Markets: Whats "your guy" saying.

cstreit · cstreit's Garage

Met with my financial advisor yesterday at Chase and they're revising 3-5 year guidance upward from 5.5% to 6-8% depending on your portfolio balance. Feels optimistic but for the last 10 years they've been consistently half a percent conservative for me.

Anyone else with some perspective. Whats "Your guy" telling you.

(Not you Tabby, your guidance is always "DOOOOM")

flatbutt · 06-23-2023, 09:48 AM

My guy is a gal who has done very well for me. She has me generally holding for now and we have dabbled conservatively for the last 6 / 8 years.

Scott Watkins · 06-23-2023, 10:04 AM

Not “my guy”, but if I knew when I was 20 what I know today, buy the S&P 500 every paycheck. As much as you can.

As always, interesting interview with Ron Baron this morning.

“Investor Ron Baron says the Dow will reach 900,000 over the next 50 years because of faster growth”

wilnj · 06-23-2023, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Watkins

Not “my guy”, but if I knew when I was 20 what I know today, buy the S&P 500 every paycheck. As much as you can.

As always, interesting interview with Ron Baron this morning.

“Investor Ron Baron says the Dow will reach 900,000 over the next 50 years because of faster growth”

If I knew at 20, what I know now, I would have turned over my portfolio to a fee based professional from the jump.

Since I’ve started with him, he has consistently beat the S&P by significantly more than what I pay him.

My last meeting with him was a few weeks ago and he was recommending a hold at the same positions we set a few months prior.

He will be reviewing his guidance next week and we’ll see.

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Chocaholic · 06-23-2023, 10:35 AM

Just curious (bit of a side-step)…what are you paying “your guy” and what exactly is he/she doing for you.

I’m in the process of turning our finances over to a pro (I hope) now that retirement is imminent. As a fiduciary his fee starts at 1% at $1M of assets managed and declines a bit from there. Seems like a lot of money considering a chunk in taxable securities, CD’s that he really can’t do anything with. Sure he can move IRA money around, but so can I. Thinking of jumping in only with holdings he can move to improve performance.

If too off track…happy to start another thread.

wilnj · 06-23-2023, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Just curious (bit of a side-step)…what are you paying “your guy” and what exactly is he/she doing for you.

I’m in the process of turning our finances over to a pro (I hope) now that retirement is imminent. As a fiduciary his fee starts at 1% at $1M of assets managed and declines a bit from there. Seems like a lot of money considering a chunk in taxable securities, CD’s that he really can’t do anything with. Sure he can move IRA money around, but so can I. Thinking of jumping in only with holdings he can move to improve performance.

If too off track…happy to start another thread.

I’m still 10 plus years from retirement. I’m at the same 1% on a sliding scale.

I will say that in my IRA from a previous employer he has done much better than on my 401k with my existing employer so i see evidence of what he can do.

This is due to having more options with the IRA. Additionally, he has his assistant manage my kids’ IRAs under the fee I’m paying.

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Chocaholic · 06-23-2023, 10:49 AM

So, is it reasonable to have him manage IRA and 401k money only? Or will he send me packing?

wilnj · 06-23-2023, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

So, is it reasonable to have him manage IRA and 401k money only? Or will he send me packing?

That’s all my guy does but that’s all I have for him. He keeps pressing me to invest more after tax but I don’t have the cashflow.

He’s very frank about the tax man inevitably coming to collect when the music at the Fed finally stops.

I appreciate this since I’d rather have a financial planner err on the conservative side as far as expectations rather than shrug his shoulders and tell me cest la vie if things don’t pan out.

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Chocaholic · 06-23-2023, 11:10 AM

Understood. Thanks. Apologies to the OP for the hi jack. Now...back to the topic.

cantdrv55 · 06-23-2023, 12:37 PM

Check out Empower/Personal Capital if you’re shopping for a fiduciary. They’re a mix of a personal financial planner and robo investing. They charge 0.89% from 1M-3M then drops to 0.79% beyond 3M.

Before I retired, I was in employer 401k target date fund. When I was nearing retirement, I felt I needed help with tax planning, SS, healthcare and having a sound withdrawal strategy so I started using the Personal Capital financial tools for free. It’s a fantastic tool. Check out the reviews on YouTube. Then wifey and I spent time talking to one of their fiduciaries and he did an analysis of our assets. It was comprehensive and made a lot of sense to us to sign up with them. They have us invested in ETFs and individual stocks. We are tracking the S&P plus are in dividend generating stocks. The dividend income is much more than what we used to contribute to our 401k annually! Anyway, the service more than pays for itself.

Scott Watkins · 06-23-2023, 12:47 PM

“Since I’ve started with him, he has consistently beat the S&P by significantly more than what I pay him.”

Outstanding!

Scott Watkins · 06-23-2023, 12:52 PM

In no way am I knocking FI’s, we’ve used 3 different ones over the years that helped get us to FIRE. I manage now with a sanity check meeting a few times a year with our guy.

Interesting since retiring the amount of financial and career coaching I’ve been doing.

Interesting video from Rob, that’s worth watching.

https://youtu.be/9Pnl-EjmzpA

cantdrv55 · 06-23-2023, 01:02 PM

Rob Berger. We watched his channel a lot just before we pulled the trigger on retirement. Great advice from him.

sc_rufctr · 06-23-2023, 01:12 PM

Not from my guy... My opinion only.

We are in for a rough ride. The next 10 years is going to be tough for a lot of people. Just make sure you're not one of them.

So "Bricks & Mortar" because people will always need a place to call home.

LWJ · 06-23-2023, 01:15 PM

Slightly on topic - I pay my guy a percentage of what he manages.

BUT, the assets that my advisor manages are less than 20% of my total. So, I get a much lower percentage for his take on everything. It works out.

wilnj · 06-23-2023, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cantdrv55

Before I retired, I was in employer 401k target date fund.

That’s what I was doing but during the heydays of the late 201X’s I realized that the target fund was woefully underperforming relative to the S&P. As it was explained to me, target funds have to operate per their proforma and cannot easily adapt to current market conditions.

I probably missed on out 10-15% growth over a few years before I realized what was happening.

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cantdrv55 · 06-23-2023, 02:24 PM

I chose a target date that was waay into the future so I was very agressive and risky. Paid off very well and allowed me to retire at 58.

wilnj · 06-23-2023, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cantdrv55

I chose a target date that was waay into the future so I was very agressive and risky. Paid off very well and allowed me to retire at 58.

Should have thought of that.

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cantdrv55 · 06-23-2023, 02:30 PM

I should’ve also invested in real estate. Missed the boat on that one.

stevej37 · 06-23-2023, 02:32 PM

I retired 10 years ago...Now, my portfolio is worth more than when I retired.
I worried about it back then....now I feel I'm home free.

(a good pension really helps)