Is Macro A Kind Of A Macaroni?"
 

For a group with a modicum of wealth as the P Board Boyz have your knowledge of the Macro economy is pitiful. Your well being is directly tied to the vicissitudes of that economy. You Boyz can't see nor comprehend the mechanics of it.. as there is little to to NO mention of it in the missives posted here. "Uhhh is Macro a kind of a Macaroni?" :rolleyes:

My tidings have been ominous since 2008. I have not changed my prognosis one iota since then. The situation has steadily deteriorated since that date in a process of decline. 2020 is the other half of the 2008 storm which I long so said was going to come.. It is getting to the point where the USA can no longer print nor borrow it's way of of this mess." And that is the only remedy that they have.

And what delusion have the Progressive's come up with...Modern Monetary Theory..where it says you can print and borrow all you want and the sky isn't the limit.. and the ohh so familiar affirmative refrain is..... "Well nothing has bad happened yet!" which is a variation of what the genius's on this Board like to chant like Krishna's at the airport...'Well the dome you said was gona happen hasn't."

As Jesus said, "No one knows the day nor the hour, only God does."

Dow at 30,000. Tabs... increase your dose of thorazine and top it up with a few hits of jack... you will be feeling like a trumpette in no time.....

Yes, it’s a big roni like Manicotti, not the microroni like stars.

...or, if you tend towards more complicated macaronis..

Sub Tabs_Spewinator(trigger As String)

Dim c As Integer
Dim resp As String

Select Case trigger
Case "Dow is going up"
resp = "You boyz will never understand"
Case "Life is good"
resp = "When will you learn you're just a pawn"
Case "I'm optomistic about the future"
resp = "I've been telling you for 10 years, Armageddon is just around the corner"
End Select

For c = 1 To 10
Print: resp
Next c

End Sub

Lipids!
Proteins!
Nucleic Acids and Carbs!

All of these are
Macro-molecules!

to be polite, you have become the Poster Boy of what I am talking about.

There is a direct correlation between Equity pricing and the amount of money the FED has printed since March (3T). While the Main Street economy has crashed and is burning..

The FED has exceeded their mandate by buying ETF's, Corporate Bonds, and Muni Bonds for the first time as well as Mortgage Backed Securities..

The worlds Central Banks have printed 20T since March.

The Velocity of Money is at less than 1.2. Which means the economy is virtually nil.

The USD has been falling since November.. The ADVERSE SHIFT is seemingly taking place as USD is no longer being seen as a safe haven. the Chinese are selling off a portion of their US Treasury position.

80% of American re living from paycheck t paycheck

20M are unemployed, 9.9M are not up to date on paying their rent or mortgage. the Food Bank lines stretch for miles..the BK's are multiplying..

The Labor Dept said this week that their Unemployment stats are INACCURATE..

So as the world burns Equities fiddle...

We're too close to the forest to see the trees Tabs.

A macaroni is a fop, a British dandy - the kind of person who would walk around wearing dragon ass jeans.
The Brits made fun of American yankies for not being up on the current Brit macaroni's fashion :

"Yankee Doodle went to town
A-riding on a pony,
Stuck a feather in his cap
And called it macaroni. "

Simply put since 2008 all that has been done is to kick the can down the road by Printing and Borrowing..well we are coming to the end of the road. Cause you can't pretend to be MC when you don't have a job, can't pay the rent and don't have money to buy food.

Now some of you are becoming 401K millionaires where everything seems swell..but what is not apparent is that the FED has turned your $$$$'s into MONOPOLY MONEY.. where now the world is beginning to reject them.

BTW since 2008 there never was or is a solution that would restore REAL prosperity to the USA. That was when the GREAT AMERICAN POST WW2 PROSPERITY BUBBLE finally went bust. Instead of trying to deny it by printing and borrowing, Americans could have faced reality by looking at themselves in the mirror and sucked it up. But that didn't happen now did it,

I'm RICH!http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1607733432.jpg

You see the trees but not the larger forest.. but you essentially got it right.

I see the mechanics of it because I can stop and pull back to take the long view. It is like seeing all the balls on a pool table in motion at the same time and knowing what their trajectories are. The trajectory went wrong in 68 with LBJ and the SS Trust into the GA..since then it has been one bad decision after another.

At first it seemed a small thing as the USA was so wealthy, but as the wealth was dissipated it became harder and harder to maintain the illusion.

Today the powers that be are hesitating to pull the trigger on more printing and borrowing.. The question then becomes do they know something that we don't as a causation for the hesitation? The thing that they might know is that they realize that we have truly come to the end of the road where you can't kick the can anymore..

Who do you attribute that "I'm rich" quote to....Bezos, Gates Buffet?

But you got the message.

Parker Brothers

Well, Tabs, you do have same valid reasoning behind your logic.
Here’s my $0.42:
1. Lots of folks in the US didn’t learn from the dot.com bubble nor the 2007/2008 housing crisis. Those who did are likely heading into retirement off of their nest eggs. Further: the current financial “playas” didn’t live through those eras where there was swift and vast financial collapse. (Required viewing to come up to speed on these eras: The Big Short & Valley of the Boom)

2. While the gobberment continues to print more Monopoly money, the average American consumer has leveraged their borrowing power and pushed themselves way beyond any safety nets they may think are in place. Sadly, debt is no longer a four-letter word.

