What is China really doing with Covid?

[jyl]

More thoughts.

China has not done the ground work to abandon zero-Covid. While 87% of the population is supposedly vaccinated, that is with domestic Chinese vaccines which are much less efficacious than the vaccines used in the West (even though China’s Fosun Pharma has a license for the Pfizer mRNA vaccine, the Chinese govt has never approved it). The vaccination rate is lower among the older popln; only 50% of over-80s are vaccinated, only 20% have one booster shot. China also has not secured a supply of antivirals (Paxlovid is the only one that remains effective against current variants).

Thus, while Xi should abandon zero-Covid, doing so "right now" will probably result in an enormous epidemic of Covid sweeping the country. Tens or hundreds of millions of cases, overflowing hospitals, dying in homes, makeshift morgues, people isolating out of fear, then the wave of long Covid disability, bankrupt local governments, etc.

Basically Xi will exchange the current chaos and disquiet for another, much larger and wholly uncontrollable, that will make his handling of Covid look multiples worse. I’m not even sure it will help the economy, a raging epidemic being not conducive to consumer spending.

I think the most logical thing for Xi to do is to compel a nationwide campaign of re-vaccination when he has the mRNA vaccines (either domestic or imported) plus nasal boosters (China is well ahead of the US in developing these) while setting up a nationwide network of Covid surge capacity, and then transition from zero-Covid to living-with-Covid, with stringent masking and ventilation rules (living-with-Covid China style is going to look very different than in the US).

If I'm right, an aggressive vaccination campaign will be a sign that zero-Covid is finally going to be dropped.

As divining the practical application of Xi Thought has been a losing game for some time, I think I’ll just remain zero-weight China for now.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by jyl

Thus, while Xi should abandon zero-Covid, doing so "right now" will probably result in an enormous epidemic of Covid sweeping the country. Tens or hundreds of millions of cases, overflowing hospitals, dying in homes, makeshift morgues, people isolating out of fear, then the wave of long Covid disability, bankrupt local governments, etc.

Why would that be the result?
There are many countries, comprising millions and millions of people, that have almost no vaccination (less than 5% of the population), and none of that is happening.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Why would that be the result?
There are many countries, comprising millions and millions of people, that have almost no vaccination (less than 5% of the population), and none of that is happening.

Because in those countries, almost everyone has contracted Covid at least once over the past two years, thus have a degree of acquired immunity, and while acquired immunity appears to fade over time and with new variants, those populations are still overall fairly protected (caveat that a new variant could change things).

Think back to when Covid was first sweeping through those countries and their populations were "naive" to the virus as well as unvaccinated. Look back at news from Brazil and India in their 2020 and 2021 surges - mass graves, overwhelmed hospitals, about 0.6MM "official" deaths in Brazil, 0.5MM in India, both likely grossly undercounted (just like in China, these governments had every reason to lie and under-count - estimates is that India's official numbers are 8X too low).

It wouldn't be that bad in China, because the population has some protection via vaccination, and the healthcare resources are much better. But even if the death rate is one-quarter of the estimated death rate India (so instead of 0.30% of population, say only 0.07%), that would be a million deaths in China.

China has supposedly had only 5,300 Covid deaths - surely a lie, China is even better at undercounting that India, but one that is very important to Xi. Adding a million to that isn't going to make Xi look good. Okay, maybe Xi is immune from looking bad, but his underlings aren't.

[ADDvanced]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

Our local Asians also tend to wear masks. Maybe it's a cultural thing?

What's really dumb and sad at the same time: Someone alone in a car wearing a mask.

Keeps windows from fogging up. I do it when the car is cold. Your comment reeks of compensation, bud.

[911boost]

So you were wearing a flimsy mask in your car precovid to keep your windows from fogging up?

Ummmmm yeah….

[ADDvanced]

No, but now that I have one...

Have you tried not worrying about other people, bro? Jesus.

Was wearing a mask when changing a battery in an auto parts parking lot, because I forgot to take it off.

