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Today's update on the real estate market:
---------------------- 31 Percent of the Housing Market 'Extremely Overvalued' According to New Economic Analysis National City Examination of Top 299 Metro Areas Shows California and Florida, with parts of Massachusetts and New York, to have the highest concentration of overvalued markets CLEVELAND, Aug. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- A study of the top 299 U.S. real estate markets released today by the economics department of National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) concludes that 53 metro areas representing 31 percent of the total U.S. housing market are "extremely overvalued" and confront a high risk of future price correction. Richard DeKaser, chief economist of National City Corporation, conducted the study which examines historical comparisons for the last 20 years and reflects 80 percent of the U.S. single family housing market. Markets with valuation premiums above 30 percent were deemed at risk for price corrections based on the typical degree of over-valuation that preceded the 63 known local market price declines observed since 1985. "If home prices are overvalued, then, by definition, the risk of a price correction is high. To the extent that economic growth remains strong, however, these risks will be greatly reduced," DeKaser said. "Given the obvious importance of this issue to the nation's economy, and the absence of any consensus regarding the question of housing market valuation, this report describes our efforts - and findings - along those lines." For the study, price-to-income ratios are statistically explained by household population density, mortgage interest rates, relative income levels and characteristics unique to each metro area. The study finds Santa Barbara, Calif. to be the country's most overheated market at 69 percent above the norm, while College Station, Texas, is ranked the most undervalued at 19 percent below the norm. A similar study by DeKaser in February found rising risk of price corrections in more than one dozen of the top 99 metro markets, which constituted localized house price "bubblettes." To view House Prices in America: Valuation Methodology and Findings, visit: www.nationalcity.com/economics. About National City National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, is one of the nation's largest financial holding companies. The company operates through an extensive banking network primarily in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania, and also serves customers in selected markets nationally. Its core businesses include commercial and retail banking, mortgage financing and servicing, consumer finance and asset management. For more information about National City, visit the company's Web site at NationalCity.com. |
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