epidemic to an end as it becomes self limiting.

This is behind a paywall but describes in detail how the SARS Cov 2003 pandemic was isolated and stopped. It is the older brother of Covid-19 with very similar origin and biology.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2636331/

[wdfifteen]

Perhaps they believe their infrastructure is ready to handle the victims now. Here in the US graph that Dr Fauci keeps showing appears to make the assumption that we can’t limit the number of people who are going to get sick, we can only delay when they get sick so our facilities have time to ramp up capacity.
Edit:
Scott’s models below illustrate another effect of delaying the spread. At some point recovered individuals are able to work freely to get the economy moving again. Social distancing and delaying onset seems to make good sense.

[stomachmonkey]

These models help to explain it visually.

Scroll down for different models ranged by isolation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

BTW, those models are not static animations, the movements of the infected are random every time you rerun a model.

And for those who keep trotting out comparisons to the common flu, which we generally have a vaccine for and ~50% of the population gets, that vaccinated population replaces socially isolated people in these models.

[Sooner or later]

Wuhan is l basically still shut down. Look at tomtom traffic to see there is nothing happening on the roads. They have a couple of apps to track every person..

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Perhaps they believe their infrastructure is ready to handle the victims now. Here in the US graph that Dr Fauci keeps showing appears to make the assumption that we can’t limit the number of people who are going to get sick, we can only delay when they get sick so our facilities have time to ramp up capacity.

We will all get it eventually, the math says at least 80% of us, that's the bottom number.

If we take this years flu numbers, 36M reported cases so far.

That's ~10%+ of the population.

~50% of the population gets vaccinated meaning the real number of infected is 20% of the unvaccinated population.

The 36M number is an estimate based on reported cases.

Flu severity ranges from a mild annoyance to you die from it.

How many people who get the flu see a Dr?

1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4?

1/3 seems reasonable.

That makes the 36M number 108M

~80% of the unvaccinated population on the low side, ~95% on the high side.

There is currently no vaccine for Covid.

We are all getting this.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Wuhan is l basically still shut down. Look at tomtom traffic to see there is nothing happening on the roads. They have a couple of apps to track every person..

Are they shutdown?

Or are people still afraid to go outside?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

Are they shutdown?

Or are people still afraid to go outside?

I don't know but there is nothing going on.

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/wuhan-traffic

[island911]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

We will all get it eventually, the math .....

There is currently no vaccine for Covid.

We are all getting this.

No vaccine, but that doesn't mean there is no treatment. See anti-viral above.

If China is treating people with anti-viral meds it is conceivable that virus shedding drops off precipitously.

edit: Or the Chinese are simply lying and covering up.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by island911

No vaccine, but that doesn't mean there is no treatment. See anti-viral above.

If China is treating people with anti-viral meds it is conceivable that virus shedding drops off precipitously.

Check the models.

Anti viral meds may be in play in China and may be helping, but so does the current extreme measures we are implementing.

And let's be honest here, I'll take a couple of weeks of isolation over Chinese meds every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

They can't even make sheetrock that won't kill you.

Ami right?

I'm right.

You know I'm right.

[911boost]

On a side not virus related note, I have been on a Miami Vice kick lately and in Season 2 Episode 17 there is not only a Porsche 906 but also a 962. Is that your car Wayne?

This is what I could find on it out of curiosity:
Danny's racing car in the episode was a real Porsche 962-HR1 race car that won the IMSA GT Championship three times from 1985 to 1987. It was sponsored by Lowenbrau beer; Danny can be seen drinking Lowenbrau at the cocktail party.

[RSBob]

SMonkey, what a fascinating explanation of how to slow a pandemic. It demonstrates that draconian measures can flatten the curve.

Wayne, your question is valid since it would only take one carrier to start it all over again in the rest of China, unless it dies out during their warm months, which I would rather doubt. but then I only posses average intelligence.

Would love to hear from an epidemiologist.

[island911]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

...

They can't even make sheetrock that won't kill you.

Ami right?

I'm right.

You know I'm right.

he types from a device made in China.

[93nav]

I read a writeup by a western who is currently in Shanghai. The authorities are extremely aggressive about checking peoples temperature and tracking their movements. There are 'checkpoints' everywhere. If they think you have the virus, they stop you (the writer did not say what happened after that). Your cellphone becomes like a personal transponder tracking where ever you have been.

I found it:
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fjesyl/my_impressions_from_shanghai_back_to_business_but/

Part of it:
The "health QR code" (right now on a city and not national level) may become the center piece of social control going forward and combines real name, passport, bank account info and, via phone, realtime tracking of your movement to determine in traffic light colors who is infected and who is not, who may participate in public life and who can't, who must stay at home at all times and who can venture out. It is a completely opaque system with no WHY or HOW, no way to challenge the verdict, only to accept.

[RKDinOKC]

Saw a video from a couple that was invected while in quarantine on a cruise ship in the orient. They were moved from the ship to a hospital when their temperatures rose. They were seniors from Great Britain and were up on thier shots. The lady got mild pneumonia, the gentleman accute pneumonia. They were told it was viral so were only given vitamins and a good diet with the expectations that since it was viral and not bacterial their bodies would fight it off just fine. The man's blood oxygen droppend to 93% and was told if it dropped below 92 he would be put on a ventilator. He did breathing exercises and his percentage rose to 99% and he immediately got better. Now they are just waiting for the remnants of the virus to not show positive in their nasal cavities then they can be released.

Again they were not treated with anything but vitamins and good nutrition and letting the virus run it's course.

Everyone on the cruise ship were given thermometers and told to check their temp 4 times a day and report if it was any higher than normal. They reported their temp going just to the limit and were rushed to a hospital and went thru 4 hours of testing with only their lungs showing any problems. They said they felt fine, except the man had shortness of breath when he tried to walk from the ship to the ambulance.

So I would think that if you can keep from being infected for a few times the time it takes the virus to run it's natural course you will be safe.

[Tobra]

Something to keep in mind, the Chinese have not been truthful all along. Why would they start telling the truth now? Common cold is a corona virus. You can get common colds over and over again. Why would this be different?

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

Are they shutdown?

Or are people still afraid to go outside?

Outside is not the people are afraid of there.

So you would rather be quarantined than take Chinese medications? Do you take any medications at all now? Where do you think they came from?