A chat conversation I had with a Tesla fanboy today...

[Alan A]

Originally Posted by Evans, Marv

It's pretty obvious the future is tending in the direction of EV's.

Quoted for posterity. I needed a good laugh.

[sc_rufctr]

[jyl]

Laying off 10%, abandoning lower-priced new model, promising a robotaxi by August, falling margins and missing sales numbers after cutting prices - yeah everything is just great at TSLA.

[red 928]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

it seems odd that All of Europe, China, New Zealand, Korea and Canada can all move to e- vehicles easily and in the U.S. it's an Us against Them thing. Media, hyper-capitalism and a total lack of critical thinking isn't such a great mix. Who knew.

And what do "All of Europe, China, New Zealand, Korea and Canada"
have in common?
Sheeples who love it when the government
tells them what to do, say, and think.

But then again, some people are simply not capable
of fending for themselves.

[stealthn]

I would love a cheap Taycan Cross Turismo, as my third vehicle.

I think the experiment is over and the people have spoken, all the early adopters, techies, and tree huggers have their EV’s and the subsidy’s are dropping off, and people don’t want to spend money on an appliance.

And I think Musk is an idiot, true he’s done some good, but it’s outweighed by his doucebaggery. Don’t even get me started on 11 kids….

[Shaun @ Tru6]

A cheap Taycan is the most expensive Taycan. A customer bought one new from the dealer. It was in the shop constantly. Dealership had to buy it back from him.

[Sooner or later]

Total sales are still growing year on year, month on month. The rate of growth is definitely slower. Every manufacturer and their dog has an ev offering. That competition makes it difficult for each manufacturer to have the growth they expected.

HEV Sales
In March 2024, 122,332 HEVs (25,064 cars and 97,268 LTs) were sold in the United States, up 29.7% from the sales in March 2023.

Toyota accounted for a 50.0% share of total HEV sales this month.

Plug-In Vehicle Sales
A total of 135,035 plug-in vehicles (101,720 BEVs and 33,315 PHEVs) were sold during March 2024 in the United States, up 19.0% from the sales in March 2023. PEVs captured 9.39% of total LDV sales this month.

Cumulatively, 352,390 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2024. In total, 5,070,090 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold since 2010.


https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/13/us-ev-sales-strong-increases-year-over-year-every-month-of-the-year/

[Rick Lee]

I go to Europe a lot, always have a rental car when there, have tons of friends in Germany and Austria and, though their fuel prices are generally double ours, I don't think I've ever heard anyone complain about them. They get so much more for their taxes there than we get here. Their roads, rails, bridges, airports are outstanding. People know those taxes go to support that stuff and so they're fine with them. I don't know how the taxes on EVs work in Europe, but I can imagine, if they're getting a free ride there, it will come to an end as more people buy them.

[G50]

Some random thoughts on the original post:

Tesla has been and remains hugely successful. The Model Y, which didn’t exist a few years ago, is the best retail selling car in America. It sells more than Camrys, Accords, any other SUV, etc. (The only vehicle that outsells it is the F150 pickup truck). Simply amazing. (That’s retail sales, but even including fleet sales it’s still top 5).

A slowdown in growth, at some time, was predictable and natural, as more competitors offer similar products. Tesla was the first mover and a monopoly at one point, but that wasn’t going to last. (It has lasted much longer than I thought, though).

The cars are great, depending on your use and needs. My wife is on her second model 3. Her normal driving is 15-20 miles a day on commuting, errands etc. For that, electric is very good. Smooth, quiet, dead quiet at stoplights. Mine have been dead reliable, no maintenance at all. We charge at home, for a long time we just used the 110 outlet and it was fine for us. We also used the dryer 220, which was more than enough (22 miles per hour charging). I recently ran a dedicated 220 line with a 60 amp breaker and now it charges at 32 miles per hour.

We haven’t used a public charger in years (but in places like so cal you’re pretty much never more than 10 miles from one).

If you live in a place where you can’t charge, like an apartment, hmm, not sure I’d buy one. Even though they now charge at Supercharging stations incredibly fast (I think up to something like 600 miles per hour, so even 10 minutes gets you a lot of range).

I think the “environmental” benefit of electrics is highly over rated, as the vast majority of people do not factor the environmental impact of the mining and other production involved with the batteries, or the creation of the electricity. I think environmentally, modern gas engines emit pretty much no harmful emissions, or, at least if a true analysis of gas v electric was done, the difference would be smaller than most think.

Electrics are expensive now, but long term I think electrics have an advantage over ICE cars as far as production costs. They are way simpler, way fewer parts, and should be cheaper to produce than an equivalent ICE car. They are basically big golf carts.

If it weren’t for govt intervention, I think a different tech would have evolved. Maybe hydrogen, or hybrids. But govts are forcing electrics, so at least for the foreseeable future, electrics are what it will be.

I don’t agree with the thesis of the OP that there is any “downfall” of Tesla or musk. Both have done amazing things, and both are fine and will continue to be. Elon’s free speech stance has made him some powerful enemies, who are able to control the narrative for most people, but he’ll be fine.

The CyberTruck is an awful, awful vehicle. A huge mistake and missed opportunity.

I wouldn’t have bought either of my Teslas without the govt rebates. My 2023 Model Y was a net cost of around $28k, plus tax and license. For our use, a bargain to me.

I think electrics are fine, but they aren’t for everyone, or every use.

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by G50

I wouldn’t have bought either of my Teslas without the govt rebates.

There you go. That's the heart of the matter right there. If it's not worth it to buy with only your own money, why is it worth it to use my money too?

