Study shows that one third of all studies are wrong.
 

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/07/13/contradictory.studies.ap/index.html



I'm just going to give you the ridiculous headline and the honest-to-goodness link to a real cnn story, which really says that .... well, read it yourself!

I firmly believe that 94.65% of all quoted percentages are simply pulled out of someone's a$$ :)...

Statisticians call this "estimation." Ideally, it's an educated pull from the ass.

Re: Study shows that one third of all studies are wrong.
 

All generalizations are false.

Sounds like something from the Onion!

See, you got it all wrong. Jeesh

It should read, "Ideally, it's a pull from an educated ass".

There. Fixed.

We used to call it "ASPIC" when doing research and preparing a paper for dissemination:


Adjusted Simulated Pickout Intensity Code

Re: Re: Study shows that one third of all studies are wrong.
 

But Supe...I thought you had the 'Nascar crowd' all figured out :)

It's always the media's fault..........just remember that.;)

Facts are stupid things.
-- R. Reagan

Re: Re: Re: Study shows that one third of all studies are wrong.
 

Well that's the beauty, Keith. If all generalizations are false (all statements beginning with the word "all"), then "All generalizations are false" is not true. Meaning that not all generalizations are false. Meaning that some generalizations are true.

Generalizations about a group as diverse as "liberals," for example, would obviously be false. But generalizations regarding uniform groups like "conservatives" and NASCAR crowds would be true. Of course. I'm sure you see all this. You're just joking with me, right?

Sounds like a political poll:


Conservatives: 97.44% of all liberals are on acid.
Liberals: 94.77% of all conservatives need to drop acid.
GDI's: 100% of you are all screwed.

I sure hope this one is wrong:

-------------------------------------
Many Americans Unaware WMD Have Not Been Found

Four in Ten Overall

Majority of Those Who Favored the War and
Republicans Who Follow International Affairs Very Closely
A striking finding in the new PIPA/Knowledge Networks poll is that many Americans are unaware that weapons of mass destruction have not been found in Iraq. While 59% of those polled correctly said the US has not found Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, 41% said they believed that the US has found such weapons (34%) or were unsure (7%).

Steven Kull, director of PIPA, comments: "For some Americans, their desire to support the war may be leading them to screen out information that weapons of mass destruction have not been found. Given the intensive news coverage and high levels of public attention to the topic, this level of misinformation suggests that some Americans may be avoiding having an experience of cognitive dissonance."

"To some extent this misperception can be attributed to repeated headlines that there has been a promising lead in the effort to find evidence of such weapons' headlines that are not counterbalanced by prominent reporting that these leads have not been fruitful. But there is also reason to believe that this misperception may be unconsciously motivated, as the mistaken belief is substantially greater among those who favored the war."

Among those who approved of the decision to go to war and were not just supporting the president (53% of the sample), a majority of 52% said the US has found weapons of mass destruction (48%) or did not know (4%).

Among Republicans who said they follow international affairs very closely -- and thus may also be more exposed to headlines reporting promising leads -- an even larger percentage -- 55% --said weapons have been found, with just 45% saying they have not.

Another widespread misperception is that Iraq actually used chemical or biological weapons in the war. Twenty-two percent held this misperception, with 9% being unsure, while 69% correctly said that Iraq had not used such weapons. However, unlike the question of whether weapons have been found, there is no greater tendency to hold this belief among those who support the war, or are Republicans who follow international affairs closely, than there is in the general population.

The desire to reduce cognitive dissonance may also be skewing some Americans' memory of the government's rationale for going to war. Asked, "Thinking back to when the US government was making the case for going to war with Iraq, according to the government, what was the most important reason for going to war with Iraq?" 60% said "the evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction," and 19% said "the evidence that Iraq was working with the terrorist group al'Qaeda." But 20% said the most important reason was "the fact that Saddam Hussein was an oppressive dictator." Asked for the second most important reason, another 32% chose "the fact that Saddam Hussein was an oppressive dictator," while weapons of mass destruction were chosen by 24% and links to al'Qaeda by 42%.

A friend of mine often says, "Never forget that half the people are below average."

Okay, some people are inevitably going to be EXACTLY average and others at the extremes will skew the results, so it is not mathematically true, but it is close enough.

Thanks, Tech -- I knew you'd find a way to tie in some Bush-bashing. ;)

That article refers to medical clinical studies. Perhaps the record is better for other sorts of studies?

Re: Re: Re: Re: Study shows that one third of all studies are wrong.
 

Of course I was...the recent post someone made about their impressons after their first Nascar race made me do it! I do attend a race on occasion, but I'd also feel right at home at the OCF :)

Are we as a nation really that uninformed?

This is sad.

All things being equal...which they never are.

How ofetn do we read about or hear on the news about some food stuff that will prevent cancer or contribute to it? The argument concerning coffee is a prime example as is too little or too much water.

Stereotypes, generalizations, educated assumptions lean towards truth. To say that one can draw a confident conclusion based on a study would mean that the study would have to speak to all the dependent and independent variables at play. Pretty tough stuff to do. Then, you best well make sure that your statistical analysis is accurate.

Must studies are carried out by some pretty smart folks with a real narrow application. But I can give three axioms that are put near law!

1) People do not really give a ***** about what anyone really thinks (they are kind enough but absolute concern is really saved for your children and your folks and even then...)

2) People do not take seemingly good advice. Churches are filled with them, books stores have a whole section on 'self-help' and yet nobody really gets it. Even rehab and AA are loaded with repeat customers.

3) People just don't change. Habits, ideals, even political viewpoints - think about this board. The liberals and the conservatives - anybody ever switch camps?

Not to sound too cynical. I still believe that people are innately pretty decent and the world is a fasinating and beautiful place.

I'd really hate to let you down!

:-)