when the shortage of workers stop, then what?
 

Will it ever go back to normal? When people are feeling the pinch in their bank accounts. I was pissed when my floor company told me that sanding and finishing a floor was 8.20 a square foot (a little over 1100' that over 9k:o). That's sanding and finishing an old floor. I bent over and took it. Last time we did one was only 4.25 a couple years ago. Everyone is gouging it seems. This guy has a tax ID number, and is a legit business. My floor man that I have used for over 15 years, runs a small business by himself still only charges 5 bucks per sq' but he has no company, pays his taxes. I can no longer 1099 him because I must make him an employee due to the lack of tax ID. Anyway, what happens when things go back to normal, people starts to go back to work and the competition will start all over again. Will pricing drop a bit? Are they still able to name their price because they are so use to doing it for the past couple years.

Had lunch with a friend and were talking the very same subject. He has properties out of state and he is frustrated because his management company hires anyone that will work. Paid 1300 bucks to have an water heater changed, that's labor only, takes two hours. This is in Uath and that labor should be much lower then CA due to less in insurance and the cost of running a business. Management company claims they can't get any plumber to perform the task and that was the only guy on town that will do it. What a crock of BS?

Wow, 8.20 a foot is robbery. I still charge 5. If there's furniture to move, 6.
I don't understand about the guy you've been using for 15 years. He's a licensed contractor? Even if he's a sole proprietor his SS number works as his tax ID right? If his license is currently valid I don't see why you have to pay him as an employee

Its been that way for a long time. Now they are cracking down on all 1099 cases. My friend pays their "contractors", physical therapist, 1099s and they were hit hard, fine and such, going through books. Sole proprietors must have a business lic, and file as such, not an individual even though many of them still do and are legal doing so on their end, but on our end as contractors, we have to make sure they have a tax id or a business that files as a corp. not individual. If so we must make them employees and pay and fooking pay.

I talk with a couple of people they are all complaining about floor installers over charging. Most are at over 7.50 those claims that have a "Company". All are too busy to even have a look. My guy were good enough to schedule me in because we have a history of using his service. He also has a flooring retail place but still so we are billed through the flooring retail instead of an individual.

This kind of crap is going to chase many of us who are legit out of business.

In Oct 2020 I bought a steel job, 950 tons with union labor for $2900/ton. Last month I bought another, 800 tons with non-union labor for $4900/ton.

Granted, the second job was significantly more challenging than the first but the premium should have only been about $500/ton which would also be the offset for union vs non-union.

I think the labor shortage is going to go on for quite some time. Covid really increased the rate of us boomers retiring. And more and more boomers are retiring every day. Not enough people to fill those labor vacancies.

Yes. This is a weird economic time.

FYI. I hired (yesterday) to have my floors refinished and sanded for $4.xx a foot. And, she is a pro.

Agreed, demographics are a big part of the issue. There was a decent % of the workforce that was "marginal", i.e. those thinking about retirement soon anyway, semi-retired and working out of boredom, etc. Covid took a lot of those people out, and they aren't coming back. In addition, the young, smart and mobile portion of the workforce realized they are now in the drivers seat and are demanding more comp, flex schedules, hybrid work, etc. All that is driving up pressure on wages. A lot of people also realized they don't want to pay big $$ for a tiny apt in NYC when they can work remote from Austin or SW Fla or elsewhere - there is a great migration of sorts going on in many parts of the country as people reassess their lives and what is most important to them - frankly, I think this is the one silver lining in all of this - people having the courage to make life changing moves they might otherwise not have.

This would dovetail nicely into an inflation (and wage inflation) discussion, but I'm not even going to go there because it'll probably get PARF'd up in 2 seconds.

I had a drywall guy do a wall and some holes in the ceiling from running wire. He made 4 trips from 5 minutes away and charged me $800. Total 5 hours of work. Drywallers make $160/hr.?
Came back to do my laundry room. 4 trips again. 20 minutes each. $500. $500/hr?

A plumber is changing a NG water tank and he says $95/hr and should take 2 hours.

When did drywall guys charge more than plumbers?

This as well as many people were basically left to their own devices. No income from a job and the subsidies were barely a bandaid.

I think they did what we always tell them to do, pull yourselves up by your bootstraps. They found ways to generate income where they were not reliant on a boss or business, they created their own job.

The other thing we tell them, make do with less. I think they listened there as well. They figured out they can get by on a single income vs dual and we now have one parent staying home.

Could be a case of "careful what you ask for, you just may get it"

I used to have a 15+ employee company.

In 2008 when the housing crash hit I had to downsize over the next 2 years to no one. Just me sitting in my office watching movies in 2010 waiting for someone to order something.

