Crypto..Greater Fool Theory or the Real Deal?
 

Crypto .... What does the future hold?

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Lot of real money is being made and lost....
It's a global currency that is essentially untaxable and untraceable.

I feel that it's an alternative to worthless paper currency and its hedging your bets on the future of finance. It's a counter culture to the corrupt banking industry, yet they pump and dump with no regulation (elon musk and doge coin).

With that said I'm full in on shiba. That is a hell of project and fanbase.

My mistake was not buying any in 2015. At that time Bitcoin was about $327 each!

- If you bought 10 of them and hung onto to them what would they be worth right now?
$61,649.80 USD x 10 = $616,498 :eek:

Anyways... There are a lot of true believers that are really excited and they use terms like "Trojan Horse".
If you have some cash laying around and you feel lucky then go for it but don't borrow money to buy in.

Meanwhile Tesla is now worth more than the next 10 car companies combined. How is that even possible?

Being really honest - This crazy world makes no sense to me.

I think that is the biggest issue/red flag. He made more off crypto by influencing than sales (like 700 million?). It should be considered insider trading. But as we know the crypto is not regulated. Pump and dumps are real.

If he pulled out his doge the coin would crash... Which once again he heavily influenced to the current price...

Greater fool for both crypto and Tesla. Lots of money made playing the "greater fool" game as long as you are not in the wrong place when the music stops.

hmmm should have crossed the border in 2016 and could have gotten 283k more for free without the risk of losing your initial investment.



I feel the USD in that category...

Do I want to know what happened in 2016? :(

Just making a connection to the free 450k x2 for crossing into the country illegally under the previous administration.

450k??? I should sneak into the US ;)

Just snag a kid on the way in like the migrants have been doing since the 1980's.

Many years ago, I thought, "I should buy $20 worth just because."
That certainly could have been nice, especially if I'd hung onto it.
Of course, there's no telling what I'd have done. I may have pulled it back out when that $20 turned into $100.

I first saw BTC when it first spiked up to a dollar before crashing. Everyone had a laugh at the dumb meme currency and moved on.

Yikes.

I mean I would have sold it when it got to $20, I could never have imagined it getting this high. I still can't, doesn't make a bit of sense.

Winter of 2019 I'm sitting at a semi-regular poker game and I bring up the subject of Bitcoin. I'm thinking of throwing $10K at it which - would buy 3 coins. The guy at the table who I would consider the easiest mark and not the sharpest tool in the shed, thinks it's a great idea. Based on his reaction and that fact that he thought it was a good idea, I promptly abandon the thought entirely.

Those coins would be worth about $200K today. Guess who the real idiot at that poker table was?

Hindsight is 20/20. Would you have been nonchalant if you'd put the $10k in and it turned into $1k or disappeared completely? (If so, promptly mail me $10k. I may or may not give it back or more or less. :D)

That's the thing, though, it's unregulated and has no real value, but it sounds exciting and the numbers keep going up and up so it attracts fools. Some of those idiots are going to make big time dollars and some will lose everything, but... I mean they're still fools.

Fools and/or gamblers.

I'm not a gambler. I'm pretty risk averse and prefer to minimize my chance of a loss.

There are plenty of gamblers that would be happy to give it a go hoping for the big payout.

There are also lots of folks that get into stocks, and respond emotionally when things go up/down. The stocks go up and down (because that's what they do). And when the stocks that they bought go down, they sell, sell, sell! because they "lost money." They didn't lose anything until they sold. Those same folks will often wait until the stocks have been going back up for a while and then buy back in at an even greater loss, rinse, repeat. That's why I understand that most folks in the market make a fraction of the market average.

No real value to you maybe, but to millions of other people it has. It certainly has value to governments who tax the profits you make from it.

All of the above.

This
Ride the wave, jump off before it crashes into the rocks.
There is money to be made.

FWIW, I noticed that FTX was advertising quite heavily during the World Series. The umpires even had the logo on their uniforms.

I think that if you were in early, you could stand to make some serious $$. From what I gather, it's sort of like a ponzi scheme. The rising value is partly based on the fact that there's a finite number of coins available, and as more & more are mined, the value of those remaining coins goes up due to continued demand. Once they're all mined, I would think that the value becomes more-or-less fixed. If you got in at the end of the party, you won't be making a killing. And if there's a big rush to unload at that point, you could be left with nothing.

To me, the one big unknown is what happens if "Mr. Nakamoto" decides to dump more coins into the mix? Will those who got in early and sold at the right time be sitting pretty, while all the rest get screwed?

These thoughts are based on my extremely limited understanding of how this all works, so I'm sorry if it sounds a bit clueless to those who actually understand crypto currency :confused:

Mining lol

Mining is a small fee paid to run a transaction across multiple terminals. Not actual mining for more coins.

Each coin has the finite limit of coins. Some coins add more coins each day to circulation (doge coin). Some coins burn coins to wallets that can't be accessed to create more value to people own then. some run on better programs than others. Some give coins to charity and some are straight up scams.

If I can't figure out which crypto is going to survive the inevitable culling of this herd, why wouldn't I just invest in coinbase (COIN)?

Wouldn't you expect the coin exchange to do well over time, regardless of which particular coin system ultimately ends up on top?

That's the thoery. The exchanges have significant investment in coins and charge per transaction to buy or sell.... as the coins become more mainstream and vendors start to list them for payments ie more utility. The crypto will take off. The problem is the fees. Hence the use of blockchain by eth. There's others out there, but eth is essentially the gold standard for now. But that will change.

That's the hedge that ARK.K is using, big money in Bitcoin & Ethereum but also in Coinbase.

