When the RE Music is Over...
 

Well Boyz the RE BOOM is OVER....and now it's time to hold on to yer hats. Notice all the risk thats in CA...and notice where LV ranks.......http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/03/real_estate/buying_selling/pmi_riskiest-markets/index.htm

BTW...I am noticing that prices are being reduced in LV...5% seems to be the reduction....however it maybe that homeowners are over zealous in their pricing....and after a month or so reality begins to set in ....

Also the Builders are noticing that more people are falling out of escrow on the new product....

Where's the risk? No money down/Interest only loans. It's pretty much free money, right?

Wait till the droves of speculators just walk away from the properties.

Only old Joe is gona walk away clean from the coming RE crash. An the only reason he's gona walk away clean is that he bought his house back in 55 and has lived their for 50 years...The only regret he is gona have is that he is no longer a Millionaire based upon the equity in his house..."Yep sonny I was a RE magnet, a vertible TYCOOON and I lost it all in the crash of 07......"

Its slowing down here in Phoenix as well. One house around the corner has been on the market for 2 months, but its backed up to a major road so not the most desierable. House next door to me, and one next door to my neighbour have both been on the market for 3 weeks.

This spring all three would have been snapped up in a day, two at the most, so things are slowing down. Real estate friends of mine say things are still selling, but not at the cost + 10% range like they were.

JoeA

I work on the west side of Chicago--about 8 blox west of Greektown for those of you that have been here. Every industrial building torn down turns in to condos. Starting at 350K for a studio. The building directly north of us is gone and 67 condos are going up. 63 of them are sold already on spec--it's still a dirt lot and they start at 550K. We are sitting on the last 2 contiguous acres in the West Loop. No bubble here--yet. Word here is that once it starts slowing down, developers will immediately stop pursuing new developments.

I'm unloading my homes in Phoenix right now... lately, they've been selling in 1-2 days at record prices. Still pretty hot if you ask me. Prices are at an all time high here in South OC as well. And their's no inventory to speak of.

I'm guessing you're timing is excellent.

Inventory in Central MA is piling up. I'm not up to date on current selling prices, but the number of lots that meet my "dream criteria" had more than doubled since Aug 2004 (using a pre-canned search on Realtor.com). Asking prices seem unchanged but I can't imagine that will last long.

I have an advertiser here that had 500 units for sale. Ran full page, full color ads for 4 weeks, and now has 5,000 people on its sales list waiting. Still pretty hot here in Florida.

Inventory is very high in San Marcos but homes are still selling. Instead of the 1-2 days market time it's now more like 3-4 weeks, sometimes more. Previous record for our neighborhood of 85 homes was ~900K but two homes just sold for 958K and 1.1M and were on the market for 3 weeks. Note that these were nicely upgraded homes with premium lots and showed very very well. Homes that are not upgraded and/or have less desireable lots are sitting as the owners are trying to get matching prices.

Interesting how the speculators, builders and real estate agents always seem to say "We're selling faster/higher" contrary to any statistics that are published. Are there any hard stats (as opposed to anecdtotes) to back up the speculator/re agent/builder side of the story?

There are several houses for sale in my area that have been festering on the market for some time now. A couple of them have been on the market for so long that they pulled the signs down, even though they're still for sale.

People expecting a real estate "bust" are likely to be dissappointed. More likely appreciation will halt or slightly withdraw with minimal appreciation or some depreciation over the next decade or so. That is the nature of real estate. Not the sudden boom or crash that one can see in the stock market.

True, housing is being built at a rate greater than the growth rate of new US households, however:

1. Foreign money is keeping long term rates low and will likely keep them low unless the rest of the world develops some real accounting standards. So no matter how much Greenspan moves the short term rate, long term rates will stay low (barring some crisis) and this makes home buying attractive.

2. The real estate legislation signed in 1997 allows you to take up to $250K in appreciation tax free on real estate sales provided it has been your primary residence and you have been there for more than 2 years. This is a tax advantage that no other form of investment can beat. Unless the gov steps up to the plate and taxes the appreciation on the same level as stocks or lowers the capital gains tax on stock to match real estate, expect the speculation to continue.

Can you short-sell RE?

Sure. Some big builders are publicly traded. But we're not the only ones who think RE will get soft. I'm sure the market has already adjusted.

A few have lost loads selling the big builders short.

Seems there's one camp that wants things to go BOOM, so they can clean up the pieces; the other camp wants the gravy train to keep rollin' along...

the building i live in is just my house. instead of rent, i pay a mortgage. so i dont consider it an investment. in the bay area, i still see it as pretty hot.

Anybody who thinks that housing prices can't CRASH isn't playing with a full deck.....

Look at the number of homes being sold with Interest Only Loans...and those come do within a few years at which time the home owner has to refinace at the current rate...which is GUARNTEED to be higher than the current rate....the BULL MARKET in Bonds is OVER....uncertainity in the world situation is part of the reason why US Securitys are being bought by foreigners...Anyway the Interest Only Loans are being sold because it is the ONLY WAY for people to be able to AFFORD the high prices of RE....

Markets over time CORRECT EXCESSES.... and those PMI Insurance boyz aren'y whistleing Dixie for nothin...

Doesn't anybody believe in the Business Cycle anymore...

A question what is going to happen when those Interest Only Loans come due and the owner suddenly realizes that his equity in the home is gone....and he owes more than it is worth...all with a higher payment.....

Does anybody from SO CAL remember what happened in Moreno Valley in the early to mid 90's.....to refresh some of your memories and to let those readers who aren't familar with the MV story...you'd drive through neighborhoods where 10 or more houses on a street would be Boarded up as in foreclosed upon....people tried to refi not only to find the equity was gone and they were upside down on the existing loans, but the house was worth less than the week before.... NOW add those interest only loans scenerio into the mix....

Now now every area of the country is facing a diaster but those high PMI %%%% areas sure are....