Some country bumpkins in a POS rusted truck didn't say anything til they backed out of the parking spot, put it in drive, then called me a "f*ggot" and drove off. You want to be like those guys? Because that's who I'm associating you with.

[911boost]

Project much?

I could care less what you do, I just think it’s hilarious that you say you wear one to keep your windows from fogging up.

If you want to drive around in your car with it on that’s your choice. See what I did there? Your choice, don’t give others crap because they choose not to wear one.

Karen

[ADDvanced]

If you could care less, that means you care a bit. Not that I expect someone with your opinion to use common phrases correctly.

[Rick Lee]

People wearing masks outdoors in public only upset me because they likely vote and breed. I've seen joggers wearing masks on trails. And I've had plenty of appointments where the other person wore a mask until I gained their trust. Then they took it off. They vote and breed.

[911boost]

Very true Mr Lee

[Tobra]

No different than here, it is all about control of the plebes

The CCP vaxx is really not any worse than the ones they used here.


None of them are effective in preventing infection, none of them are durable, and none prevent the spread of the disease. That is why they changed the definition, so it would fit what they are currently pushing.

The powers that be have been lying about this from the jump, here and in Pandaland.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Tobra

No different than here, it is all about control of the plebes

The CCP vaxx is really not any worse than the ones they used here.


None of them are effective in preventing infection, none of them are durable, and none prevent the spread of the disease. That is why they changed the definition, so it would fit what they are currently pushing.

The powers that be have been lying about this from the jump, here and in Pandaland.

The very limited clinical data released on SinoVac, Cansino, etc vaccines was distinctly unimpressive, and then they stopped releasing data. Countries that started buying Chinese vaccines have switched to buying other ones. Just as important, China does not appear to have been keeping up the boosters, so most Chinese who are vaccinated got their initial doses over a year ago, and those vaccines' protection likely fades just like other vaccines.

The Chinese popln is going to be pretty fertile ground for Covid, if they hastily abandon zero-Covid and "let 'er rip". If China has a death rate not far off the US, 1MM deaths in 300MM implies 4-5MM of 1.4BN (coincidentally, about what India is belived to have actually suffered with about 1.4BN popln). Maybe Xi can hold it down to 1MM, but doing so will basically mean reverting to zero-Covid type lockdowns (in addition to massive lying)- except now he wouldn't be able to call it "zero" Covid any more.

Why is this interesting to me? If China drops zero-Covid, Chinese stocks will absolutely rip (only my view, not investment advice, blah blah), and it will be important to know if its a short rip that you need to jump on then jump off in a couple months. My view is that if China doesn't do the preparation I mentioned, before dropping zero-Covid, then you'd want to leave your seat belt unfastened.

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by ADDvanced

Keeps windows from fogging up. I do it when the car is cold. Your comment reeks of compensation, bud.

What? Did you forget to use green font?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Momentum is building. Xi Antoinette has more to worry about than invading Taiwan.

Huge COVID protests erupt in China's Xinjiang after deadly fire

Nov 26 (Reuters) - Rare protests broke out in China’s far western Xinjiang region, with crowds shouting at hazmat-suited guards after a deadly fire triggered anger over their prolonged COVID-19 lockdown as nationwide infections set another record.

Crowds chanted "End the lockdown!", pumping their fists in the air as they walked down a street, according to videos circulated on Chinese social media on Friday night. Reuters verified the footage was published from the Xinjiang capital Urumqi.

Videos showed people in a plaza singing China's national anthem with its lyric, "Rise up, those who refuse to be slaves!" while others shouted that they wanted to be released from lockdowns.

China has put the vast Xinjiang region under some of the country's longest lockdowns, with many of Urumqi's 4 million residents barred from leaving their homes for as long as 100 days. The city reported about 100 new cases each of the past two days.

Xinjiang is home to 10 million Uyghurs. Rights groups and Western governments have long accused Beijing of abuses against the mainly Muslim ethnic minority, including forced labour in internment camps. China strongly rejects such claims.

