I THINK I SAID, that this whole Stock Market decline is based up on the Materials/Oil bubble deflating, and the money transitioning into Consumer staples. I will now say it will probably start back to TECH probably late in the year or early next. Every dog has its day, and gets to be an AKC champ.

You Boyz are like surfers riding the wave, but not really understanding the the underlying currents. Or like the Plunge Bettors at the Sports Book, I put my money down on this cause so and so said this...or all the indications say this or that or whatever. we'll get back to you. I guess the best word for you boyz is AMATEURS. Hither and Dither and all about...

BET U BOYZ have your real money in Mutual Funds... Mother won't let you play with the retirment dinero...huh?

90% cash position here, king. I cashed out my mutual funds in Sept 05. I am waiting for better days in real estate and stock market. I am not convinced the central banks can engineer a soft landing while reducing the rate at which money is injected.

Mostly cash, still a few funds and stocks, plus short.

Lookit I am no fking "genius" when it come to investing money in the Stock Market. I managed my own Portfolio for a number of years, I was mostly in Pfd Stocks and Corp Bonds. But I realized that I needed professional help if I wanted to move into the Stock Market...I didn't know anything really except to buy Intel.

So an "astute" old invester, who had been around for 50 years introduced me to, The smartest and most honest Broker he had ever met." I've been with her for about 10 years now.

Do you think Dec 06 gives you enough time?

It primarily gives room for a hombuilder bounce and then room to fall further. By Dec 06, we'll have another earnings cycle and reports of further slowing. Since there are no long-term options available for XHB, I am forced to buy nothing over 2 quarters out. Buy on bounce. Sell on decline. Recycle into the next quarter's option.

Basically, my worst enemy is an index that goes sideways (happen in an environment of falling sales and earnings?), or central banks that choose to hyperinflate. I acknowledge the risk of sideways movement. The risk of hyperinflation is also there, but if that scenario occurs, I've got bigger problems than $10k worth of put options.

No long term options for XHB, but have you considered the long term options for individuals builders, Lennar, etc.? Those can go out quite a while.

I think the analysis is correct, but you've identified my main concern with XHB puts - sideways for the next 6 months.

Yep, I will have to consider LEAPs from the individual homebuilders. It will take some time to review the option prices. XHB option prices are quite reasonable, but bid-ask spreads are not so great.

Here's the article I referenced earlier:
Homebuilders Shares Fall on Bearish Comments by Bank of America Analyst

And good news for homebuilders shorts:

There is still interest in the homebuilders. As earnings fall, cancellations increase, and inventories climb, the picture will become worse, and those bullish analysts will fall. In other words, when those buyers sell, the sector will be hurt even further. There is no reason homebuilders can't fall to pre-2001-2 levels. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or two major homebuilders goes bankrupt.

As if that hasn't happened before. Is there really some body left in the Home Builders Sector? Man have I got some CA RE to sell them....right down in SJC....just 1.5 to get in.

U want something REAL to buy, instead of playing these risky little games...BUY FORD at $6.50 a share...its completely washed out, collect your dividend and take it to $10 an be gone.

Or buy Eastman Kodak....Bill Miller of Legg Mason has a 9% stake in the company. Bill has had 15 consecutive years of showing profits...in the same league as Peter Lynch and Warren of Omaha....

And YES I am betting that the Market shows a strong performance between now and years end. And how do I know because Mother says so, thats why. 12000/12,200 on the DOW...

Interesting long plays. Worth a look, for sure. My brother is pushing INTC. If one is willing to play this long-term, I don't think you could go wrong with Intel.

INTC & MSFT are no longer growth plays, but have become mature cos...

INTC is still considered to be a PC co, and thats a mature field.

Does ANYONE think FORD will disappear from the American HGWY, somebody would buy them. FORD has been tarred with the same brush that GM has.

I remember quiet a few Homebuilders bit the dust back in 1980, the field just wasn't as consolidated then as it is now with National Homebuilders.

I still worry about Kodak, having spent much of my life in Roachester and watching the Great Yellow Mother miss boat after boat after boat when it came to new/emerging technology. Company is a shadow of itself. Even knocking down buildings in Kodak Park to reduce City property taxes.

I'm not sure whether to trust the newsletter gurus, yet. Most fail to predict market downturns.

Nevertheless,
Irrational Exuberance

If I keep on saying the Market is going to go up, sooner or later I'm gona be right.

I'm gonna lose my shirt with or without you, tabs. No peeking in my window, perv.

ugly, ugly. XHB put options continue to rock.

I remember when the Dow was predicted by one author to reach 3000, and most of the industry thought he was insane.