Bitcoin crash coming?

[cstreit]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Well, I would say there are some striking similarities between the two, but I wouldn't call them the same thing. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency, a role it may lose in the not-so-distant future. But having that role today means that the dollar is more useful than gold (can't buy a Big Mac with gold, or anything but US dollars for that matter).

I suppose you're right about the principle, but the difference in scope and scale is not comparable. I can piss in the ocean and I will technically be raising the level of the ocean. Or, an ice shelf can melt and raise the level of the ocean too. We're both right - we're both raising the ocean levels, but the scope and scale of the two are incomparable. I think that's probably where we're at with Bitcoin versus the dollar.

And how would Bitcoin achieve that level? First of all, I imagine it would have to become much more stable...

-Wayne

Wouldn’t argue with that. The first chunk of Bitcoin I mined back in the day cost me $45 to put into my wallet. It didn’t matter if it was $1 or $1,000,000. When I dug into it, that’s when I learned it would never be a viable replacement for fiat currency.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Skillet83

Nothing wrong with throwing money at something that has given 10x gain in the last year.

It's just not for me at the moment. We're investing in real estate and race cars right now. So far, I've done very well with both of those with (what I believe to be minimal risk). If I invested in crypto right now, even a little, it would take up a tremendous amount of time researching and watching. Right now, it's just a hobby to watch and see what happens...

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by ShopCat

Isn't the burden of proof on you to provide data to back up your claim that Bitcoin is ONLY used as store of value or for illegal purchases? Its easy to see there are other transactions taking place since there are retailers like microsoft and overstock that accept it.

Just to be a wiseass and have some fun - that would be like you saying Big Foot exists, and putting the burden on someone else to prove that he doesn't?

I can point to numerous articles that make the claim that Bitcoin is not used for any day-to-day legal transactions. That's not to say those are all false, they are indeed just articles on the Internet. But I also cannot find anything that indicates that anyone uses it for anything remotely practical.

Again, personally, I like semi-real assets in general...

-Wayne

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Just to be a wiseass and have some fun - that would be like you saying Big Foot exists, and putting the burden on someone else to prove that he doesn't?

I can point to numerous articles that make the claim that Bitcoin is not used for any day-to-day legal transactions. That's not to say those are all false, they are indeed just articles on the Internet. But I also cannot find anything that indicates that anyone uses it for anything remotely practical.

Again, personally, I like semi-real assets in general...

-Wayne

Except you made the first claim, not me, then asked me to disprove your claim when I said I disagreed. But overall I agree its not the most practical right now, maybe never.

Also, at the current $30 per transaction, isn't the crossover point with credit cards just $1,000? Plus there are already feel-ess and very small fee coins.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by ShopCat

Except you made the first claim, not me, then asked me to disprove your claim when I said I disagreed. But overall I agree its not the most practical right now, maybe never.

Also, at the current $30 per transaction, isn't the crossover point with credit cards just $1,000? Plus there are already feel-ess and very small fee coins.

Sure, yes - other coins may be better suited for use as currency - no debate there.

I think the general consensus is that Bitcoin is not terribly useful at this moment, except as a speculative asset? For that, it's very useful indeed based upon its performance.

-Wayne

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Sure, yes - other coins may be better suited for use as currency - no debate there.

I think the general consensus is that Bitcoin is not terribly useful at this moment, except as a speculative asset? For that, it's very useful indeed based upon its performance.

-Wayne

Also could be multiple coins who "win out" and compete for use.

