No thoughts on the crypto crash?
 

So... wadda you think?

An OG whale shorted and dumped his wallet.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/crypto-bloodbath-wipes-out-billions-signs-stabilization-emerge-says-expert

You're welcome

Crypto is an interesting study in currency speculation. It is highly volatile by nature so I would not sweat a lot of movement due to irrational fear.

Things that do make me sweat:
* A lot of people are buying on heavy margin. 1929 anyone??
* Billions can disappear in a few keystrokes through theft, fraud and scams with no recourse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried

Crypto went super illiquid for a short time, during which prices of some of the ***** coins (alt coins) dropped 70-90%, and since lots of crypto bros are levered, they were liquidated at the bottom. Something like $19BN of crypto was liquidated, lots of levered bros were wiped out. On the other hand, whoever was on the other side of those liquidation trades made huge returns. This all happened in minutes.

BTC and ETH were less volatile, but still moved like -30%.

More evidence, if any were needed, that crypto is not a “store of value” or “digital gold”. It’s just a very volatile speculative trading vehicle. Of course, crypto will be permitted in IRAs and 401ks soon, because connected people in the government make lots of money on crypto.

This is a great story. The short was done from a trading account that was opened Friday morning and funded with a wire...

No thoughts on crypto, but this style of writing is a waste of bandwidth.

"Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell below $110,000, while Ethereum and other major tokens lost more than 20% of their value within hours. "

The author compares a finite amount to a percentage, what's the point of that? Is the author just too lazy to calculate the percentage change of Bitcoin?

Crypto is volatile. What's to discuss?

Still struggling on how it has any value at all.

I mean, I understand the "proof of work done proves value" concept etc. but only when the work that gets done has any value to anyone.

IDT an e-check has any value either, but banks that use ACH recognize them and other banks honor them. What's the difference? Supposedly banking is encrypted AFA electronic transactions go.

Wouldn't the ACH be stored on many servers? I'm sure y'all have an answer, it's just a rhetorical question.

BTW, when I first became aware of Bitcoin many years ago, I was working on a house the belonged to a finance guy and we were friends, so we gabbed a lot. The subject came up and he wasn't aware. I did my best to explain what I knew, the basics. He just said no way could he understand it and no way it would work. Lost track of him, wonder what he thinks now?

Me too, but I’m pretty conservative when it comes to money. My simple mind can grasp investing in a company that has products, employees, real estate, etc. Investing in a vaporware currency backed by nothing is way outside of my comfort zone.

That’s pretty much the US dollar ^^^

Ha. Although at least you don't lose your USD forever if you forget your passphrase or accidentally send it to a dead address. That's the one aspect of crypto that I think will scare off most people. Isn't something like 20-30% of all bitcoin supply gone forever? I'm very bearish on crypto. I'm sure I'm probably wrong too, but I will never put my $$ into it. I'm not a super conservative investor either, I've invested in a lot of complex assets, but I just can't get my head around the use case for crypto, beyond pure speculation, money laundering or engaging in illicit trade.

Nah, LE just steals your physical cash using asset forfeiture laws, as all cash is a prerequisite to ill-gotten business.

Crypto produces no cash flow, generates no product or service, employs no one, and in spite of the "mining story" it is only worth what the next guy will pay for it. It is pure currency speculation that has *so far* seen very favorable appreciation in the market long term. Will this continue?? Nobody really knows.

There have been a lot of big winners but also a lot of theft, fraud, and scams. It is the wild west, not unlike the Calif gold rush. They say that with rare exception, the big winners in 1849 were the guys selling the shovels and supplies, not the miners.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_gold_rush

Other forms of speculative assets that have faded: Tulips, Confederate currency.
Other forms of speculative assets currently on a run: Gold and silver.

Choose wisely.

Gold and Silver at least have uses besides speculation….they are on a tear because the dollar is tanking.

Indeed. The dollar was also tanking in the late 70s after the oil embargo when gold went from $200/oz to $900/oz in a short period. Then the dollar stabilized and gold went down to $400/oz and stayed flat for 30 years. This is the nature of currency speculation.

Will the dollar stabilize again or fade from existence? Nobody really knows.

Sooo... you're saying we should buy the dip?

Feeling lucky? Crypto doesn't suit my investing style but if you personally like it, definitely buy low, sell high. ;)

The federal reserve has put out feelers for a digital currency years ago. With the history of bitcoin, this would be an easy transfer by the fed. Of course, with any purely centralized currency leads to abuse. I like Au, Ag, Pt, and Pb for when the others fail.

One thing to consider:

If there is a "digital US Dollar" that everyone uses freely, then there is no more need for "bank deposit accounts".

No bank accounts means no "banks".

No banks means all lending moves to "non-bank lenders".

Non-bank lenders are, currently, among the least regulated, most opaque, and least-understood risk parts of the financial system. No-one knows how much leverage non-bank lenders (individually or in aggregate) have, how their loans are performing, if they are well run or recklessly run, if they are rock solid or a house of cards and about to blow up like Tricolor or those that lent to First Brands. There is no-one to seize a failing non-bank lender, shut it down, protect the rest of the financial system from chain reactions. The FDIC doesn't backstop them, the Federal Reserve doesn't regulate them, no states oversee them. They are basically the Wild West (not saying they are all reckless/risky, but no way to know which ones are).

One type of non-bank lender has publicly traded stock, so we can observe their prices. These are the "BDC" (business development corporation") names like BXSL OBDC ARCC TSLX MAIN. Oooo, not acting well.

But of course, until things blow up, it is possible for the connected to make tons of money with non-bank lenders. So that's one reason for the push for the "digital dollar".

Spent a few years inside two bigly banks years ago ... but small compared to what they have evolved to now.

Moving 50 Billion each day through the Federal Reserve's central banking system (warts and all) was small 'taters even back then.

That system made the US economy second to none.... and it sucks in many ways ;)

It's all digital imo ... 1s and 0s ... even gold, etc. for the most part and one big ol' Three Card Monte shell game.

Crypto is TCM on $teroid$ tho :(

I was a sucker in NYC once ... as a teen ... lost $40 :D