Dow 8500?
 

You think we'll ever see it? I think so. We need another dip to really shake out the crap of the 90's runup.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1135965874.jpg

The P/E ratio of the S&P is just shy of 20. Historical average is around 15.5. It's anyone's guess.

The graph is even more impressive with a linear axis.

Linear;

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1135984060.gif

Don't think so....the Market has been in a sideways trading range for over a year...it more or less keeps bouncing off 10K on the DOW...Building a SUPPORT level.

Some folks are still waiting for the Santa Claus rally.

Just like '65 to '83? So, we'll be building a support level until 2020?

Mid election years have often seen a 20% drop (thus the basis for my 8500 question as mentioned by some nitwit on msnbc).

Here's a fun read. Put on your tinfoil hat for this one...

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=4331&pv=1

Is the Dow that was used back in the thirties really the same as today? I admit my knowledge is weak and my understanding simplistic, but wouldn't you at least have to correct for inflation to get an apples to apples comparison (not on P/E I suppose)?

I thought the Dow was made up of a selection of companies, trade weighted which changed over time....is that true? Also, isn't the increase in global trading cause an increase in the risk factors, which in turn would demand a higher return on investment? I mean, expecting a 10% return when inflation is running at 2.5% would include a risk premium of some sort....

Oh well, hopefully someone who really understands what is going on can enlighten all of us...

Dennis

You bring up an excellent point. you may want to compare it to something like the wilshire 5000 index....

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=%5EDWC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EDJI

i dont claim to understand it at all, but the dow is made up of 30 companies and changes over the years.

Here's a list...

3M Company (MMM)
Alcoa Inc. (AA)
Altria Group, Inc. (MO)
American Express Co. (AXP)
American Int'l. Group (AIG)
Boeing Co. (BA)
Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Coca-Cola Co. (KO)
DuPont (E.I.) deNemours (DD)
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
General Electric Co. (GE)
General Motors (GM)
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)
Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Honeywell Int'l. Inc. (HON)
Intel Corp. (INTC)
International Bus. Mach. (IBM)
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
McDonalds Corp. (MCD)
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
SBC Communications, Inc. (SBC)
United Technologies Corp. (UTX)
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

The nasdq and s&p are both up for 2005 i think.. GM really weighed on the dow this year

aren't there a number of companies that are both Dow and nasdaq and ? Kinda skews things a bit...

No one really understands. If they did, do you think they would tell us? I don't personally think we'll see 8500 any time in the near future, but I am perfectly happy to speculate.

Interesting....I've always taken the "value investing" sort of approach, look for good companies with real assets, revenue and profits who serve a real need...then buy 'em and hold 'em for a while, like years.

I have noticed that there are many times where my investment portfolio goes up while the Dow goes down and vice versa....but then again, if one would have just bought the Dow companies back in 1950, the return would have been pretty good...

Dennis

I don't think we'll see 8500.

I think it's stabalized where it is. 6 years ago it was near where it is now. I'm banking on it climbing slowly for the next few years.