A good watch here, talk with both obstacles and pros, from 2018 but still relevant. https://youtu.be/IjHd8nzdOOs?t=471

[Skillet83]

BTC is still blasting fellas, not too late. My XLM (stellar.org) is up 1000% since October, a true 10 bagger. ETH rocking it. SLT (smartlands platform) is coming to a tier 1 exchange soon, up 1500% in 90 days. This was a hobby for a while, but just farting around with a trade here and swap there, have blown into substantial holdings. We are still in the 1st inning for a bit. This is going to go parabolic when the ETF's come online. Get it while it's cheap.
I am getting 5% on my bitcoin, paid daily. Flare Networks are releasing their Spark Tokens end of this QTR. Anyone that held XRP gets the tokens from a snap shot back in Dec. Free money for those that held. Speaking of Flare Networks, look up farming and staking. This is a literal cash generating machine. Check out AAVE. It is literally endless the opportunities here.

[McLovin]

Having gotten in starting in November, I’ve now made some real money on Bitcoin.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by Skillet83

This is a literal cash generating machine.

Cash in crypto, or USD cash? It's my understanding that all of these cryptos are very difficult to convert back into dollars, and then (legally) have to be declared as a capital gain on the tax returns. On this year's return, there is a question as to whether you have invested in crypto over the previous period. That would probably be a big audit flag for the future, I would think?

As I understand it, the reason the NFTs were so popular is because they were paid for in crypto currencies that couldn't easily be converted to US dollars (also without generating a taxable event). It remains to be seen if a purchase in Bitcoin (of an NFT or any tangible object) would be a taxable event.

PayPal sat (and still does) in this grey area for a long time as it is not a bank, but acts like one. I can't recall what PayPal reports to the IRS - distributions (withdrawals?) either...

-Wayne

[sammyg2]

“Does not the stuff appear as beautiful to you, as it did to my lord the wise man?” asked the thieves of the Emperor’s second advisor.

“I certainly am not stupid!” thought the man. “It must be, that I am not fit for my good job! That is very odd. However, no one shall know anything about it.”

And so he praised the stuff he could not see. He declared that he was happy with both colors and patterns. “Indeed, your Imperial Majesty,” he said to his emperor when he returned. “The cloth which the weavers are preparing is extraordinarily magnificent.”

The whole city was talking of the splendid cloth, which the Emperor had ordered to be woven.

Finally, the Emperor himself wished to see the costly material while it was still in the loom. He took many officers of the court and the two honest men who had already admired the cloth. As soon as the weavers saw the Emperor approach, they went on working faster than ever although they still did not pass even one thread through the looms.

“Is not the work absolutely magnificent?” said the two officers of the crown, already mentioned. “If your Majesty will only be pleased to look at it! What a splendid design! What glorious colors!” and at the same time they pointed to the empty frames; for they imagined that everyone else could see this exquisite piece of workmanship.

“How is this?” said the Emperor to himself. “I can see nothing! This is indeed a terrible affair! Am I a simpleton, or am I unfit to be an Emperor?

https://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/68/fairy-tales-and-other-traditional-stories/5637/the-emperors-new-clothes/

[Wayne 962]

Okay, so there's a few ways of looking at crypto currencies:

a) It's the next best thing since sliced bread and will be a goldmine

or

b) it's a scam and "the emperor has no clothes".

Could be either one. I like to look to history to see if one can predict the future. Although there hasn't been anything specifically identical to crypto in the past, there have been "the next best things" that have not succeeded in the long run (I can think of a few).

What I'm really curious about though, is what in the past has been successful and could be a model for crypto in the future. Off the top of my head, I cannot think of anything.

I also think the whole energy-usage component of crypto is insane.

-Wayne

[McLovin]

It’s super easy to convert Bitcoin and other cryptos to cash. You just press a button and it’s done.

If it’s a scam, it’ll be the greatest financial scam in history. Huge mainstream companies, funds etc. have hundreds of billions invested in it. One might argue it’s now too big to fail.

That being said, it still makes me nervous. I have significant money in it now. I don’t plan to hold it forever, but I don’t have an exit plan yet.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by McLovin

I don’t plan to hold it forever, but I don’t have an exit plan yet.

Based upon historical precedent, if everyone else thinks the same thing, then isn't that one of the defining characteristics of a bubble?

