Hussman on Market Bubbles

[pwd72s]

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/

"What defines a bubble is that investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting expectations for returns lower. That is, investors extrapolate past returns based on price behavior, even though those expectations are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows. The defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behavior and expected returns based on valuations."

A long read...but offered as food for thought. Interesting thoughts on bitcoin at the end of the piece...

"My largest concern is that people are actually forking over hard-earned savings in exchange for these tokens, which allows early “miners” to cash out. That’s essentially the defining feature of a Ponzi scheme. Like all speculative bubbles that rely on increases in price, rather than cash flows generated by the production of value-added goods and services, Bitcoin isn’t actually creating “wealth.” It’s only creating the opportunity for wealth transfer, primarily from those who will end up holding the bag."

[Crowbob]

I think bubbles are mostly due to the inherently human trait of herd mentality. No. More like flock mentality. A buncha bird-brains see other bird-brains taking off, going this way, then that way, up then down...and can't resist joining in.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/

"What defines a bubble is that investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting expectations for returns lower. That is, investors extrapolate past returns based on price behavior, even though those expectations are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows. The defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behavior and expected returns based on valuations."

A long read...but offered as food for thought. Interesting thoughts on bitcoin at the end of the piece...

"My largest concern is that people are actually forking over hard-earned savings in exchange for these tokens, which allows early “miners” to cash out. That’s essentially the defining feature of a Ponzi scheme. Like all speculative bubbles that rely on increases in price, rather than cash flows generated by the production of value-added goods and services, Bitcoin isn’t actually creating “wealth.” It’s only creating the opportunity for wealth transfer, primarily from those who will end up holding the bag."

As I have been saying, there is a perception the USA is a rich nation when in reality it is a BK nation.