Bayesian sinking

[berettafan]

Wouldn't a dowburst pretty much absolve the crew of any liability on this? I mean you cannot plan for that.

[hcoles]

Originally Posted by berettafan

Wouldn't a dowburst pretty much absolve the crew of any liability on this? I mean you cannot plan for that.

Good point. I think the design is going to come into question. E.g. the sliding glass door that opens when the boat heels. We will find out but probably not soon. They are going to raise the boat with the cost to be paid by the owner.

[crb07]

Originally Posted by berettafan

Wouldn't a dowburst pretty much absolve the crew of any liability on this? I mean you cannot plan for that.

The boat has been around since 2008, who knows how many trips across the Atlantic, and it just rolls over and sinks?

[berettafan]

But a downburst as i understand it is incredibly violent and powerful. More akin to a tornado than a wind storm. Maybe like going under a massive waterfall.

[3rd_gear_Ted]

Originally Posted by berettafan

Wouldn't a dowburst pretty much absolve the crew of any liability on this? I mean you cannot plan for that.

What it did was show how incompetent the crew was during a localized weather event which occur in that region with seasonal regularity.
There improper actions negated any design features of the ship.
Waking the passengers and having them huddle up for an hour in a sea tight ship until the storm passed is what the marine insurance company expected from the captain & crew.

[hcoles]

Originally Posted by berettafan

But a downburst as i understand it is incredibly violent and powerful. More akin to a tornado than a wind storm. Maybe like going under a massive waterfall.

That's my understanding as well. And can't really see them coming like a squall.

[crb07]

Article with no BS. "Importantly, the forecast for the area for August 19 called for storms, but not to the severity that resulted."


http://https://megayachtnews.com/2024/08/the-bayesian-sinking-facts-fiction-opinions/

[HobieMarty]

https://youtu.be/C9d0X1SxfLg?si=ltpzEJLHYYJCuT1N

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[HobieMarty]

https://youtu.be/mGULtQjJrvQ?si=5rNaAI5Sx1ffw2ot

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[greglepore]

Of course he lawyered up. He's in Italy. Not the place to be if you're prosecuted. Nothing good could come of a meeting with prosecutors.

[crb07]

Originally Posted by HobieMarty

https://youtu.be/mGULtQjJrvQ?si=5rNaAI5Sx1ffw2ot

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Angle of heel for down flooding to start; 45 degrees? Oooff. Not good.

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Not sure if this has been posted

Insights from a previous captain of the Bayesain

https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesian-captain-offers-insight/

[HobieMarty]

https://youtu.be/vX-y4g1shtI?si=V2a675bKqLJ93BkC



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[HobieMarty]

https://youtu.be/9Z7vyRh2ccs?si=b3BQ378VUQXO-WsV

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[greglepore]

This has become a tabloid enterprise. Poor souls.

[hcoles]

Originally Posted by Captain Ahab Jr

Not sure if this has been posted

Insights from a previous captain of the Bayesain

https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesian-captain-offers-insight/

Thanks for posting that. A lot of good info. there.

[greglepore]

Originally Posted by hcoles

Thanks for posting that. A lot of good info. there.

Indeed. 45 degrees is not much, and running a/c and genset makes boat vulnerable. Forecast wasn't for anything extreme.

The comments about the crew are nonsense. They were on deck, where they should have been. Pax were below in a/c comfort. Boat rolls on side and sinks in minutes. All the furniture etc below trapped the pax. Crew's above and ends up in the water or in the inflatable.

Its why I made the tabloid fodder comment. Folks need to get real.

[911 Rod]

I guess people need this now that the imploding sub story is old.

[HobieMarty]

Originally Posted by greglepore

This has become a tabloid enterprise. Poor souls.

Yeah, like it was mentioned in one of the videos I posted, this story has all the elements of a tabloid story. Extravagant yacht sinks quickly with the millionaire and family on board, conspiracy theories, sudden weather events. Stuff that doesn't happen every day, ya know kinda intrigues us common folks.

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[jyl]

Originally Posted by Captain Ahab Jr

Not sure if this has been posted

Insights from a previous captain of the Bayesain

https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesian-captain-offers-insight/

Very informative, thank you.

He says at 45 deg the ship would start flooding from HVAC ducts, not from doors and hatches which would not flood until a much greater angle.

It seems to me that HVAC ducts are small relative to the conditioned volume, so the ship would have to stay heeled for some period of time before the flooding would overcome the righting force. Downbursts usually last a few minutes, I think. I wonder how close the ship was to surviving.

It also seems to me that the HVAC ducts could have been positioned at the centerline . . .

See below for excerpts:

"The downflooding angle for Bayesian was around 40-45 degrees… much less than the AVS. So, unless the vent dampers are closed (which with HVAC systems and generator running they would NOT be as they need to be open for that), the vessel will start to flood rapidly if heeled more than the downflooding angle."

"Bayesian had only one shell door in the hull, on the port side aft. As this was very close to the waterline, it was rarely used (remembering the extra 30T of ballast mentioned earlier… this caused the water line to be 100mm higher than other 56m Perinis, hence much closer to the bottom of the shell opening meaning it could only be opened in flat calm conditions… 100% it was NOT open at night)

There are no opening windows or portholes, which are all made from laminated marine glass bonded to the hull & superstructure.

Other deck hatch / superstructure openings that breach the watertight integrity on Bayesian are on or close to the centerline of the vessel. For these to be taking water if open, the vessel would have to be heeled way beyond the Downflooding Angle mentioned earlier, and hence already flooding via ducting/vents."