Stock Chat... What are you looking at?

[cabmandone]

JYL mentioned MP Materials a while back. It just made a nice jump on some news about the DOD.

"The DoD is set to become MP Materials' largest shareholder at 15% following an initial $400 million purchase of a new class of "preferred stock convertible into shares of the Company's common stock, and a warrant permitting DoD to purchase additional shares of the Company's common stock."

Maybe we should start a collective investment group! I've been watching but didn't pull the trigger. Ain't that the way it goes?

[jyl]

I think that in 2030 MP could have $1.4BN revenue and $700MM EBITDA - or better said, I think that investors will think that.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by jyl

I think that in 2030 MP could have $1.4BN revenue and $700MM EBITDA - or better said, I think that investors will think that.

I know EBCDIC ... but that is a new one ...

Are you in or out ?

Now ... not day before yesterday

Thanks John!

[cabmandone]

I was considering buying MP after JYL mentioned it earlier. It seemed like a good company to buy into since it's pretty much the only game in town when it comes to mining and production in the USA. I had too many other things on my plate and didn't research like I should have. Still seems like a lot of upside potential going forward.

On a side note, how much higher can NVIDIA go? It just keeps rolling.

[jyl]

Consensus has $2.0BN revenue in 2030, I came up with a more conservative $1.4BN based solely on MP's production capacity and the DoD price guarantee, I wanted to compare that to market size. You can find US imports of REO, compounds, finished magnets in USGS reports. Since US is retreating from EV production, battery production, wind turbines, etc, I don't know how much US REE consumption will grow in coming years. It has actually declined in last 2 years, per USGS. Assuming it somehow grows +5%/yr going forward, my best guesstimate is that MP magnet production in 2030 could be very roughly similar to, or possibly greater than, total US demand. So to get big upside to consensus estimates, seems either US REE consumption has to grow more than that, or MP has to get substantial export business (since MP's price will be essentially fixed to DoD and likely lower on open market). But MP cannot compete with Chinese REE exports to rest of world, unless the importing countries tariff/restrict Chinese REE. I don't know if Japan and Europe will want to make Chinese REE 2-3X more expensive for their own consumers/industries, just to benefit a US REE company. In fact, if I were them I'd jointly fund their own non-US, non-China REE competitor (say Lynas) because why should they think the US will be a reliable, friendly supplier of REE to them? Maybe we (US) start withholding REE from EU as part of an endless trade/tariff war.

I don't know. Have held MP six months, made 2X, don't think stock is necessarily being driven by skeptical conservative modeling like mine versus breathless bull cases, not so sure valuation matters at all in the short term, but of course my estimates could be totally wrong. So haven't decided what to do, maybe take some profits and move more to LYSDY in non-taxable portfolios I run and look for offsetting losses in taxables. It'll remain a very volatile stock regardless, doubt it goes anywhere in a straight line. I owned MP in 2020-2022 period, have seen it move around a lot though I do think its current drivers are durable.

[Alan A]

Originally Posted by KFC911

I know EBCDIC ... but that is a new one ...

Are you in or out ?

Now ... not day before yesterday

Thanks John!

EBIDTA is what separates a BEng from a BSc…
At least when I went and got me one of those things it was.

Which now I think about it is quite a long time ago.

But then I also know what EBCDIC and HLASM is, so I’m really starting to feel old. Christ now I’m all LLM…


And FWIW my kids like RBLX. They bought the IPO.

Based on BTC I’d be lobbing a few $ into ETH - I saw they are trying to do the same for it. Last I bought was at $325 a pop, so it’s done me right.

[cabmandone]

News about Apple lifted MP materials. That stock is on a tear. NVIDIA has really shot up with AMD coming along for the ride.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2025/07/15/apples-500-million-deal-with-mp-materials---only-rare-earths-mine-in-us---sends-stock-soaring/

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-jumps-returns-to-china-ai-market/

I don't get into penny stocks but I've thought about buying American Rare Earths Limited (AARNF). They're trying to develop Halleck Creek.

[LWJ]

Lithia Motors. Based in Oregon. Has a P/E in the 10's as of yesterday. This is a well run, high margin company that is trading WAY under the S&P 500 average multiple. Look at the historical numbers. I have made similar (more, actually) on LAD as I have Apple. Downside? It is VOLATILE. Upside? The auto industry is consistently profitable. Americans LOVE to drive cars. Upside - 4 income streams: New cars, Used cars, Service and Parts (51ish% margins!!!) and Financing. My reservation is on their financing arm should the economy crater.

