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-   -   Going Up! Real estate prices - where does it end... does it matter? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/205909-going-up-real-estate-prices-where-does-end-does-matter.html)

JavaBrewer 02-11-2005 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by motion
Lee - My advice: Take some money out of your home and buy an investment home or two in Phoenix. Sell it in a year or so when the market cools and pocket the hundred Gs. Homes over on the west-side can be had for $200k new. They should be worth $300k in another year.
Richard, you've done your homework and bought in that area. I've read that new home builders are really putting the clamps on out-of-state investors. What areas (over on the west-side) are you talking about? What builders are the most favored? Internet presence?

Thanks.

tabs 02-11-2005 03:36 PM

In my development there are 11 houses for sale out of 172....2100 sq just closed for 400K....just dirt for the backyard....one across the stret just like it is for sale at 450K....3000 sq fters are 525K to 600 + K with furniture....3700 sq is 605K to 649K which for the most part are reduced in price...the holidays are not a good time to be selling and the latest one put up for sale is 4000 sq with 1/2 acre and pool and gorgeous bkyd...(backs a 4 lane street) 800K....which is 50K more than the last one of the same size sold for last summer.

All the builders new home projects in my area say from the low 600's for 3000 sq plus homes....

I drove through a new home development and was astonished by the number of new homes that are vacant with for sale signs..that means investors rather than home owners....

On the other side of the coin....a large tract of land near me was just auctioned off by the BLM for 298K an acre undeveloped...with infrastructure it comes to about 600K an acre....which is up for a tract of land in Henderson that was sold last spring for 289K an acre...so prices have stabilized and show that the LV market is still viable at these price levels..

motion 02-11-2005 03:43 PM

David,

Yep, its really impossible to buy now as a pure investor. That goes not only for Phoenix, but also California and Utah as well. Builders simply will not sell to investors any more. In Phoenix, DR Horton is the only investor-firendly builder left, and they are getting a mandatory $20k "lot premium" for all investor purchases. To buy one, you need to buy it as your "second home". You can probably get away with buying a couple this way, but that's it. The good old days for investors are over.

I bought mine in Litchfield Park.

Tabs - I hate to say this.... but I think the gig is up in LV. I saw this coming a long time ago.. and I really don't even know what the hell I'm doing. It will happen in Phoenix also, in about a year or so.

tabs 02-11-2005 03:47 PM

I talked with Mother today, she said it usually take 5 rate hikes to effect the mortgage market..we've had 4 so far.....HOme prices are undoubtly leveling off..yet the home market analysts think we are at the begining of a bubble not the end of one, with certain geographical areas in CA being overpriced....Chico, Stockton, Santa Barbara being the 3 that I can remember...simply because it wasn't what one would expect... They expect LV to remain viable....

I have become very conscience of how money flows over the past few years....one class of assets will do very well while another languishes in the doldrums.....when that one area becomes overpriced money will come out of that area and seek a place that is considered to be undervalued....lately I have noticed that the financial gurus are talking about a bounce in the stock market by as much as 40%....where is that smiling face thingy when you need it....

tabs 02-11-2005 03:57 PM

There are NO More easy picken in LV, the market has matured...aka it has become expensive...yet like CA will it crash and burn? I came just in time to make some money....remember if LV crashes so will CA.....

And DR Horton is the Builder my Construction Defect Attorney says is the worst builder he has to deal with....they had 6 attorneys on a case against him and lost, it was the largest singlefamily home award in NV at 280K....part of the deal was they had to buy the family a new home....

My Builder...Rhodes Homes has the reputation of being a drug addict scum bag...who btw contributed money to Dem Sen Harry Reids (Senate Minority Leader) political campaign illegally...low level Rhodes emplyees donating money when they don't even have a history of voting....also I believe I read in the Newspaper that Rhodes was the contractor that built his home in Search LIght, NV...Hmmmmm

tabs 02-11-2005 03:58 PM

To be fair and balanced Jim Rhodes is registered as a Repblican...but seems to donate money to Dem political canidates that help him with his land deals...

turbo6bar 02-11-2005 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by motion
Lee - My advice: Take some money out of your home and buy an investment home or two in Phoenix.
Ummm, is that property held for investment or speculation?

tabs 02-11-2005 04:09 PM

U better plan on it being an investment....anything else down't make sense especially at this stage in the market cycle...

motion 02-11-2005 04:23 PM

Long term is always best, Jurgen. But I think there's still large money to be made in Phoenix speculating. Geez, I can't believe I just said that. Its worked for an idiot like me, so I don't see why it can't work for others. The party won't last forever, but why not get in while things are still hot? I believe that Phoenix/Tucson are still undervalued (at least compared to LV).