The Crypto guys refer to "stable coins" which are the above 2. Others are "alt coins" and then there are "meme coins" like Shiba and Doge.

So crypto has a wide range of players from serious/managed to highly speculative. Maybe its the kids who made a killing on Blockbuster who are playing in the alts and memes, but some serious money is in stable coins.

But the real question is why they'll be used for a very long time?

Less transaction fees on purchases. crypto will be the the new credit card vendor. American Express is to bitcoin as ethereum is to visa.

Crypto may evolve into "real" money at some point. It has some clear advantages. But for now its a useless momentum play. Until you can buy whatever you want with it, its just monopoly money. And the more coin brands that pop up, the more useless it becomes. It amazes me the profits being made. But I will happily pass on this "investment".

In May 2021 I took $5K and tossed it into crypto. It is 5K I am OK with losing.

I have moved that 5K around a bit as I learned more.

That 5K is 8.5K now.

I think Arizona_928 did the same as I did and purchased a bunch of SHIB.

I purchased the moment it hit Coinbase, I have 25 Million SHIB, I paid $700 for it and it has more than doubled since I purchased.

I am going to sit on it and hope it is the next DOGE or BTC. Most likely not.

If it hits $0.01 a coin that is 250K. If it can go up to $0.10 a coin that is 2.5 Mil.

I have no plans to do anything with SHIB unless it approaches $0.01 then I might cash some out.

Never cash it all out. My buddy was mining BTC back in 2012, when it hit 7K a coin he sold it all off and paid all his debt off, including car loans. IIRC he owned about 20 coins, he cashed out 140K. That would be worth 1.3 Mil right now.

He kicks himself now. I meet him once a month for beers and we discussed this. He said never cash it all out, just take a little as it goes up, you never know.

Dimon says worthless..

If Bit becomes a threat the Treasury or the FEd will regulate the he11 out of it..they are not about to have competition to your USD...

Your USD stands to become worthless..and since everything you (globally) own is based in USD..well everything you own will crash in value.

The old way suggests that Bit does not have a tried and true intrinsic value. It is in the same category as any other Fiat currency..what is it backed by let alone you can't even hold it in your hand..it has an abstract value..

Since Fiat currencies are based upon trust that they have value..when the shyt hits the fan trust is out the window and it is the tried and true stuff that has 5000 years of being real money/having value that will hold sway..you can hold it in your hand, put it in your pocket it has weight..it is substantial..everybody in the world recognizes it as having value, value.value.

This is the key...but it could go on for awhile as it is. There also needs to be a more user friendly experience, IMO. Apps like Coinbase help, but this notion that some technical "glitch" or loss of a passkey could result in your holdings disappearing into the ether is going to dissuade a lot of people I would imagine. That said, I don't hold any, and am not that familiar with the mechanics, so maybe things have improved. Personally, I'm still not convinced it solves any real word problem. Blockchain tech is interesting, but what are we trying to replace and why? Maybe I'm just old and out of touch....

Blockchain is offering lower transaction fees than credit cards

I don't know that to be true. Especially long term.

Right now the blockchain proof requires a lot of computing power to achieve. That is rewarded with fractional amounts of the crypto going to the first to solve.

The fee to process transactions is being paid internally, with a slight devaluation of the currency due to a slight increase in the supply available. That may be difficult to value and the cost doesn't pass directly to the consumer. But it sure as hell ain't free.

I'm sure I am missing something, but what happens when BTC is capped and there are no new coins available to reward those that prove the blockchain? Why continue to work on solutions to the blockchain when there is no reward. Introducing... the transaction fee.

Tell me I'm missing something.

Many years ago when BTC first appeared on the scene my oldest son was a teen and living at home.

He approached me about building a mining rig.

I asked if you could just buy BTC as well and he said yes, it was worthless back then.

I was going to buy $5K worth back then, and my wife crapped all over the idea. She wanted me to explain it to her and I could not, and if I attempted to, it just did not make sense. I actually talked myself out of it trying to explain it.

I kick myself all the time for not just saying F-it!! and buying it anyway. It is upsetting how much I missed out on making off of it. Billions.

So I did it this year, I tossed 5K in spread it around a lot (i.e. $500 in 10 different crypto's) then started reading.

I decided to move it around a little (some regrets most were sound moves) and when SHIB came along I thought to myself, this may be the next DOGE and I better toss something at it.

It all does not make sense to me at all, like you I guess I am just old and do not understand it completely.

Except, I am not going to continue to sit around and read story after story of people who made insane money investing in it.

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The feds are already attacking crypto having the 10k in bank accounts directly correlates to crypto wallets. Throw in the capital gains tax in the infrastructure bill directly targeting crypto....

Yes that's why eth is on its way out. Many other alt coins that are promoting there own programs at a fraction of a % of cost.

One super interesting thing to me:

I work in finance, and Fed wire cutoff here on the West Coast is 2:30. After that we can't fund a loan, can't send a draw wire, etc. Also, an actual person at the bank is reviewing and releasing, so they aren't even quite instantaneous, and still cost a few bucks.

There is a newer system out there that is instant and 24 hour, and supported by the Fed, but the community banks we have relationships with are very slow to move and haven't adopted it yet. It does seem like most national banks are on board, so it's getting traction.

When Tesla was talking about using Bitcoin for a while, it came out in an earnings call that they were able to transfer a couple billion dollars instantly to move funds to the overseas projects, and there was plenty of liquidity in the system to do that conversion to local dollars almost immediately. That's a lot easier said then done if going through the conventional banking system and multiple intermediaries.

Interesting stuff, could be as big a change as flight or the Internet in some ways, but we're seeing super early stages of stuff right now, who knows what will win, and it has a lot more broad news and awareness than things like the early Internet.