-Wayne

[pwd72s]

Has anybody noticed that Bernie Madoff died recently?

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

Has anybody noticed that Bernie Madoff died recently?

Yes, that was on the news today. Amazing that everyone (almost everyone) turned a blind eye to what was going on there. The French fellow who ended up committing suicide - I used to work for that guy on Wall Street many, many, many years ago. Sad story. They actually recovered quite a bit in the "liquidation" process - I think near 80% - which cements the "story" by Madoff that he was just shuffling money from one party to another in an attempt to appease people and look good. This 80% of course, was only the original principle - they had to claw it back from people who had been paid dividends over the years. Complex stuff...

-Wayne

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Based upon historical precedent, if everyone else thinks the same thing, then isn't that one of the defining characteristics of a bubble?

-Wayne

But I think I’m in the minority of Bitcoin holders who think that way.
And, even assuming it turns out to be a bubble, there’s still potentially lots of money to be made.
Everything is a bubble. Stocks, real estate, etc. It’s all had periods of big declines, and big falls.
Arguably stocks are in a huge bubble right now. So many valuations make no sense. Same for real estate. These current prices (and interest rates) can’t be sustained, IMO.
And that seems to get amplified as time goes on. Everything seems “boom and bust” now.

[Skillet83]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Cash in crypto, or USD cash? It's my understanding that all of these cryptos are very difficult to convert back into dollars, and then (legally) have to be declared as a capital gain on the tax returns. On this year's return, there is a question as to whether you have invested in crypto over the previous period. That would probably be a big audit flag for the future, I would think?

As I understand it, the reason the NFTs were so popular is because they were paid for in crypto currencies that couldn't easily be converted to US dollars (also without generating a taxable event). It remains to be seen if a purchase in Bitcoin (of an NFT or any tangible object) would be a taxable event.

PayPal sat (and still does) in this grey area for a long time as it is not a bank, but acts like one. I can't recall what PayPal reports to the IRS - distributions (withdrawals?) either...

-Wayne

It is very easy to convert cash/fiat into crypto and to get right back out, takes just a minute. Works almost identical to my E-Trade account, no different. My account on coinbase is tied to my checking account, same as E-Trade. I can send that crypto to different places, do swaps, earn interest, stake and earn, but it always comes back to my CB account if I want to exit for fiat. Coinbase is my on-ramp, off--ramp.
Regarding taxes, I do not cheat on my taxes and I disclose all gains. There are many crypto services now that will generate a Form 8949. I paid $200.00, dumped my cvs reports from all exchanges I play on, generates the form, give to CPA. Capital gains are no different, either short term or long term. If you make money, your going to pay.

EDIT: I went back and read Wayne's comment and mine, this is why I say we are still in the 1st inning of this crypto deal. You have highly intelligent people that just are not informed outside of an article or headline. I asked a friend the other day if he held any BTC? He literally had no idea what I was talking about. Blew me away. I have developed muti-million dollar companies in multiple states, 7 figure real estate portfolio and will say this, the easiest money I have made is crypto by a long shot, next 4 years will be historic. All you here on media is bitcoin, but there is so much more. This is like being in on Apple or Microsoft early days.

Open an account on Coinbase, takes a couple days to get verified, drop a $100.00 then go play around and see what the fuss is. Very cool stuff.

[Skillet83]

How many years are we going to hear "bubble" or "Tulips"? We have blown through 60K. In 4 years there will be another halving in BTC, where the miners cut get's slashed in half. Oh never mind. I will bump this every once in a while. Have fun all.

[sammyg2]

Just bought into dogecoin.
Cost me my whole life savings, but I said WTF

[island911]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Cash in crypto, or USD cash? It's my understanding that all of these cryptos are very difficult to convert back into dollars, and then (legally) have to be declared as a capital gain on the tax returns. ...

Well that's just not true. You should be fair and note that you could lose it all and have no worries about gains.