The Urumqi protests followed a fire in a high-rise building there that killed 10 on Thursday night.

Authorities have said the building's residents had been able to go downstairs, but videos of emergency crews' efforts, shared on Chinese social media, led many internet users to surmise that residents could not escape in time because the building was partially locked down.

Urumqi officials abruptly held a news conference in the early hours of Saturday, denying that COVID measures had hampered escape and rescue but saying they would investigate further. One said residents could have escaped faster if they had better understood fire safety.

'BLAME THE VICTIM'

Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, said such a "blame-the-victim" attitude would make people angrier. "Public trust will just sink lower," he told Reuters.

Users on China's Weibo platform described the incident as a tragedy that sprang out of China's insistence on sticking to its zero-COVID policy and something that could happen to anyone. Some lamented its similarities to the deadly September crash of a COVID quarantine bus.

"Is there not something we can reflect on to make some changes," said an essay that went viral on WeChat on Friday, questioning the official narrative on the Urumqi apartment fire.

China defends President Xi Jinping's signature zero-COVID policy as life-saving and necessary to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system. Officials have vowed to continue with it despite the growing public pushback and its mounting toll on the world's second-biggest economy.

While the country recently tweaked its measures, shortening quarantines and taking other targeted steps, this coupled with rising cases has caused widespread confusion and uncertainty in big cities, including Beijing, where many residents are locked down at home.

China recorded 34,909 daily local cases, low by global standards but the third record in a row, with infections spreading numerous cities, prompting widespread lockdowns and other curbs on movement and business.

Shanghai, China's most populous city and financial hub, tightened testing requirements on Saturday for entering cultural venues such as museums and libraries, requiring people to present a negative COVID test taken within 48 hours, down from 72 hours earlier.

Beijing's Chaoyang Park, popular with runners and picnickers, shut again after having briefly reopened.

Reporting by Yew Lun Tian; Editing by William Mallard

[Seahawk]

Interesting thread. Some of the perspectives here are excellent.

I’d like to keep it in OT so let’s play nice.

Best and thanks.

[Jeff Hail]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

Our local Asians also tend to wear masks. Maybe it's a cultural thing?

What's really dumb and sad at the same time: Someone alone in a car wearing a mask.

The only thing to fear is fear itself.

[gduke2010]

They’re doing it to roil the markets and economies of the world. It will hurt the US and the West substantially more….. a drag on China’s economy and loss of market share, but, shortages and inflation to the rest of the world that depends on they’re cheap manufacturing and supply chains.

Even though much harm will come to citizens, which X Ping could care less about. It’s a power struggle with our Country. Last year and year before China experienced devistating floods and opened flood gates unannounced without regard to who lived down stream.

There is another motive for these lock downs and not saving Chinese from Covid.

[gduke2010]

It’s funny how during the original Covid pandemic, lock downs lowered reported numbers so low, many countries modeled their policies similar to China’s. China was obviously, lying then and now, other countries are try to bring back mandates.

The lock downs are backfiring on China. We should thank them. An example is a he relief in oil prices.

[p911dad]

Crazy thing is with all this going on we got an offer today from some travel site today (I think it was Travelzoo, maybe) for a trip to Japan and China. With all this going on, how can any company offer trips there? We visited 3 years ago for 3 weeks, had a nice time, nice scenery, etc. Ever again to China? No. Japan, sure.

[jyl]

More and more reports and videos of anti-lockdown protests, demonstrations, and quasi-riots in China over last few days. Not just in Xinjiang or a Foxconn compound; in Shanghai and other cities too. So far security forces not doing much; speculation they were taken by surprise and waiting for orders. Interesting that Chinese censors are not managing to suppress this. I imagine that what gets out to the West is only a small part of what is circulating on social media in China.

For those not following China news, the scale and intensity of Xi’s Covid lockdowns is dimensions beyond anything ever done in the West. Our previous “please wear a mask” efforts are nothing like what Chinese have been going through.