RE shakeout - when the going gets tough...
 

I need to point out that I hold a real estate license in Connecticut. I don't actively practice but have my license to occasionally support my wife's activities. She is a broker and has been involved in Real Estate for quite a while.

Now, some facts about Real Estate licenses in our state:

First, all Real Estate licenses expire annually on the same date for everyone. That day is today, May 31.

There are two things that license holders must do to be able to renew their licenses. These include paying the $225 annual fee and completing 12 hours of continuing education every two years. I point this out to show that the requirements are not onerous.

As of today, there are 18,083 individuals that hold a RE sales license in Connecticut.

We received a notification last night from the Connecticut Association of Realtors (CAR). As of yesterday, the agency in our state that administers licenses for RE (Department of Consumer Protection) had received only 8,100 license renewals. That is roughly only 45% of the total population. Now, I know that some people procrastinate and these won’t be the final numbers, but this is a significant drop off.

I’ve drawn my own conclusions regarding this. However, I’ll hold back on sharing them for the time being.

Discuss.

Here is my question: How many have NORMALLY renewed by this time?

It may be that this is the status quo and that stragglers continue to send in their renewals weeks later. I am sure CAR would not refuse them...especially if they are charging a late fee.

Extend this trend to mortgage companies, title companies, RE attorneys, inspectors, home builders, material suppliers, etc, and then we will know the impact of a RE boom on the economy.

To me, it looks like everyone and their brother was getting into RE during the boom, just like everyone was getting into IT back in the 90's.

Case in point: this betty gets hired as a SysAdmin in the late 90's at my workplace who couldn't find her a$$ in the dark with both hands and a seven man search party. She was married to a guy who also worked there. When they started thinning the IT ranks, she jumped ship and started pimping RE, and he joined her soon after. Recently, he bailed out of RE and came back to IT. I don't know what her next move will be; maybe selling used cars will come back into fashion.

There may be a large number that will come in today. I will know the results about this time next month when the updated roster is posted.

In regard to stragglers, there is no grace period. If you don't have your CE requirements completed and your renewal in today, you lose your license. If that happens, you need to go through the 80 hour licensing course all over again.

BTW, licensing is done by the Department of Consumer Protection, not CAR.

Interesting scenario -

What happens to those with active listings? Are they therefore invalid?

I'd be hitting hard for listings NOW..

rjp

The individual agents don't own the listings, the broker that they work for owns the listings.

Right now, in this area, the only way that you want a listing is if you have a reasonable seller. We have enough inventory to last a year at the current rate of transactions. Another listing that is not priced according to current market will just languish with the rest of them.

More people that just jumped on the bandwagon hoping to make that million bucks a year for working 10 hours a month. Got news for those people - IT DOESN'T WORK!!!

I've said it before and I'll say it again - if you're responding to observed market behavior, you're already too late. You need to act decisively BEFORE a market trend becomes established to really take advantage of it. Is this risky? Sure. Expecting to ride on the coattails of a market and make real money - big money is a surefire way to keep onesself frustrated and poor.

Jeff, with all due respect, you are flat-out wrong. Wayne is correct: you must be nimble.

Yes, on a nationwide basis, housing is currently in a downward trend. But there are *always* LOCAL markets that are hot. You can get in, and get out fast without being greedy, and still make pretty good money. One just has to get out there and study the local numbers and put their ball$ on the line.

And Wayne, just to set the record straight, I am NOT a flipper. Its never been my intention to flip houses. To be honest, I don't have that kind of risk tolerance at my age. My long-term purchases made an embarassing amount of money in Phoenix and I made a decision to sell. Since then, I've rolled it all (well, most of it) into the Albuquerque market, and I'm there for the long haul. And by the way, Albuquerque is still hot, *right now*. Anyone can buy in, hold for a few months and make good money.

And for those that say flippers make obscene money working 10 hours a week: wrong again. I can't begin to tell you what I've put up with in Phoenix. Stress, travel, vandalism, theft, ect. I can go on and on. Its been a roller coaster ride. As the saying goes, there's no free ride.

Would like to add that a flipper friend of mine here in OC is doing quite well. Just bought himself a new F430 and paid WAY over MSRP for it (that's the reality of the 430 market). Smart people always figure out a way to make it work.

One of my marketing clients of the past two years is a Realtor Association (membership tripled during the time they were my client).

Renewal timing was approximately 40% before the deadline and another 40% after the deadline and before penalties kicked in. The final 20% waited as much as 3-7 months until the national and state association rates dropped (they were pro-rated) and then paid dues. This was during a real estate boomtime.

Hehe, glad you approve, Wayne :)

So what your saying is that all these RE guys are going to go back to their day jobs of being Hairdressers and Bartenders.

Its the lure of easy money in large amounts.. that draw people like b

No, more like Housewives.

rjp

I promised that I would come back when I had some real numbers. Well, it looks like the real estate salespeople in this area are procrastinators.

Based upon the new roster of licensed individuals, there are now !5,530 people. When you compare this to the previous number of 18,083, that is a reduction of about 15%.

I tried to buy a piece of land a couple years back from an angent who had been a hairdresser. I had my agent deal with him for the most part, but eventually did meet him, and I have to say, the stereotype couldn't have been more complete if he'd been driving a pink Miata.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

As long as you are ahead of the curve - telecom, dot-com, real estate, whatever - you can be talentless and make money.

The trick is staying ahead of the curve and have a skill like bartending to fall back on in-between..:D