Captain's log?

I'm looking for the next "sure thing"

I realize your advice is worth exactly what we paid for it, but nevertheless I applaud you guys for trying to make a firm-ish prediction.

The current market reminds me of that race motor that seems to be running strongest right before it goes boom.

The 2020 version of "plastics" is apparently "disruptive technology."

This is how I've felt for a couple of years now.... but the FrED keeps advancing the timing :(. I'm out.... but watch from a distance...

APPL going from a market cap of 1T to 2T in two years, P/E ratios that are wacky....

At my age.... no thanks. And corrections like I've rode out before....several times... not me, not this time. Sammy has been "market timing" quite successfully in these threads... rolling the dice and winning imo. It's a hoot until it ain't...

No more corrections for me....btdt... a few times.

Good luck all!

My stock picking skillz are simply awesome when I ignore the turds I've flushed :D.

The race car engine analogy is spot on IMO. But if you were driving a car at Le Mans, you'd try to eek out every last lap on that engine before it lets go. No one would quit with a half hour left in the race because the engine MIGHT not make it til the end.

That's when greed overtakes common sense in the market. Eventually it'll go bad and I think most folks feel that will be sooner than later.
So do we sit on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable, or profit a little from the good and hopefully bail right before the bad gets here?

It depends.
It depends on a person's financial situation, age, risk tolerance, etc.

A retired person living on fixed income, has zero risk tolerance and needs to be in annuities and not equities.

A 25 year old with a budding career should be heavily into growth stocks with significant risk.

A retired guy with more than enough $$ to comfortably live out his years and then some, can afford to take on risk. But probably shouldn't.
Even if the little guy on his shoulder keeps telling him
I have it set up so that less that 20% is in large cap equities and the rest is in fairly safe bonds and such.
And even then I have no more than 2.5% at risk.

The dangerous part of a stop-loss is you are already set to sell low.
Possibly a dumb move in the long term but I figure a little loss is better than a big loss.
I know, deep.

Worst case is something disruptive hits and drives the fund prices down enough to trigger the stop losses, and then the prices recover the next day. I'd give up 2.5% plus whatever the stock increases beyond what it was. Totally defensive.
That's much better than riding the market down 30% and then wondering how many years it'll take to recover and if or how much I might have to change my lifestyle.

Bottom line, I still play because it's fun and mostly for my kids anyway.
I just can't figure out why there is so much free candy under that big box, and why it's propped up with a stick with a string tied to it.

Then wouldn't it make sense to invest in index-based funds that "always" go up?

That does seem to the Conventional Wisdom that has been more or less correct over the preceding decades. There have been a number of things that the Conventional Wisdom seems to think that have not exactly worked out over the last decade. Namely that large stimulus would result in the economy getting back on it's legs where it would be bizness as usual, and that large increases in Monetary supply would result in inflation. Neither has come true. The Equity markets falling off a cliff in 2018 dissuaded the former notion and not being able to get to the target inflation rate made the later into a lie.

Equities will go up until they don't.

I take a view of the landscape from a different perspective. Since so much of the CW seems to be turned topsy turvy when gauging it from the current CW one has to think what is wrong with this perspective. It is only when you start to think, "HEY there is a different Paradigm at work here, then it all does start to make sense."

Even the lack of the Genius's not catching on, where they continue to try the same CW over and over again thinking the results will be different this time makes sense. that mindset is all part of the new paradigms process...

Powell speaks on Thursday, where one suspects his statements will be well received by the Wall Street Squirrels...

Then there will probably be Stimulus 2.0 by Congress...it does not bode well if you have people going hungry and becoming homeless.

All should be well in the Garden till the election results are in...

At some point the US credit rating is going to be downgraded.. Debt creation is far exceeding tax revenues.. There are rumblings at FITCH already. So far there has been an air of forgiveness as the economic crisis brought on by the CV is creating extraordinary measures.. Sooner or later that forgiveness wears thin.


It is really hilarious though that none of you notice the water sloshing around your ankles...

Plastics.

Speaking the truth!

One of the old guys my dad surfs with has been in acrylics for decades. Has done well, no crazy wealth but raised a family, lived comfortably, etc. He was telling my dad he had a 5 year plan to retire and sell the company and put that plan into action in the middle of last year.

As of June, he said he hit his 5 year financial goal already (all thanks to covid) and was able to sell his company for ~3x what he was hoping to at the end of the 5 years. 38 years in the plastics industry he said there has never been anything like the past 6 months, orders are months out and companies offering bounties to move ahead in the queue. Very nice guy so I'm glad for him, what a way to finish off a career!

Everybody has wallets filled with Plastic...the government has Plastic, Corporations have Plastic....
.

There has been this huge transfer of wealth from people who have assets and are now being paid virtually nothing for the use of their money..to the debtor.. We find the debtor is too big to fail...so you have to keep adding good money after bad to keep them propped up. Where many Corporations have gotten on the bandwagon and have loaded up on debt till their balance sheets are nearly Zero. They have leveraged their own assets so as not to be stuck with a none performing asset..With debt they can pyramid their wealth.

Corporations buy back their own shares where the value of those Equities held has continually gone up and the company market cap increases...... if you can't make money the old fashion way by actually doing something you can pyramid it through leverage and stock price accretion.

What's really hilarious is how much $$ I've made since you started posting the doom and gloom on this forum.

but the car is not as nice looking

A lot of people here don't got the savvy, because I keep hearing in their tone.. that it is biz as usual and or is swell and how can they play the game to make money. Or if we enact this or that policy things will be swell again.

I consider it to be TABS's burden to bring enlightenment to the Wogs...they certainly need some bringing to Geezus..

I have long since stopped letting stupidity prevail by acquiescing to it...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1071329-one-second-go.html


Ok your bank accounts have grown fatter, but it comes at the expense of the intrinsic value of those USD's you hold. So in the end your fat bank account don't mean nothin if the value of those dollars is nil. Also consider that by pulling the rug out form the intrinsic value of the USD...they have destroyed the foundations of the economic system, to the point where it will collapse and all you have will be wiped out..

The FED is doing it for the good of the collective...

Enlightenment only to Wogs? Wogs is an ethnic slur.

Today's bit of 'doom and gloom'....not.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-august-26-2020-222001077.html

I think anybody paying attention is and has been worried about irrational exuberence in the markets for a long time now.

The thing that sucks is what else are you going to do? I was tempted in earnest to "time the market" and pull alot out in the april timeframe. I have been conditioned not to do this by all the experts. It would have been a terrible move and Im thankful (for now) that I have stayed the course.

I wish I had more of an entrepreneurial spirit or had any real interest in being a landlord again. Because the only seemingly sensible way to invest currently is investing in your self and money making ventures where you control most of your destiny.

Just as a side note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not representative of the overall market. S&P500 is usually quoted as "the market". the DJIA is made up of 30 stocks and is price weighted.

Over long periods - 10 years or more, the stock market goes up. It goes up two out of three years. So if you're not planning on touching your money in the next 5-7 years, leave it in the market.

It is the moral and ethical responsibility of the WOKE to bring enlightenment to barbaric little monkeys who live in the absence of the light regardless of their ethnicity .

But then again your misinterpretation of my statement is further proof that you are in desperate need of enlightenment son.