Originally Posted by Seahawk (Post 10877814)

https://www.jpost.com/international/uk-covid-19-vaccine-trial-may-fail-due-to-low-transmission-in-population-629082

Hopes that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready by September are hanging in the balance, as the scientists developing it are concerned that a slowdown in the rate of infection in the general population could invalidate the human trials currently taking place.

Prof. Adrian Hill, Director of the Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, has told The Telegraph that there is only a 50-50 chance that the vaccine his team has been developing can be successfully tested.

The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally. However, that is unlikely to happen if the virus is not spreading, meaning that no conclusions can be drawn one way or the other about the vaccine’s efficacy.

Hill expects that fewer than 50 people in the test population will catch the virus, but if less than 20 test positive the results may be useless.

It is a race, yes. But it’s not a race against the other guys,” he said. “It’s a race against the virus disappearing – and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.

“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining.”

The Oxford team is not the only one facing this predicament. So far, eight potential vaccines have reached the stage of human trials: four in China, two in the US, one in Germany and the one of the Oxford team. With cases dwindling, all of the teams are looking for hotspots globally where they can conduct their trials.

“You think we’ve got a problem?” Hill asked. “What would you do if you were in China? There are three Chinese companies looking for Phase Three and there’s no COVID in China. So what do they do?”

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 10877866)

Vaccines for SARS and MERS have been in development, and at least one MERS vaccine is fairly far along, but there is no commercial market, little funding, and no practical way to do clinical trials because these diseases are largely gone/dormant.

The common cold is caused by dozens of different viruses, not a single virus that you can target with a vaccine. Think about the commercial market for a vaccine against a disease that no one considers more than a minor nuisance, that is only (maybe) 20% effective. Who would invest several billion dollars in such a project?