Those BLOOD SUCKING Arabs

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Yep those nasty, pond scum Arabs are beeding us dry at the gas pumps...all they can think of is filling their pockets with our $$$$$$$$$$.....

That seems to be the concensus of belief on this Board ...anyway....

Well BABY let me drop this wet one on your parade....The Emir of Qatar said on Charlie Rose that, " I hope the price of oil goes DOWN, because of the Global Economic implications. That if prices remain high there will be a downturn in the world economy and that won't be so good."

[aap1966]

I thought it was China's demand for oil pushing the price up.
At $70/barrel, how long until the drilling starts in Antartica?

That'll piss Greenpeace off.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

% population owernship of cars in China is in the single digits.

As China builds a middle class off the backs of ours through great deals at Wal*Mart, what do you think the price of oil will be when 50% of Chinese households own at least one car?

[turbo6bar]

IF the US economy cracks under commodity prices, imports from China will drop. Folks in China will go back to ox-carts. High oil prices cannot sustain the world economy, in my opinion.

I've also seen such statements from Saudi leaders,"Oil prices should be in the $40/barrel range."

[Mule]

Tabs, I was thinking more along the lines of the blood sucking oil companies, which includes the arabs.

[BGCarrera32]

We have a fundamental lack of refining capacity, evident whatever way the cooks wanna spin it that says we don't. When a hurricane takes out 2 refineries in the Gulf and 7 of 9 drilling rigs consequently taking out 10-11% of the nations gasoline refining capacity that's not so good. The energy infrastructure is maxed and it won't get any better until people wake up and start demanding their senators and congressmen to get off their high horses and make some sensible energy policy moves. Crude isn't the real issue...remember days after Katrina Eurpoean countries began offering their emergency reserves of gasoline? A friendly gesture but in reality if our fuel driven economy tanks from lack of gas, so does theirs. I place the blame for the fuel cost/mess squarely on congress and previous adiministrations...not the Arabs or GWB. Interesting to note that pre-9/11 GWB was pouding on the very same refining issues and our fundamental lack of energy policy. Can't say he didn't try.


edited for spelling error...

[speedkillz]

Artifical shortages create higher prices. do any of you remember the 70's. once the price doubled...there was plenty of oil. BG is right we put all our eggs in one basket, this is what happens. plan on prices for regular at 2.50 a gal.

[Dottore]

Originally posted by turbo6bar
IF the US economy cracks under commodity prices, imports from China will drop. Folks in China will go back to ox-carts.

If you believe that, I have some real estate in New Orleans you may be interested in.

[Hugh R]

Originally posted by speedkillz
. plan on prices for regular at 2.50 a gal.

You mean $3.50 right? Regular is $2.99 or more here now.

[ronin]

Originally posted by Dottore
If you believe that, I have some real estate in New Orleans you may be interested in.

true. if anything, it will make Chinese imports even more viable due to their low price and high volume

[turbo6bar]

Look at Wal-Mart sales reports. They are not selling the consumer goods as much as necessities. Who hurts when DVD player sales are down? It is not that we choose NOT to buy Chinese goods, it is that we choose to NOT buy period. Along with a weak economy, we will likely see some form of real estate correction. Who buys those mortgage-backed securities? The Chinese only recently stopped the inflow of funds into MBS, but if the RE market sees an increase in defaults, the fallout could hurt overseas investors.

Again, I think high oil prices places the US economy at risk. If the US economy is at risk, the world economy is at risk.

Don't listen to the peon. Look at the equity markets. Any news is a good reason to sell. That isn't a good sign of stability and growth. Also, check out recent news from Best Buy.

Call me a pessimist, but I don't think things are looking good for the US economy. I cannot see how this is good for the Chinese economy.

[Rondinone]

Originally posted by speedkillz
Artifical shortages create higher prices. do any of you remember the 70's. once the price doubled...there was plenty of oil. BG is right we put all our eggs in one basket, this is what happens. plan on prices for regular at 2.50 a gal.

Yes, most people are not aware that the oil 'shortage' of the 70s was only a 5% decrease in supply. Think about that. Only 5%.

The current problem has been a long time coming. Over the past several years worldwide excess capacity has dwindled to somewhere between 0 and 1%, depending on who you believe. Part of the problem is we don't really know anything about the Saudi supply, because our data is 30 years old. After the Saudi's nationalized all the oil companies, they stopped releasing data. So we don't really know how much oil is left in Saudi, and we don't know what their capacity really is.

The Saudis started shipping sour heavy crude last year in response to the high prices. This freaked everybody out because the realization was made that the Ghawar field, the primary sweet light field in Saudi, had probably hit peak production. Combine that with rapid demand growth in Asia, general demand growth worldwide vs. stagnant production growth, plus possible political problems in Venezuela and Nigeria, and we have a perfect storm for high oil prices.

I work for a DOE lab, so I tend to keep up with the oil markets. It appears the the current marginal production cost is around $42/bl, so we'll never see anything less than $50/bl again. Get used to it.

A few years ago I dug up a plot of oil prices vs unemployment in an attempt to show how the oil market can impact our economy. Note that these data are a few years old, and the price is not adjusted for inflation.




Note that each period of high unemployment was preceded by high oil prices. Think about where we stand today.

But here's the real problem. Our high demand coupled with low stocks has put us into a very delicate position. Here's a chart (also a few years old) showing how our "days cover", that is our stocks divided by usage rate = how many days we can go without imports, has declined to where it was when the oil embargo hit.



So we are in a position of high prices and low stocks with little or no world excess capacity. One major hit on a supplier could potentially bring us to our knees.

Sorry if I ruined your day.

[ronin]

Originally posted by turbo6bar
...

It is not that we choose NOT to buy Chinese goods, it is that we choose to NOT buy period.

...

Call me a pessimist, but I don't think things are looking good for the US economy. I cannot see how this is good for the Chinese economy.

incorrect. the first response in any economic turndown is to first eliminate extraneous spending (such as movies and dinners-out) this is followed (and in many cases actually replaced) by buying products that are more "economical" (read: cheaper DVD players) and only then does not-buying-at-all come in as a last response

you are correct that (if the economy in the U.S. does decline drastically) in the long-term imports will weaken. this would ultimately hurt the Chinese economy, but not anytime soon

the problem facing the Chinese economy is that they, too, need to deal with the rising cost of oil, which is why Jintao has been travelling extensively to foreign nations in order to secure much-needed oil supply deals

[scottmandue]

Didn't the "Arabs" donate more to the N.O. relief than any American corporation?

Why don't we... (yes I said we as in America) build refineries in Mexico?

[ronin]

now why would they do that?