Crazy housing market

[biosurfer1]

I know there are stories like this everywhere these days, and there have been some insane deals in my neighborhood, but this one takes the cake so far.

There are about 350 homes in my neighborhood. Gated community with a clubhouse, community pool, tennis courts, park for kids, etc. Overall very nice but there are nicer ones nearby so nothing standout.

We have a small lake in the middle and about 40-50 houses are directly on the lake and have commanded ~10-20% premium over the years.

One of the lake houses is going to sell soon and didn't actually hit the market. Current owners bought January 2019 for $615,000 and had talked about wanting to move to San Diego almost since they moved in (makes me wonder why they did?). They have been doing some minor work to the house in preparation and someone randomly stopped by asking if it was going to be for sale soon... a little back and forth and it's currently under contract at $1,000,000

It will be the first house to ever hit that 7 figure number in our neighborhood. Just blows my mind. ~62% value increase in less than 2.5 years. Bonkers!

[ramonesfreak]

your propert tax assessment will soon be bonkers

[look 171]

Originally Posted by ramonesfreak

your propert tax assessment will soon be bonkers

and some of the people like the school unions are pushing to eliminate prop 13.

Not crazy at all with low interest and uncertain market forecast. People are trying to shelter their money.

I sold the house up my street for 670k about 6-7 years ago. I put over 100 into into and double my overall investment (It had serious hillside foundation issues). It got exchanged hands twice within that time. Every time it bought and sold, the owner made 200k plus. Not its up for sale again for 1.3 mil.

OP, these things only happens in big crowded cities. Not sure its if good that its spilled over into Roseville? Home owners love it beczuse it raises their valve of their home but but buyers will have to look further into the sticks. Start buying em' toward Tahoe. Eventually they will be more zeros added to them.

[JavaBrewer]

We have seen this before. Nearing the top now and sales are starting to lag due to crazy bidding wars leaving the newer buyers without the funds to compete. Anything you buy now get ready to sit on for 5-8 years comfortably. The market always comes back, has been since homes were erected in CA, but you need to be able to weather the lean times too. With the current economy, administration, and crazy CA politics I might be proven wrong (about the eventual upswing). Buyer beware these days. Sellers are living large for now.

[gregpark]

Been happening for years in my town which is no big crowded city. An ugly POS split into two apartments and resembles a kleenex box just sold near my neighborhood for 1.2
A 1300 ft. 3 and 1 on a tiny lot around the corner from me just sold for 1.3
People are bailing from SF and everything seems cheap up here comparatively.

[Evans, Marv]

If they want to move to S.D., they might need all of their sale price. The average house is now $860K supposedly. We have friends building their home and saved enough to pay for the construction. With the price of wood and materials, they will have to take out a loan to finish the build. When Prop. 13 went into effect, my former wife & I had a smallish two bedroom home in a decent neighborhood and paid $867/yr. peoperty tax at the time. After Prop. 13, we paid$4xx/yr. Right now we pay $7K+/yr. which is sort of normal I guess. If Prop. 13 goes, all hell will break loose.

[look 171]

Originally Posted by Evans, Marv

If they want to move to S.D., they might need all of their sale price. The average house is now $860K supposedly. We have friends building their home and saved enough to pay for the construction. With the price of wood and materials, they will have to take out a loan to finish the build. When Prop. 13 went into effect, my former wife & I had a smallish two bedroom home in a decent neighborhood and paid $867/yr. peoperty tax at the time. After Prop. 13, we paid$4xx/yr. Right now we pay $7K+/yr. which is sort of normal I guess. If Prop. 13 goes, all hell will break loose.

That will spell death for out economy. Housing market will come to a dead stop. If these people have their head up their ass far enough to not remember the last glue that held the economy through its down turn was the housing market. Most homes only dropped a small percentage in older, established neighborhoods. The inland empire and the desert community got hit very hard. All hell will break loose is correct.

[biosurfer1]

When I moved into the neighborhood in 2016, houses were going for $500-650k and I remember specifically telling my wife that if things continued at a typical pace, our house might be worth $1 million by the time we retired in 20 years.

Just blows my mind that less than 5 years later houses are in the $850-$1 million range already. Didn't think even the craziest estimates would almost have us there so fast.

As for the current owners, the husband mentioned they found a place to rent in Cardiff for the time being (until they find a home to buy) for $5500/month. Never been to Cardiff and have no clue if thats a good price or not but I agree, no matter where they go now, prices there will likely be just as crazy!