[G50]

Something like 40% of all new vehicle registrations in San Diego County last year were Teslas. Amazing.

The stock always has been over valued, Elon has said that himself many times.

[G50]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

There you go. That's the heart of the matter right there. If it's not worth it to buy with only your own money, why is it worth it to use my money too?

Why not?

Do you not claim all the credits and deductions that you are entitled to on your tax return, to reduce the (still substantial) amount the govt takes out of your earnings?

[creaturecat]

Teslas are a dime a dozen here.
folks converting to E V's at a rapid pace. ....... Vancouver.
the folks in the fly over provinces? living 20 years in the past ...... not much for EV's there.

[G50]

But I actually agree with you. I don’t think the govt should be giving such massive subsidies to push electrics. It hasn’t been well though out enough. Electrics are the knee jerk, simplistic response to “supposedly” polluting modern ICE cars.

[1990C4S]

Originally Posted by Zeke

I agree. Stop and go all day long. Of course I remember when UPS just let the truck run while they trotted packages to the door. I wonder how long starter motors last.

They are building electric delivery trucks at the old CAMI plant using GM batteries in the battery packs. Production is just ramping up.

BrightDrop Zevo600. DHL is using them in my area.

[ZAMIRZ]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

A cheap Taycan is the most expensive Taycan. A customer bought one new from the dealer. It was in the shop constantly. Dealership had to buy it back from him.

This is a valuable point that not a lot of people talk about.

The legacy auto manufacturers EVs aren't particularly good cars.

The legacy auto manufacturer product development process is as an integrator of Tier 1 components. They don't actually do a lot of the upstream engineering, that's thrown over the wall to the Tier 1 suppliers who are outsourcing some to Tier 2, 3, etc.

So what you get is a hodge podge of hardware that has its own proprietary software that you need to figure out how to integrate. Before, you'd just add a button that would send a signal to a domain-based controller (so 1 controller serving one or a small amount of functions) to do something. But now it all needs to feed into a zonal or central architecutre with an operating system. That can also be bought off-the-shelf from a Tier 1, but in a world where software and data is driving all the critical functions of the car (not to mention market value of companies), it's suicide to outsource the software. So now you have legacy manufacturers with legacy processes trying to do an upstream engineering job they're used to outsourcing to the Tier 1 and something they are totally unfamiliar with, build a software stack.

And then you have the service impacts further downstream with the cars constantly in the shop and technicians who are also lost because the person who designed it didn't have a good grasp of what they were doing in the 1st place.

Here you go, straight from Jim Farley himself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrNN6goQe50

The entire interview if you're interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IhSWsQlaG8

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by ZAMIRZ

This is a valuable point that not a lot of people talk about.

The legacy auto manufacturers EVs aren't particularly good cars.

The legacy auto manufacturer product development process is as an integrator of Tier 1 components. They don't actually do a lot of the upstream engineering, that's thrown over the wall to the Tier 1 suppliers who are outsourcing some to Tier 2, 3, etc.

So what you get is a hodge podge of hardware that has its own proprietary software that you need to figure out how to integrate. Before, you'd just add a button that would send a signal to a domain-based controller (so 1 controller serving one or a small amount of functions) to do something. But now it all needs to feed into a zonal or central architecutre with an operating system. That can also be bought off-the-shelf from a Tier 1, but in a world where software and data is driving all the critical functions of the car (not to mention market value of companies), it's suicide to outsource the software. So now you have legacy manufacturers with legacy processes trying to do an upstream engineering job they're used to outsourcing to the Tier 1 and something they are totally unfamiliar with, build a software stack.

And then you have the service impacts further downstream with the cars constantly in the shop and technicians who are also lost because the person who designed it didn't have a good grasp of what they were doing in the 1st place.

Here you go, straight from Jim Farley himself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrNN6goQe50

If I'm not mistaken, this is what happened at Boeing causing so many quality problems.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by G50

But I actually agree with you. I don’t think the govt should be giving such massive subsidies to push electrics. It hasn’t been well though out enough. Electrics are the knee jerk, simplistic response to “supposedly” polluting modern ICE cars.

Much like the HUGE subsidies we give to farmers to grow corn (food) and make ethanol to put into gas. It is insane to use tons of diesel fuel in tractors and burn coal to run the ethanol plants to make a "green" fuel. All driven by the farm lobby and government subsidies. I sure wish we had a aerial photography federal subsidy.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

Much like the HUGE subsidies we give to farmers to grow corn (food) and make ethanol to put into gas. It is insane to use tons of diesel fuel in tractors and burn coal to run the ethanol plants to make a "green" fuel. All driven by the farm lobby and government subsidies. I sure wish we had a aerial photography federal subsidy.

Farm owners are doing the math on that, and it doesn't look good for ethanol even with the subsidies.

A farm owner can spend thousands on diesel fuel to till the farm (only to watch some of it blow or wash away), spend thousands on seed, spread thousands of dollars worth of chemicals on his land, buy or lease a half million dollar harvester, and hope the weather and the market holds out for a profitable harvest. And do it all every year, over and over again.

OR

Lease the land to a solar producer, collect guaranteed rent checks, and retire.

Going to all that work and expense to produce ethanol fuel for cars doesn't make a lot of sense when he can net out a similar profit for no effort or risky annual investments making electricity for electric cars.

[GH85Carrera]

One of my grandparents good friends had a farm and worked hard to earn a living. One day the local power company came over and asked to put a large electrical transmission through some of his property. They pay rent to him and now still to his grandkids.