My wife helped me... the stories I can tell.... it was very invigorating for our sex life....

Then my older son was old enough to help and he jumped in to carry me through 2012.

I decided then I would NEVER be a larger company.

In 2015 I saw a surge in business (I call that the light at the end of the tunnel) then BOOM!! everything exploded in 2017 , I could not keep up. I was not going to hire, I was done with employees.

I hired on a receptionist (my niece) and a helper for my son who is in charge of all residential work.

I do all the construction work.

I purchased all GPS and robotic equipment. We do more work now than when I had 10 employees.

I have 3 employees.

I can actually cut back one employee now (field helper for my sons crew) and turn even more profit, with this tech, we really do not need him, we keep him but hope he will move on.

Hey 911 Rod let me know if you are building a house and I will bid on the drywall, LOL. I am OK with $140 hr.

The shortage of workers has been around for a while out here, prob 8 years anyways, right when I started building, I think many of the older people in the trades retired, still some younger people at it but most do not want to work too hard. It didn't take long for me to give up trying to get quotes. Pretty sure it is going to get harder to find people to work in the trades, all want to play video games for a living.

My heat pump went out. Called the local HVAC business (about 3-4 miles away. They were not even answering the phone. Leave a message. They called me back at the end of the day. Could get me in a little over a week from now. I was pretty surprised it was not the same or next day. I guess everyone has more work than people.

Where do/did these people go? I had my Duramax in for service turbo replacement and a couple of wear items ahead of time. I use this shop often. They had my truck for over a month. I got talking to the owner and was told that 3 our of his 6 mechanics quit. One moved to another state but he had no idea about the others. He tells me they are paid about 85-90k a year working there.

I want to stay small and also looking to retire in a few more years. 55 now, but still having a lot of fun working. In a city this size, How can we have a shortage of workforce? They can't all be sitting on their porch smoking pot? Restaurants are hurting because of the lack of waiting staff. 18 bucks an hour maybe more, plus tips get them over 25-30 bucks an hour. Where are these folks going to earn that kind of money with little skills? How are they making ends meet if they aren't working, both the skill and the none skill?

I was at McDonalds this morning waiting for a cup of coffee before my bike ride. The manager informs me that no one is at the register, so I have to buy at the electronic ordering device. They were swamped with one at the drive thru and her packing the foods for the drivethru and two in the kitchen. On my way out, (without coffee) I saw a sign at the door "help wanted, 19 bucks an hour". WTF, 20 bucks to take orders at Micky Dees and no one wants to do it?

If you do a search, there are more job openings than there are unemployed people. I don't see how the labor shortage gets fixed.
My son got a job at a factory nearby two months ago. The plant is mandating overtime. Sometimes it 4 hours after, sometimes it's 4 hours before your shift. Why? At a plant meeting they explained that the plant is operating at slightly less than 50% of what would be considered "fully staffed". Wages are decent starting at $18 but benefits are just okay. Rather than give incentives for being able to exceed quota, they'll raise quota if you exceed quota. Gee, I wonder why they can't get more parts out with the current workforce???

This baffles me too... They want the corner office with a window and 100K salary. Never mind that they have nothing to contribute in the way of skills or experience.

We have a nationwide staff shortage in my organization. Our own office, while understaffed, is better staffed than many around the country. Just found out yesterday that we have been tasked with picking up some of the work from the other offices on top of our own workload. We've already been doing this to an extent and they're adding more.

Employees have the upper hand these days. Employers have to tread lightly or people will just quit and find work else where. We do so many feel good activities, give awards for everything, form social groups just to retain people. It's crazy.

I heard that the lower birth rate has something to do with it. There is actually a shortage of 18-22 year olds to work.

After reading everyone's comments, I have come to the realization that wages in the US are much higher than Canada. Much higher.

Average Studio Apt. is $2000 per month in L.A.
Average health care policy $500 per month.
21% tax on $20 per hr @ 160 hrs per month = $672
$28 left for gas & food

Well......

Are they going to open borders?

Many immigrants willing to work.

It has been done like this since the foundation of our country.

And yes I get it. You can't have uncontrolled immigration.

But who is going to get the job done? If there are no available workers willing to work

Talk to Greg who is currently f'ng transportation at the borders looking for undocumented immigrants who he is afraid will be stealing all the jobs that apparently no one wants and hurting an already injured supply chain which only causes more pain for small local businesses.

And that shouldn't parf this up. If it does I apologize, let me now and I'll delete my post.

Who the fook is going to hire an illegal? The IRS will get your ass for that and are small business willing to carry the additional tax from the earnings if they pay them under the table?

I talk to a number of college students, they can't seem to find part time work and yet, there are shortages? Maybe employers only want to hire stable, older workers knowing they must come show up to work due to having family to support?