[craigster59]

Prices are up all over. My R.E. buddy just got back from Idaho. He's been making connections to source homes there while he lists and sells the soon to be ex-California residents homes here....

[look 171]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

When I moved into the neighborhood in 2016, houses were going for $500-650k and I remember specifically telling my wife that if things continued at a typical pace, our house might be worth $1 million by the time we retired in 20 years.

Just blows my mind that less than 5 years later houses are in the $850-$1 million range already. Didn't think even the craziest estimates would almost have us there so fast.


As for the current owners, the husband mentioned they found a place to rent in Cardiff for the time being (until they find a home to buy) for $5500/month. Never been to Cardiff and have no clue if thats a good price or not but I agree, no matter where they go now, prices there will likely be just as crazy!

Cardiff is the small, quaint, coastal town north of the city of San Diego. I can see myself living there. Shorts and Tee shirt though out the year. One thing, its not exactly cheap there. I say 5k per month is not out of the question and I bet that's not ocean front neither.

I think CA real estate jumped 20% in the past year or two in our larger cities. I sure hope those who left the rat race of city to live in the suburbs around here know what they are getting themselves into and that they can never go back. I was yapping with my agent down in the City of Torrance. 25% of her buyers are looking for larger homes out in Palmdale or Landcaster (the high desert) due to working remotely. Can we really work remotely? Torrance have a bunch of engineering aerospace engineering firms and head quarters.

[look 171]

Originally Posted by craigster59

Prices are up all over. My R.E. buddy just got back from Idaho. He's been making connections to source homes there while he lists and sells the soon to be ex-California residents homes here....

Time to buy up some old homes up in Idaho Falls or Boise and wait for the next wave.

Where in ID is your friend retiring to? I talked to a couple others who are looking up there as well. My childhood friend Mike is thinking about the same thing.

Last time I drove through there a few winters ago, the first thing they looked at was my lic plate when we stopped to eat.

[Bill Douglas]

Property prices are going nuts around here too. The small surf town of Lyall Bay went up 30.3% in the last 12 months.

A friend is looking to buy. One place he looked at had a government valuation of 1.1m he thought it would sell for 1.6m so offered 1.65m. It sold for just short of two million. And it wasn't even a "great" place.

[Rick Lee]

I ran into a college buddy this past weekend I hadn't seen since 2004. Turns out he lives eight minutes from me. I went over to his house and fell in love with it. I looked it up on Zillow and it said $679k. I looked mine up and it said $679k. Hmmmm. I was thinking there is no point in selling for crazy money and then overpaying for the next place. But if our houses are really about the same, I could make a lateral move to that neighborhood and still have about the same size mortgage. Obviously, closing and moving costs would be additional. But I can live with that.

[look 171]

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

Property prices are going nuts around here too. The small surf town of Lyall Bay went up 22% in the last 12 months.

A friend is looking to buy. One place he looked at had a government valuation of 1.1m he thought it would sell for 1.6m so offered 1.65m. It sold for just short of two million. And it wasn't even a "great" place.

What's the reasoning for housing to shoot up down there? Lack of it or low interest rates?

[look 171]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I ran into a college buddy this past weekend I hadn't seen since 2004. Turns out he lives eight minutes from me. I went over to his house and fell in love with it. I looked it up on Zillow and it said $679k. I looked mine up and it said $679k. Hmmmm. I was thinking there is no point in selling for crazy money and then overpaying for the next place. But if our houses are really about the same, I could make a lateral move to that neighborhood and still have about the same size mortgage. Obviously, closing and moving costs would be additional. But I can live with that.

Property tax

[HardDrive]

Prices are nutty butters. Not complaining frankly....

[Tobra]

I was talking to my friend the other day. His house has better than tripled its value in 20 years. There are a bunch of two story places they threw up near me, literally a few feet from each other, packed together tight $450K. My buddy thinks they are going to quit building single family homes on decent size lots

[Tishabet]

We bought our current home in Spring 2014 and if Zillow is to be believed we are up 132% over those 7 years. Crazy indeed.

[RANDY P]

3 years in PHX, house has gone up conservatively 38%

If I believe Zillow, 43%

Still climbing, LOL

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by look 171

Property tax

No difference at all here. It's not like in CA where it's based on when you bought. Assessed value is assessed value.