Unfortunately there are always a sizeable number of aircraft undergoing maintenance that simply can't be moved. MacDill AFB may get hit hard with a lot of aircraft lost. Hope I'm wrong.

I just watched a 60 minutes article on how the insurance companies in Florida screwed a lot of policy holders after Hurricane Ian. Some of these insurance company folks need to go to prison.

Keep us in your prayers. Bonita Springs residents East of I75, we're riding this one out. We are officially out of the flood zone, but we are zone B. It's a tough call, but 75 is a barrier in our favor

You and the missus stay safe Doug ... this one is different :(

Be smart and be well all!

Absolutely!

For today's adventure I drove through rural FL to Claremont. Rural FL looks a lot like rural SC. I'm not sure why that surprised me, but it did. The hotel is exactly what I expected, it's one of those places where the riff-raff live. In other words, I fit right in. Haha.

All the stations are out of gas. I have 3/4 of a tank left, and want to conserve it. That means no piddle-buttin around looking for a good restaurant or bar. Ugh!

Anyway, I'm trying to be upbeat and look at this as a forced vacation. So far my vacation sucks.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1728406784.jpg

Good luck, Dixe. Hanging in Naples for now. Keeping an eye on Milty:eek:

I took a cursory look at the insurance situation.

State-run Citizens Property Insurance is the largest player in FL, with 19% market share. Universal Insurance (UVE) has 9%, State Farm 5%, the other national insurers are not in the top ten implying <1% share. I guesstimate each share point is about $23BN of insured value.

Citizens has $104BN insured value in (wind-only and multi-peril) in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota counties, the general Tampa-St Petersburg metro region. Citizens has has $10BN cash and investments, total $11BN assets and $5BN equity. It bought $3.6BN of reinsurance coverage for the 2024 hurricane season. I don't know how much of that reinsurance coverage is in the Tampa-St Pete region, maybe a third, or what the thresholds are. Citizens does not look over-capitalized, to say the least. Universal looks even thinner - incredible that $189BN of insured loss in FL is being underwritten by a microcap insurer with only $1.2BN cash and equivalents.

Anyway, from the cursory info above, the chance that Milton causes a Florida insurance crisis seems not-low.

Glad you're safe.

Latest NOAA forecast has worst storm surge in Tampa proper (and part of Charlotte). X-ing fingers the surge at your house stays below your threshold!

Be safe. I can't imagine going through this. I will no longer complain about the wildfire smoke we now get most summers. That's about the extent of our natural disaster worry in my area.

My wife's aunt lives in north Ft. Myers. She refuses to evacuate. Her son said he will come get her and she said she would call the police if her tries to make her leave. He granddaughter that lives on California called her and told her she would fly in and rent a car to get her out. She told the granddaughter, don;t wast your time and money, I will not leave.

She is 88 and has some health issues. He husband died 5 years ago. It sound like she is giving up on living. No one can do much to force her out as she is sharp mentally.

If its wind, yes. Flood, not covered.

I've been in my house 11 years now. When I moved in in 2013, my next door neighbor was in her mid 90s. In 2015 we had a bad wind storm that knocked our power out for a week and it was in the mid 30s during the day. I tried and tried to get her to come over. I had a generator going and gas fireplace keeping my main floor at 70 degrees. She flat refused. She told me she was ready to go and that this might just be her time. She ended up living another 4+ years and was a few months away from hitting 100 when she died. She was a fiesty old thing. I miss her.

Slight shift to the South now.......

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Good for Tampa region, not good for Port Charlotte and Ft Meyers.

Latest storm surge model is markedly less severe in Tampa area than this morning’s. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212734.shtml?inundation#contents

Storm rotates CCW so greatest surge is south of track and lesser surge is north of track.

To quote one of my ex g/f's........"Everything in life is a trade off."

Doug - I thought you lived in Naples. Did you move to Bonita Springs or is that just where you are hunkering down? Just curious.

Back in the early 90's when I was living in Lehigh Acres/working in Ft Myers, myself and 2-3 other guys would meet every Wed. after work in Bonita Springs (where one of them lived) to do a mini-triathlon. His house was on a lake and that's where we did our swim. Great memories!

High tide in Tampa is 0615 on Thursday, what time is this supposed to hit again?

That little animation on the video looks bad for Fort Myers, 100 mph wind pushing all that water into the bay, yikes

This sucker expanded significantly over night. Here's hoping it weakens before landfall.

It's not looking good ... at all :(.

Hopefully folks are ready ...

Stay safe!

The hurricane is expected to be weaker when it makes landfall (to category 3 or 4) but from what I’m reading, the storm surge severity is more determined by how strong it is before then.