Sweden Dealing with Covid the Right Way

[gregpark]

If my math is right, Sweden thus far has lost 1 one hundredth of one percent of their populous to the virus and kept their economy intact and their schools open. We'll see in the end of it was a prudent decision but I don't doubt the USA being in a deep economic depression for quite some time well after the virus has run its course

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by ckissick

The article says the Covid death rate so far is 40 people per million, while the death rate for a typical flu season is 80 per million.

First confirmed case of Covid 19 was January 19 - 78 days ago. Certainly flu season lasts more than 78 days. What is the flu death rate for the last 78 days?

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by gregpark

If my math is right, Sweden thus far has lost 1 one hundredth of one percent of their populous to the virus and kept their economy intact and their schools open. We'll see in the end of it was a prudent decision but I don't doubt the USA being in a deep economic depression for quite some time well after the virus has run its course

It's still hard to say how this will turn out. Even though the Swedish govt. did not require businesses to close, many chose to close or work from home anyways. HS and universities closed, sporting events closed, airlines and public transportation greatly restricted flights and trains. Swedes traditionally have a very one-for-all-and-all-for-one society so they readily volunteer to self-isolate. Their economy is currently running at 50% or less but bars and restaurants are still open. A grand experiment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by island911

Gossip. The fact of the matter is we had Kinder - university Pertrie dishes of snot-nosed kids to partying young adults congregating during the contagion period. You have to search hard to find otherwise young, healthy people with no known underlying conditions succumbing to this virus. The stats are pretty clear on who is at risk here.

Party away and collect an early inheritance - double win for them!

[1990C4S]

Originally Posted by gregpark

If my math is right, Sweden thus far has lost 1 one hundredth of one percent of their populous to the virus and kept their economy intact and their schools open. We'll see in the end of it was a prudent decision but I don't doubt the USA being in a deep economic depression for quite some time well after the virus has run its course

It's early days, 1.48% of those with the virus are dead. They could have up to 500,000 deaths under the 'infect the herd' mentality.

The percentage of the populace that has died to date is hardly a usable statistic at this point.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

Seems premature to suggest that any country is handling this outbreak 'the right way'.

Six months from now, or a year, people can look at the results. No one knows where this is going to end.

The absence of people succumbing in any age group ignores the overall load on the health care system, and that puts everyone at risk.

Lastly, Sweden has 59 deaths per million people. USA has 38, Norway has 16, Canada has 10. How can people tout Sweden as the solution?

Just a little. Thanks for a voice of reason.

The entire population of Sweden is 10 million. NYC is 18 million. It's tiny. What may work in Sweden may not work in other countries with significantly higher populations and densities.

[Jim Richards]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Sweden is running a grand experiment in herd immunity somewhat like the "Chicken Pox parties" of the 50s. We will know a year from now if this turns out to work better for them. My expectation is that a lot of otherwise healthy Swedes will die in the process and a national kill rate of maybe 400/M. Just a wild guess based on Italy and Spain deaths. Time will tell.

https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/

[Sooner or later]

Half of Sweden homes have one resident. Highest rate in Europe.

Hard to spread at home when no one else is at home.

[jyl]

Sweden’s economy is as interconnected with the global economy as any. We are starting a global recession, and Sweden will get hit whether they shut down or not. Their herd immunity approach will benefit specific parts of their economy (dining, retail, etc) for a period of time.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

Sweden is not significantly different than any other country with respect to infection rates:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

The chart does not correct for the size of a country. Comparing Sweden's number of new cases with the US without correcting for population is meaningless. OF COURSE the US has more cases.

Comparing the US to European Union, makes sense.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by red-beard

The chart does not correct for the size of a country. Comparing Sweden's number of new cases with the US without correcting for population is meaningless. OF COURSE the US has more cases.

Comparing the US to European Union, makes sense.

Or testing. The US has tested a higher % of the population. The more that are tested, the more cases that are found. 6,271/million vs 5,415

[red-beard]

^^^Good Point!

[RSBob]

Sweden is our Alabama or Mississippi, just wait a couple of weeks to see the result.

[aigel]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Half of Sweden homes have one resident. Highest rate in Europe.

Hard to spread at home when no one else is at home.

No kidding! Compare that to Italy where extended families gather every Sunday for big dinners with grandma and grandpa ... and lots of kissing ...

As I said in another thread where we talked about Sweden ... "herd immunity" is 70-80% of the people. There will be a lot of suffering if you need to get to that level in the first wave, without ANY established treatments. The UK had a similar approach but pulled the plug when they were starting to stare a quarter million deaths in the eye.

I still hope we learn something from Sweden's "soft closing" about how to turn back on some areas without causing a second wave?

G

[livi]

As in any contagious context isolation and quarantine is the key. In many countries its made mandatory. In Sweden its a strong recomendation. As a people we are conformists and tend to rely on authorities and government. Hence the calculation from the health ministry is that we will reach basically the same level of isolation as in mandatory countries. In Italy a recomendation would probably be useless. Here it makes more sense.
No one can at this point predict which is the better strategy. And it probably differs in different populations.
An evaluation will probably take 1-2 years at least.

I am very eager to see the results of future testing immunoglobulin G and M (antibodies) to see how large percentage that has actually had the infektion. That will be very informative.

Take care, stay safe and stay home if at all possible.

[1990C4S]

Originally Posted by red-beard

The chart does not correct for the size of a country. Comparing Sweden's number of new cases with the US without correcting for population is meaningless. OF COURSE the US has more cases.

Comparing the US to European Union, makes sense.

The number of cases is not the relevant point.

This interactive charts the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past week vs. the total confirmed cases to date. When plotted in this way, exponential growth is represented as a straight line that slopes upwards. Notice that almost all countries follow a very similar path of exponential growth.

OP supposed that Sweden has a superior solution, the graph shows they are experiencing similar increases in infection rates are not significantly different.

[Sooner or later]

Sweden reported 96 new deaths today. Up to 687 total. 448 in the last 7 days.

Norway and Finland reported a combined 10 and a combined total of 133.

[island911]

Corona viruses make up a good portion of cold viruses. As such, the expectation is that people who have and survive it are then inoculated against future contact. --just as it works for other colds and flu.

Of course this virus may do what viruses do, and mutate. It may also stay dormant, only to cause people problems later in life. (think chickenpox / shingles).

Something will kill each and every one of us. Maybe an asteroid. So, clearly, our only solution is to cower in fear.

[tadd]

Island:
That is not quite true. SARS and MERS ususally establish a 2-3 year immunity.

There are many Corona types that only establish a weeks to months immunity.

So this bit remains to be seen.

[island911]

Originally Posted by tadd

Island:
That is not quite true. SARS and MERS ususally establish a 2-3 year immunity.

There are many Corona types that only establish a weeks to months immunity.

So this bit remains to be seen.

I didn't say, or mean to imply, indefinite future immunity.

And my post clearly indicates that we don't know how this will go.