$100/brl for Crude - it is coming!

[M.D. Holloway]

We were notified about 2 months ago from three different refineries in the states that crude was gonna jump to $70/brl in a month then in about 4-5 months after that it was gonna hit $100/brl and stabilize there - but it will most likely not come down unless some covert behind the scenes stuff happens.

Their prediction was correct so far. To make matters worse, most all the refineries have put all the blenders and independents on allocation and that also includes petrochemical feedstock (plastics, glue, paint, processing solvents, raw materials for like everything!) as well as the pharmaceuticals and cosmetic industries. No sector is safe - none. Even guys like us who are close to $1B in annual sales have no stroke. Its serious!

The overall far reaching effect is actually very staggering and all the while ExxMo et al are banking serious chink. Could it be the master plan to reduce greenhouse gases is to make using the stuff cost prohibitive? No way are they that savvy! Are they?

[Neilk]

Great and my girlfriend just got an SUV.

[Jims5543]

I told the wife last night I am cashing in all our stock options and investing them in Oil. Especially after reading another pelican did this 2 years ago and has made lots of money from it.

[1967 R50/2]

Lube-

Interesting. I invest in a few oil stocks, and even with my meager knowledge I could have predicted that oil would hit $70 at some point. Summer is the big season...the most driving...heavy power demand due to A/C.yadda, yadda, yadda. It wasn't going to take a political crisis to get it over $70.

$100??? Maybe, but it is a 50% price increase which Pareto efficiency says would need a 50% increase in demand. Even with China and India putting demand on oil, I am doubtful it will be a 50% increase any time soon.

That said, the other factor is supply. If Iran shuts off exports (or Venezuela or Nigeria) then yes, I could see $100 based on sheer hysteria.

[M.D. Holloway]

It sucks that most of the cheap crude is found in the worlds most politically unstable places. In July I will be spending some time up in the Tar Sands as well as the Diamond mines in the Artic Circle. More crude in that mud than anywhere else. It is now price competitive. Should be rather interesting.

[sammyg2]

Prsident Bush wanted to allow drilling off the Mexifornia coastline so we could have more crude oil and keep the price down, the tree huggers said no way.

President Bush wanted to allow drilling in remote areas of Alaska so we could have more crude oil and keep the prices down, the tree huggers said no way.
Must be Bush's fault.

PS, Jim, you might want to check out VLO. Up $1.80 today to $67 and change and up about 15% in the last month, I think it will hit $75 before August.

[M.D. Holloway]

Valero is a great bet! They build refineries that cost a little more to run but they can take crude from many different sources which is not the case for ExxMo or Chevron. They are less influenced by the geo-political mess compared to the others. Also - with the new management of the Diamond Shamrock quickie marts they will be a slightly stabilized like ExxMo.

I would give it a LubeMaster Buy Now (aka LBN)

[RoninLB]

tree huggers have expanded to all of both Rep & Dem congress.

[speeder]

It is pretty amazing the way that everything that the Bush monkey does seems to tighten the supply of/or raise the price of oil..........

As opposed to the Iraq invasion as I was, at least I thought that it would be a relatively fast ass-kicking by our military and then some serious oil supplies would be unleashed and possibly the U.S. would get first dibs on any increases. In other words, it was the wrong course of action but at least some back-handed good would come from it in the form of oil supplies. Riiight.....

And just when things could not get more unstable, he is talking about military action against Iran. Message to President Schit-for-brains: if you're going to nuke them, just ******* do it, alright? Make it a surprise party. No need to rattle your cage just to see how high you can make a barrel of oil go, your buddies in the oil business seriously don't know what to do w/ all of the $$ that you are making them already. I mean, fun is fun but let's not laugh ourselves to death as the old saying goes.

[M.D. Holloway]

soon we will be cutting down those trees to heat our homes - maybe we should just burn the treehuggers instead?

[dd74]

On NPR a professor down in Houston said, simply, that when oil hits $100/brl, the U.S. economy will undoubtedly crash.

Why?

Not just cars, but planes will be affected. Airline tickets will increase, no one will travel, hotels and tourist destinations will be affected, and people who work there will lose their employment.

And that's just the tourism industry.

Otherwise, everything's hunkie-dorrie.

[sammyg2]

Yuppers, valero bet the farm on upgrades to allow processing discounted crudes (heavy sour) so they actually pay quite a bit less than some others for the feedstocks.

If you take the oil drilling part of the company out of the equation, valero is bigger than XOM in refining and marketing in north America, with 18 refineries they refine and sell more fuel than any other company in north America.
Just 15 years ago they only had one refinery.

[M.D. Holloway]

Originally posted by speeder
...I thought that it would be a relatively fast ass-kicking by our military and then some serious oil supplies would be unleashed ...

Denis - it is not s question of supply. There is plenty-o-crude. Really! The refineries were setback by the canes and also by a few refinery fires but the middlebeast fiasco is only a screen.

These stackhouses are playing a eco game and nobody is challenging them mostly because those with the chops to know the truth are making out like bandits and those who challenge are quickly dismissed.

Mark my words, if we are alive to see it, this will go down in the history of man as the biggest case of fraud ever. The thing is, there is too much at stake and it really does influenece the world economy.

[dd74]

I thought Valero was cheap Mexican gas. Si?

[sammyg2]

Denis, so you are saying that it would be better for President Bush to launch nuclear weapons against Iran and start WWIII that it would be for him to try to get Iran to back off with diplomacy and diplomatic pressure?
Uh....... huh.

[M.D. Holloway]

Originally posted by dd74
I thought Valero was cheap Mexican gas. Si?

Taco-Belle - iay ay ay!

[sammyg2]

Last time I checked all Valero refineries are in the continental US except for one in Canada and one in Aruba.
No ties to Mexico that I know of except the name "Valero" is taken from the mexican name for the Alamo.
Valero's headquarters is in san Antonio, Baja Oklahoma

[dd74]

Well, America should have seen this coming back in the early 70s.
Between the Middle East conflicts and environmental restrictions, it's about time America deal with $100/brl oil prices. Hell, my bicycle tires have 140 psi in them right now - I can outsprint many cars, signal to signal.

All-in-all, we've had it good enough long enough. Now, it's time to pay the Mullah, Shah, Sheik or whomever.

[FrayAdjacent911]

More nuke power and electric cars. I'd dig it.

[speeder]

Originally posted by sammyg2
Denis, so you are saying that it would be better for President Bush to launch nuclear weapons against Iran and start WWIII that it would be for him to try to get Iran to back off with diplomacy and diplomatic pressure?
Uh....... huh.

No, what I am saying is that diplomacy and diplomatic pressure, (something that the Bush monkey truly does not believe in), never raised the price of one drop of oil. Intentionally leaking stories of a planned military action makes oil go through the roof. Maybe that is what neocons mistakenly refer to as diplomacy, I don't know anymore. They live in an alternate universe, where every action seems to enrich big oil and ass-rape the consumer.

Diplomacy is done behind the scenes, and is definitely the preferred course of action, but IF he is going to bomb them, make it a surprise. No need to rush the $100 a barrel oil. Oh wait.......