[jyl]

USGS has data through 2024 on total US imports of rare earth products, which equals total US consumption. (US production of oxide was essentially all exported until this year.) You can look up what REE products are used for and think about whether/how much US consumption will grow. That gives a sense of the total US market for REE. Compare to expected supply from MP and estimate how much unmet market need there may be left for new entrants. Then estimate global market for REE products, excluding Chinese domestic market, and will Japan, Europe, India etc source REE products from China or from a Western REE company? If you think there is a big opportunity, consider if you want to own a REE miner or a REE refiner/maker of end product.

REE is a tiny market - I think US imports are only a couple hundred million dollars per year? (Check that, From memory.) It happens to be the tiny but vital nail for the want of which the kingdom could be lost. That doesn’t mean there is necessarily a big market for those nails.

By the way, US companies’ shortage of REE is their own fault. They easily could have stockpiled five years’ worth. Japanese companies did. The US companies were too stupid and too greedy, they’d rather buyback a few more shares and boost executive compensation.

[jhynesrockmtn]

I occasionally look at my portfolio of blue chip dividend stocks. It's boring, but a good steady 3% dividend return plus price appreciation (or not). I have not sold or bought anything new in years.

[cabmandone]

Tech stocks just keep rollin!

I was looking more at American Rare Earths Ltd and can't wrap my head around ARRNF trading on OTC and AMRRY trading on ADR. OTC is at .27 and ADR is 10.40. Is there a reason I should be looking at one versus the other?

[GG Allin]

The Q ETF's are where it's at. JEPQ, QQQI (14% dividend), QLD, TQQQ......

[cabmandone]

Intel is one I've mentioned several times. I wish I had bought more around the $19/share range but....

Some news coming out that's driving shares higher.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-ceo-draws-support-revival-110446672.html

"SoftBank Group Corp. agreed to take a $2 billion stake in Intel, as the Japanese company seeks a broader role in the artificial intelligence boom."

And there's a possibility that the funds from the CHIPS act might go towards buying shares rather than being a grant. I personally think that's a GREAT idea.
"take a stake of about 10% in Intel, possibly by converting grants made to the company under the US Chips and Science Act into equity"

[LWJ]

^^^Oh yeah. I was looking at Intel back then and wondering what I was missing? Didn't do it either.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by LWJ

^^^Oh yeah. I was looking at Intel back then and wondering what I was missing? Didn't do it either.

I did it. I just wish I bought more! If what's being contemplated actually comes to fruition, and Intel Foundry gets it's .... together, I think the stock could double fairly quickly. I don't think it'll shoot up as fast as MP Materials did since MP is the only player in the game here. But I think an infusion of cash and some good news out of the foundry division could make it jump.

A weird one is Home Depot today. They missed on earnings but the stock is up 4.2% today. It seems like missing on earnings has been punished pretty severely lately.

[JeremyD]

two sectors to watch - if the fed lowers interest rates - you will see stocks like Builders First and Home Depot / Lowes do well. [Which is why Home Depot improved even after missing earnings] 2nd is the energy sector. AI takes considerable energy resources. That means that Companies that supply electricity and those that manage the resource. I have a client Vertiv that makes power switching systems for data centers - they have a 22 month backlog and can't make their systems fast enough.

[jyl]

Looking at MMI

The CRE brokers and property managers are working because CRE owners who didn’t want to sell at lower prices can’t hold on any more, because big institutional funds are getting back into buying, because even REO property still needs to be managed, and because investors are betting on the Fed cutting rates regardless of inflation or employment data.

The biggest names have run away, like CBRE. I bought some NMRK but it has run too. So sifting through the laggards.

[cabmandone]

I've been looking at energy ETF's and consumer staples ETF's but haven't really considered any individual stocks. I was thinking along the lines of what Jeremy mentioned regarding data center demand but haven't been able to zero in on any one particular stock.

Side note: Is Newegg (NEGG) a pump and dump? I haven't read much in the way of big news but it's way up over the last few days.

[William930t]

Markets certainly like what Powell said today about a future interest rate cut. Here is a screenshot of my actual and test option trades, something I have been doing for years. Lots of risk to reward, not for everybody. Only three of these trades are actual, LLY, ACB and CGC. With the latter two, I am betting that there will be cannabis rescheduling in the near future.

Screenshot resolution may be poor.

[cabmandone]

Things should get more interesting with Intel.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-announces-89-billion-investment-from-us-government-which-will-own-99-of-chipmaker-180452175.html