3. The next generation of young adults feel no obligation to work hard for their money, but rather have an expectation that someone, anyone, will bail them out of their financial mess. (Here’s a solution of the current student debt crisis: you borrowed it, you pay it back!)

4. The US is losing ground in the tech and technology-as-a-service sectors. Yes, the POTUS did a lot to bring back manufacturing to the US, and got more Americans working. But are they the right jobs for a sustainable future? Do Americans want those jobs? Are the salaries from those jobs able to sustain our consumer-oriented, borrow heavy society?

5. Oh yeah - and there’s this global pandemic going on - which will take years to get out of, financially speaking. This black swan event only accelerated what may be to come if we continue going down this road.

Does this mean that I’m going to sell all my wares and build a log cabin in the woods and stock up on spoons? Nope - not at all. What it does mean is that I am going to focus on old school financial methods: live BELOW your means, pay off your debts, save up for the future, and diversify your investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maybe even precious metals.

...and if my plan works out, I will buy a small island in the Pacific (Perhaps Ban Island?), declare myself “Supreme Ruler Zoltan,” and tell the penguins to keep marching....

Or maybe I should just stick my head in the sand with the hopes that everything will be ok tomorrow...

Tabs equating things with food yet again...

It took 1000 years for the Roman Empire to collapse,

Keep up your prognosis.... ...but I think you’re a few centuries early yet.

Have you seen the Food Bank lines that are miles long...

Dave Chappelle but Sooner cut if off a bit short.

Honestly? No.

Is that the Eastern Roman Empire or the Western Roman Empire?

Please advise as to why you think that the USA is in such good and sustainable condition?

You should watch the news..

Bad news is the news. I pay attention to what's going on around me. There's a metric sh.t ton of money out there and people are spending it. I don't know where it's all coming from but this year has been a struggle for me buying inventory, not selling it.

#1. That insight about the current crop of financial Playa's was put out there by myself about 10 years ago disseminated to CR and CNBC in particular.

One afternoon I sent CR an email about the Arab Spring...that evening in Cairo he repeated what I had sent him. Later it was repeated by BO's National Security Adviser, who later went to the UN as ambassador after Susan Rice stuck her foot in her mouth.

#2. In the 1980's Ronnnie told the American people that they were "Exceptional" as they handed out the Credit Cards so that the delusion of being a prosperous nation could be maintained.. That was the beginning of the Debt Bubble that went bust in 08, has been papered over with more printing and borrowing till now. Now the ability to continue down that road has suddenly become an iffy proposition. The wobble in the financial system occurred on 9/17/19 when the overnight lending rate went to 10%, the FED stepped in with 200B in liquidity and had to continue to do so through December 2019.

#3. Living in an indulgent, instant gratification society where all needs are taken care of and that is the parents.

#4. The answer is no on two counts. First American jobs are paying less due to Global wage competition and secondly The Global Economy of Scale has grown to proportions where the US consumer can not consume enough of the product produced to sustain that economy.

#5. See #2. The CV was only the match that lit the fuse. Even before the CV in 9/17/19 the Financial system wobbled like a boxer who had taken one too many punches. So the answer is the US in particular had already crashed so we had already gone down that road and were coming to it's end. The last chance to turn this around was squandered in the response to the 08 crisis. We didn't learn anything. To know that all you have to do is listen to the Boyz on this Board...


Including yourself. All you have worked and saved for is all for naught. Those accounts that you have may look fat but the value of it has been stolen away in the night by incessant printing of currency. The joke is on you and those like you who think that the old paradigm still applies.. Why do you think that a cash rich company like Apple would leverage itself to the hilt?

The answer is so that they could buy back their own stock and watch it rise in value. So they made more money doing that than they could by making and selling product. In a way they are hedging their position against the decline in value of the currency. Equity prices have become inflated..in the face of a declining USD. BTW seeing and understanding this sort of insight is a quality that gets listened to.

TABS, what is your solution...would you have us pull all our accounts, quit our jobs, move to the mountains and become homesteaders ?

We could buy a plot of land, harvest the lumber, build a cabin, utilize a rain catchment system for our water, a composting toilet, an array of solar for our power, and a bank of batteries for the power storage. We could raise chickens, and goats, have a large garden, with a greenhouse for the off months, catch trout in our local streams, and bag a deer, or two every year ?

I'm already half way there, and far more self dependent than most...in a SHTF scenario, I will be fine, my biggest hurdle will be keeping the marauding masses away from my farm !

I have always said you have to play the game as if the music will never end. You keep your accounts. I just figure they will be gone when the shyte hits the fan..it is the COST OF DOING BUSINESS>

It is the outsider hedge position that you will have to rely upon. Gold Silver Guns n ammo...and your plot of land. It will be about survival.

Ahh the Jeffersonian Agrarian lifestyle...

Farm livin' is the life for me
Land spreadin' out so far and wide
Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside

There never has been a solution or fix to keep this system viable or sustainable. The die was cast long ago..the course set..

All the kings horses and all the kings men could not put this economy back together again. It is a perceptional mindset set thing... everybody thinks that they are entitled to have a modern lifestyle full of amenities( like refrigerators). My parents knew what to do without meant.

And you will learn...