"Close the boarders!"

"Why's my order taking so long?"

Corporate America will have to get off its ass and pay a living wage to the workers who have carried them to record profits on their backs, all the while not being able to afford a ****ty apartment, and a used Chevy Cruze.

Who?

Everyone.

You have two basic types of things going on.

Trade / cash businesses. All you need is one person who can open a bank account to cash checks or deposit cash. So a bunch of construction, landscaping, restaurants, cleaning services, roofing, etc...

Then you have the large companies that comply with Fed regs on vetting employees for citizenship status. Problem there, there is a large market in fake documentation that allows these companies to comply with Fed regs and still look the other way or at least not check any deeper than they are required to do. Those undocumented with fake papers do have SS and Medicare withheld that they never claim, as in they don't file taxes, they just eat it. I suspect the Fed doesn't look at them as hard as they should either because they are good for up to $15 Billion a year in SS contributions that the fund never has to pay back.

As far as college students. I can see they would have a harder time getting some of those lower end jobs. Employer has to know going in that their time with the job is limited to how long it takes them to find a better job that aligns with their degree. Kinda like how some companies don't like hiring woman because there is a high probability at some point they'll be having kids.

Pretty much! Problem is, in a "global economy" where we have this wonderful free trade thing, they'll just move the manufacturing to a country with a lower labor cost.

The INCREDIBLY stupid thing about that is, my youngest is 17. She graduates in May. She can't get a job as many places because she's not 18. She doesn't turn 18 until July. Stupid... stupid... stupid.

It is not a shortage of workers. It is a shortage of people interested in working.

When there are more jobs than people unemployed, it's a worker shortage. People should be able to retire at some point and the younger generation fill in the gaps. But as someone mentioned earlier people aren't procreating the way they once did.

Correct. Boomers are retiring (that accelerated big time w/ Covid) and the younger working age population has flatlined if not decreased the past few years, reversing a strong trend that lasted decades. For sure there are some that just don't want to work, but demographics are playing a large role here as well.

Depends on how you define, "unemployed"


Nothing I have seen makes me doubt my initial assessment at all.

I'm not sure it matters how the word unemployed is defined. There are more jobs than there are people ready, willing, and able to fill those jobs. The job market is so good that a person can start a job, decide they don't like that job, quit that job, and have another job the next day. Employers need to understand the reality that exists now and adjust accordingly.

As I mentioned, it's crazy that the plant my son works at will punish you for exceeding quota by increasing quota if you exceed it. What they should do is incentivize beating quota by offering a bonus if you exceed quota for a certain number of days, weeks... whatever. Find ways to make employees want to be more efficient and more importantly more happy with their work and you'll get more workers. It's really not a difficult thing to figure out.

This makes too much sense. Just let the market figure itself out. No need to be concerned. Employers will do what they have to to stay in business.

The corporate view on that, if workers are consistently exceeding quota, the quota was set too low.

Stop giving people other people's money and they will want to go to work. As noted by others, there is no shortage or work and no shortage of people not choosing to work. Government policy is what separate the two. It is also what keeps wages low by bringing in waves of foreigners that will work for less (or sending work overseas).

Some people chose not to work because, they don't have to, they are already financially secure.

Re: McDonalds, I've not been to any and witnessed anyone standing around. Everyone there was continuously moving and moving quite briskly. Also, not many obese people working there for long.

Anecdotally, we had to drive to St. Paul a couple of times this week and Bruegger's Bagels is a treat for us. Stopped at the same store twice mid-morning and the same and only guy behind the counter was busting his butt to keep up each time. Truly, hauling ass and moving with nearly zero wasted motion. Of note is that he was also very courteous...and very much appeared and spoke to be first gen in MN. If he was getting paid $40/hour, (certainly not the situation) he was earning all of it.

Believe me, I understand that viewpoint. But some can easily make quota while others struggle. My son said he works hard and gets to near his quota about an hour and a half before his shift ends. He then eases up and finishes the shift at quota. He could easily do more, but he doesn't because the reward is increasing the quota. Several times he has been pulled from his line to go help someone that got behind on their line. What does that teach the person who got behind? Someone will be sent in to bail them out.

Reward the good workers. That's how it should be. But I'm not a plant manager, or shift supervisor or line leader so what do I know?

That's because like every other fast food place, they're severely understaffed. I worked at Wendy's when I was in trade school. It isn't rocket science and when fully staffed, it's not hard work. Even when under staffed, I've done much more difficult things and under far more stressful conditions. The worst times were lunch and dinner. The rest of the day was pretty much a snoozefest. "Go mop the floors" or "Go rotate the items in the cooler"