LeeH 02-11-2005 04:39 PM

I just got back from the mailbox. An agent sent out a card bragging about selling a house up the street from us for $348K in one day. I used to have a real estate license and it seems to me that if your listings sell in one day, you probably left some cash on the table.

turbo6bar 02-11-2005 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by motion
Long term is always best, Jurgen. But I think there's still large money to be made in Phoenix speculating. Geez, I can't believe I just said that. Its worked for an idiot like me, so I don't see why it can't work for others. The party won't last forever, but why not get in while things are still hot? I believe that Phoenix/Tucson are still undervalued (at least compared to LV).
As long as you realize the risks, run with it. It's crazy how some guys can make $20-200k without lifting a finger, but the reward matches the risk.

Carry on! SmileWavy

tabs 02-11-2005 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by turbo6bar
It's crazy how some guys can make $20-200k without lifting a finger
Yep thats how the ole Trust Fund works..... Mother just says stay the fk away and leave me alone....that if she let me run things I'd just muck them up.....So all I do is drink, gamble and buffet all day everyday.....not bad work if you can get it I say....

Porsche-O-Phile 02-12-2005 05:39 AM

Stupid question, but how the hell are people affording the down payments on these places nowadays? All I have for "real" money is a 401K - and a crapload of student loan debt.

turbo6bar 02-12-2005 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Porsche-O-Phile
Stupid question, but how the hell are people affording the down payments on these places nowadays? All I have for "real" money is a 401K - and a crapload of student loan debt.
Starts out small. Family A wants to sell their starter home. Family B gets a 103% mortgage despite the fact they have a credit score of only 550. Family B buys the starter home. Family A takes the equity from their old home and uses it as a down payment on a larger home. This effect works up the food chain.

Relaxed lending rules and low mortgage rates are the primary cause for this gold rush. More buyers are fighting for the properties. It is classic supply and demand.
Jürgen

RANDY P 02-12-2005 06:06 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Porsche-O-Phile
Stupid question, but how the hell are people affording the down payments on these places nowadays? All I have for "real" money is a 401K - and a crapload of student loan debt.
If you're FICO is high enough, who needs a down? If your scores are high enough you don't even need to prove your income or assets.

I'm not joking. My buddy who makes $2400 /mo on paper just got approved for a -0- down loan for $205K which puts the stroke over 50% of his earnings. We just had to state an appropiate (inflated to qualify) monthly income on the loan. NO proof necessary. He hustles side jobs for extra money and also moved in a friend who pays rent to help him. I'm closing a deal in HI where the borrower has a $9.00 / hr job + tips she doesn't claim and she's $193K into her $450K house and the payment legitimately 100% of her pretax earnings - and she's bought at 5.25% on a 5/1 ARM - stated income, stated assets.

If it wasn't for their FICO scores both of these deals would've been dead.

Other programs are doing that as well as allowing interest only payments and the qualification ratios are based on those artifically low payments. Also, up to 50% of Pretax debt for the house payment is OK - 55% with some lenders.

rjp

vash 02-12-2005 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Porsche-O-Phile
Stupid question, but how the hell are people affording the down payments on these places nowadays? All I have for "real" money is a 401K - and a crapload of student loan debt.
i think the new comers are taking out TWO loans. a regular one at a nice decent interest rate. then a second at a higher rate, but a smaller loan, just to cover the 20% down. that way you dont have to buy that extra mortgage insurance. then when the house appreciates, you refi, and lump both loans together. voila! at least that is what i think. me? i bought a small turd of a house that i cleaned and fixed up. still beotching about the one car garage tho. it took bascially all my life for me to save the 20% down. i still hug my tyranical mother for making me save since birth.

cliff

tabs 02-12-2005 09:53 AM

One of my neighbors has a Interest Only loan.....

Moneyguy1 02-12-2005 10:24 AM

Interest only loans..batting on massive increases in value. A gamble I, in LV, would not be willing to take. These are only for the truly ignorant OR for those with extremely high risk tolerance.

Then again, I am a very conservative investor.

tabs 02-12-2005 10:51 AM

My neighbor has nearly doubled the value of his home since he moved in....August 2003....actually so have I....these dam trailers just seem to keep going up in value....

tabs 02-12-2005 10:57 AM

Money I too was a conservative investor...till I met Mother...she has a penchant for using money to highest and best use....now ohhh my Gawd.....


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