Maybe Kerry didn't win the debate after all

[bryanthompson]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6294-2004Oct4.html

President Bush continues to lead rival Sen. John F. Kerry among likely voters despite surging enthusiasm for Kerry among Democrats and new doubts about whether the president has a clear plan to deal with terrorism and the situation in Iraq, according to the Washington Post tracking poll.

In the aftermath of last week's presidential debate, Bush currently leads Kerry 51 percent to 46 percent among those most likely to vote, according to polling conducted Friday through Sunday. Independent candidate Ralph Nader claims 1 percent of the hypothetical vote.

And this CNN/USAToday/Gallup Poll (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/index.html)

President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.

The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.

[ubiquity0]

errr....But given that Bush had an 8 point to 12 point lead (depending on poll) a week or two ago, and the debate has been the only significant event since then I don't see how you can argue that the polls confirm Kerry lost the debate? By my calcs the 0 point to 5 point lead that Bush now enjoys means that Kerry has gained between 3-12 points due to the debate.

[tabs]

And the Margin of Error fits in where?????

[cegerer]

I heard JFK has hired Clinton's old manicurist and hair stylist - as well as a slightly less orange-tone for the spray-on tan - for the next debate. Dan Rather says it may be worth another 2 points in the polls ..... American politics at its best

[ubiquity0]

Originally posted by tabs
And the Margin of Error fits in where?????

Too complimicated for me...

Maybe assuming 4% margin on each of the 4 polls (i.e. I can’t be bothered looking them all up) I get Bush dropping from somewhere between a 4-16 point lead to between 4 points behind to 9 points ahead.

i.e. it means bugger all

[Superman]

And in the meantime, new voters are registering by the millions. Virtuall all states are reporting at least a three-fold increase in voter registrations. Creating an interesting problem for the researchers and statisticians who are trying to do estimation.

[red ufo]

Maybe Kerry didn't win the debate after all
Maybe the sky isn't blue.
Maybe fat chicks are better in bed.
Maybe blondes are smarter than brunettes.
Maybe McDonalds food is good for you.

[island911]

Maybe Bush didn't win the war in Iraq after all . .. .

I find it interesting that the same people who can have the concept that the war in Iraq was won, but not really; are the same ones who won't budge off the notion that Kerry won the debate and . ... (well that's where it ends for these partisan hacks.)

[EdT82SC]

Well, if the 2000 election is anything to go by we should know the answer to this question by some time in December.