121000 cases? Is this reality?
 

The local news just reported 121,000 US cases of Covid-19. Is this real?

We have 621 here in Alberta (2/3 are in Calgary) and they only reported 548 so who knows if their US numbers are high or low?

Having my closest neighbors 3/4 of a mile away never felt so good...

Looks that way. Still growing daily, too. It’ll be awhile for sure.

Averaging 18,000 new cases for the last 3 days.

There's a peer reviewed article on Pubmed from China showing an 80% false postive rate on Corona virus testing. Interesting.

Sent from my Galaxy S20+ using Tapatalk

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

https://github.com/datasets/covid-19

^ Don't believe a thing coming out of China right now.

China has reported 3,299 coronavirus-related deaths, with most taking place in Wuhan, the epicentre of the global pandemic. But one funeral home received two shipments of 5,000 urns over the course of two days, according to the Chinese media outlet Caixin.

It’s not clear how many of the urns were filled.

Workers at several funeral parlors declined to provide any details to Bloomberg as to how many urns were waiting to be collected, saying they either did not know or were not authorized to share the number.

Retracted


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

You guys are just at the start of this, here in the UK we're only a little bit ahead of the US on the curve :(

New infections and new deaths start doubling every 2 or 3 days once this thing gets going :(

Some sobering graphs to look at....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

Stay safe, stay away from people, if you can't do for yourself don't be selfish and do it for other more vulnerable folk

Never been so glad I live in a small village and not a town or city

Forced to retract by the communist regime? Hmmmm that's my first thought. Thanks for posting its been a week since I saw it was not retracted then.

Sent from my Galaxy S20+ using Tapatalk

That article is hard to read, being a translation of a Chinese article. But it seems more a reduction of the false positive rate than a retraction.

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

Those numbers reflect positive tested results only because the people feel sick. Then there are the untested people laying in there beds and the carriers with no, or very mild symptoms. So you can probably triple that number.

The numbers are basically meaningless. The actual number of people infected is likely orders of magnitude higher. Without massive testing of the population, we know nothing.

My wife, a doctor, thinks she may have had corona back in February. Returned from a trip to India in mid Feb, immediately got flu like symptoms. All the markers of Corona, including a cough that to date has not went away. She also got a case of conjunctivitis at the same time, which we are now reading is a possible symptom. She called and tried to get tested and was denied.

Point is, the disease was likely already endemic in the US 6-8 weeks ago. With no testing, we simply have no clue who much is out there.

This!

and this...

What speaks against this is that deaths would have been starting to crop up in detectable levels then. Even 8 weeks ago, the medical field knew about COVID-19 and would not have just called it "pneumonia", especially if there was travel history.

G

100k deaths are possible in the US. That may not be even as bad as it could be without action.

These models are not very precise because the initial data to fit to is very sparse so far, but it gives an idea of what is possible. This was posted on the "main" CV thread:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I have a science background and understand exponential growth - yet is still shocking to see it happening.

G

Agree. I was on buisness trip late Jan and was not well for 3 weeks. Mild flu symptoms but good now. We just don't know at this point.

And if countless untested Americans have had it, why no talk of immunity? You should now have antibodies to CV. You fought it off and won. If there are millions like that, the disease will have to decline.

Yet, little or nothing published. Thoughts?

It is still a big if.

If it is 3 million that is only 1% of the population and 1% is large enough to slow the spread very much.

We just don't have the testing capability at the current time to make an actual estimate.

It appears we have a blood test, not a swab test, to check for antibodies.

GIGO.....that's what we have for "statistically valid" data points imo...jmho.

In a sense yes. Korea has a lot data and it is nothing of the sort. We have to listen to the experts and they all say the same thing. No vaccine,. At least we easily transmitted as the flu. Far more deadly than the flu for those in a large demographic.

Fauci

https://youtu.be/8A3jiM2FNR8

South Korea's expert

https://youtu.be/gAk7aX5hksU

Exactly. Are the models using the data out of China to predict?

No model will be correct because every country/area/city has different demographics, density, inbound travel, and shut down method and time frame.

We do know that countries that shut down late are facing catastrophic results in specific areas. Italy and Spain are not a situation we want to find ourselves in. Korea and Japan still had their problems even by taking an early and very proactive response to the threat. It now appears even Toyko is taking a harder stance with business shutdowns increasing. South Kores has been having a 100 new cases a day for the last two weeks even with massive tracking and isolation protocols still in place.

I have been following this model since posted last week.

I understand what is stated in the legend but I can't make sense of the colored "mountain" depicted. Is that simply a range to reflect potential error?

Potential variation. The model cannot predict what methods will be employed to slow growth. Limited action would tend to fall into the top of the range. Heavy handed shutdowns in the lower range.

Maryland just had their first infant loss.

The ‘cleanest’ FOM is deaths. Least amount if competition in the number. Its still climbing fast, and probably will for another week or two.

I agree.

Again, wife is a doctor, and I asked her this exact thing. Answer: we don't know. The issues is that you can't assume that the virus we are dealing with today is the same as the one that was circulating 3 months ago. So if you have already corona, are you immune? Unknown.

But the basics of what you are saying is valid if a person who as had corona is now immune, and was discussed in some circles early on. Tell all the old folks to go home, and have the young people continue as normal. After a few months, the virus will no vector to spread, and die out. The mortality rates convinced officials this was a bad plan.....

How many people suffered through this virus at home without ever contacting a doctor, or getting treatment ? They would be among the numerous statistics that never showed up on government graphs.

There are a lot. No doubt.

We DO know the amount of cases filling hospitals that were late to implement change. About 15% of all currently known US cases end up in the hospital. When an area approaches 1/2% of the population in a localized area the hospitals get overwhelmed and mortality climbs.

NYC is at .25%
Lombardi, Italy was at .35%.

Some areas of NYC and Lombardi are far higher than those numbers and that is what leads to the excessive case load.

I'm thinking Michigan is going to push California to the number four spot in a day or three.

Three counties surrounding Detroit and Detroit City account for the bulk. Medical infrastructure?

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163-520743--,00.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I strongly suspect most numbers are under-reported, or less than actual due to testing. I also suspect China numbers are drastically under reported.

That's why I look at deceased numbers. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Canada tracking USA, doubling approx every 4-5 days.

Not always the case, the common cold for example. There was a report of a Chinese man that had it and got it again a couple months later, was reported for a bit then kind of died in the news cycle not sure of the veracity.

as noted in the main thread..California's numbers are basically useless. They have a 65k test backlog (no results coupled with degrading samples). New York has triple that completed.