Inverted yield curve

[pwd72s]

Investor econ 101

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oo0SPqnyXY&ab_channel=HeresyFinancial

[red 928]

Below the vid:

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True
What he is saying is mostly correct but is not news
and the details he uses to support his argument are questionable.
If he knew something that everyone else didn't, he'd be making
a fortune investing instead of hawking snake oil
his intent is to separate people from their money.


I'm scheduled on a conference call/presentation
next week and the guest speaker is Ben Bernanke.
That should be interesting, at one time I believed
he was a contrary indicator. Whatever he said,
I believed the opposite.

We'll see if that has changed since he
got out of politics

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Bernanke was defensive, he rationalized and made
excuses for his moves and the actions of Yellen since.
He sounded like he was giving a college lecture for
which he was ill-prepared.

He demonstrated his belief, shared with most economists,
that the economy should be manipulated and controlled
by the educated elite for the benefit of the peons.
He got a couple jabs in at Greenspan, a man who bernanke
isn't qualified to speak of.

I was pleasantly surprised by the second speaker,
Mr. Marc Seidner from PIMCO.
He spoke facts instead of gibberish, talked of real world
instead of word salad
Very impressive individual
Of course, he should be taken with
a grain of salt as he only has an undergraduate degree
in economics as opposed to Bernanke's PHD.

Perfect example of:
if you can't do, teach
if you can't teach, preach
if you can't preach, go into the public sector

[pwd72s]

Bernanke...often derisively called "Big Ben"...for good reason.

[Sooner or later]

Greenspan had his share of warts.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Greenspan had his share of warts.

He will be distressed to hear you say that..

[MRM]

The inverted yield curve doesn’t always predict a recession - it’s inverted a couple of times in the last few years - but every recession in the modern era has been preceded by an inverse yield curve.

It’s going to be hard, if not impossible for the Fed to raise rates without triggering a recession. I don’t think the Fed has ever achieved a “soft landing” ever before. The Fed has to keep rates higher than inflation for a bit after inflation recedes in order for it to stick. So there has to be a time when rates are too high. They’d have to guess perfectly to get out of it without triggering a recession.

But on the other hand, the moment inflation looks like it’s been tamed and rates are still climbing, that’s the time to load up on bonds and kiss the stock market goodby. I still remember being a law clerk with no money walking by a brokerage office with the ticker flashing interest rates in the window. The 30 year Treasury Bond was 9% and falling. I knew I was unlikely to see a deal like that again.

[RobFrost]

The fixing of inflation will depend to a large degree on societal and attitudinal factors, in particular, the willingness of the national workforce to accept a fall in REAL wages. If they suck up the wage fall quicksmart, everything will get back to normal promptly. If there's a prolonged battle between employers and workers over who is going to eat the losses, with workers striking and taking industrial action to preserve their real wages, everyone will be in for a prolonged period of inflation and economic strife.

We're all poorer because of covid, the war in Ukraine, and because of developing countries taking more of the spoils for themselves instead of being exploited quite so badly, and there will be no chance whatsoever of that not leading to reduced REAL income.

Sent from my SM-G988B using Tapatalk

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I strongly disapprove of government intervention
of any kind in the economy, it almost always results
in perversion of the laws of supply and demand.

I could deal with the fed's manipulation to a point,
as long as it was subtle and minimized and used only
to smooth over the rough spots and not to CONTROL the ecomomy.
although the best net result of their actions we could hope for results
in more frequent instability to a lesser extreme.

unfortunately, it is no longer politically neutral and more often
than not, makes the wrong moves at the wrong time.