Depreciation...

[dd74]

How does it work in lieu of the cost of new Porsches; say a Carrera 4S for example. How much would it be on the used market in about 10 yrs. from now.

[Zeke]

Wow, a Carrear 4$. I love them myself. Edmunds has a good depreciation tracker, IIRC. I don't think too many people know all that much on the market of high end sports cars AFA being able to chart the future. There are so many variables and not that many cars as base. It's a little shoot from the hip, IMHO.

Two sources much better than I would be the Porshce Market Letter (I think he will talk to you one on one and is a member of the Early S registry, if not here) and Keith Martin's Sports CAr Market. I'd look for articles in back issues about Porsche.

Just as a WAG, I'm gonna say the real expensive 911's are gonna loose 10%/yr after an initial 20% hit and falling off to 5%, in VERY general terms. Any could vary. Seems like GT2 and 3's hold up better than that, maybe Turbos as well.

I can tell you that Boxsters are on the other end and I suspect Cayenne's, too. If you chart each and every model, you should get a clearer picture. It's a lot of work.

Or, you can ask here.

[kaisen]

When a 2007 Porsche 997 C4S is ten years old it should be worth about one third of its original MSRP - $100,000 now ~~ $35,000 in 10 years.

There are so many things that swing that pendulum. The 997 is probably going to age better than the 996 and 964, not as well as the 'real' 911 or the 993. But what will a new 2017 911 be like? If it is significantly better then the old ones may not be as appealing. If they get (more) fat, bloated, and complex due to regulations and fashion, then maybe they will do better.

In hindsight, the biggest single factor has been inflation and the currency fluctuations. German cars were, in several instances, more expensive in 1992 than they were in 2002. If we go through a long inflationary period, as some of us fear, then depreciation will be curbed because the replacement cost will be high.

E

[dd74]

Thanks for the advice, Milt (or is it Zeke?). I'm just wondering since mid-90s 996s are fairly cheap these days, and while nice, I believe the 997s are much better built, faster and handle better.

kaisen - as to inflation - yes, that can play a role, but I'm not sure how large a role in the used car market. FWIW, the dollar is forecast to be much weaker in the next fiscal year, and possibly years after, due to trade deficit. Democrats predict hard times will be coming, though things are stable now. But who knows.

I do like the 997. But I'm also becoming fond of the Cayman S. What might mitigate the price of both ten years from now, are, I believe:

1) High production numbers.
2) Shared parts with VW/Audi - though I'm not sure average consumers would care - that's more of a Porsche fan's thing.
3) Not as exclusive because of high production numbers.

All-in-all, I think those who already have an air-cooled Porsche, are the ones who will see a vast increase in value as the watercooled Porsches are churned out.

Any thoughts?

[tcar]

Originally posted by kaisen
When a 2007 Porsche 997 C4S is ten years old it should be worth about one third of its original MSRP - $100,000 now ~~ $35,000 in 10 years.
E

Plug in inflation, and that could be $25k +/- in 2007 dollars.

[dd74]

Originally posted by tcar
Plug in inflation, and that could be $25k +/- in 2007 dollars.

$25K +/- in 2007 dollars, but in the year 2017, right?

[nostatic]

Originally posted by dd74
I'm just wondering since mid-90s 996s are fairly cheap these days

Any thoughts?

My thought is that I have never seen a mid-90's 996, as they didn't hit the market until the '99 MY

[Dottore]

In this town there seems to be a disproportionately large market for very lightly used Porsches (and other high end cars) with less than 10,000 kilometers (6,000 miles) on the clock.

The dealer tells me that this is because of "impulse buys". Some guy buys a new Porsche and then realizes he cannot afford it, or the wife gives him hell or his buddies with Corvettes disown him etc.

These cars, often the most recent model year, can be had here for a 15% - 20% discount - which is quite amazing value. I looked at 997S with 6,000km (undamaged) for 20% off sticker last week. Great value.

And I don't know what it is like elsewhere - but 996's are being given away here. They are definately the dog of the 911 vintages. Not a good investment. To me they have always looked ridiculous.

During a recent interview with Wendelin Wiedeking in the German press he indicated that future iterations of the 911 would again become leaner and more sporting. The grand-touring role in the line-up would be assumed by the four-door model that is in the works. This is good news for most - but bad news for 996 owners.

[kaisen]

High production numbers haven't seemed to have a large effect, because whether 911 production is 8,000 or 40,000 it is still a drop in the bucket compared to 600,000 Camrys or 1.4 million F-series. Demand will play a larger role than supply.

Shared parts w/ VW/Audi? During the mid seventies to late eighties there was plenty, and those vehicles values are still doing relatively well. The 944 models seem to be going UP in value, and you couldn't get any more VW/Audi than a 944.

E

[nostatic]

Originally posted by kaisen
The 944 models seem to be going UP in value, and you couldn't get any more VW/Audi than a 944.

E

from zero, anything is up

[kaisen]

Originally posted by nostatic
from zero, anything is up

True. I see nice 914s for more than some nice 944s, but the 928 was the huge dollar loser. The 911 is an icon, and holds its value because it is the one and only.

E

[dd74]

Originally posted by nostatic
My thought is that I have never seen a mid-90's 996, as they didn't hit the market until the '99 MY

D'oh! Yes, you're correct. But that's good as prices have fallen this far in...what...seven to eight years.

[dd74]

Originally posted by kaisen
The 911 is an icon, and holds its value because it is the one and only.

E

That's why I think the 911 values should, very soon, stop falling, stabilize for a bit, then in two years' time, begin to rise.

Bruce Anderson states that prices are rising for '74s, but the '74 is kinda freaky in it's the first impact bumper year car, had the only reasonably healthy 2.7, the good exhaust, the good r/p, and is still fairly fast by today's standards.

[id10t]

Re: the 944/924 (and early 911 and 912) values...

In the late 70s/early 80s, 356s were dirt cheap. Speedsters even. Heck, go back to the early 70s and I've got classified ads from R&T and other mags that list 550s sans-engine for a mere $2000, speedsters for $1k, etc. Total basket case barn find speedster just got bought by someone on 356talk for $20k, and that was a *GREAT* deal. Driver speedsters (and cabs/roadsters) are "up there" in value too, considering what they were worth not too long ago...

Also dont' forget the old guys who finally have their mortgage paid off, kids out of college, etc. and can finally afford the "dream car" from when they were a senior in high school. Witness american iron prices at auctions like BJ, etc. (although those are at the other extreme end...)

Originally posted by dd74
How does it work in lieu of the cost of new Porsches; say a Carrera 4S for example. How much would it be on the used market in about 10 yrs. from now.

The '99 996 goes for $27 - 35K right now. 2000 goes $30 - $38K. Find MSRP on those and you should get a good idea.

[coldstart]

$24,500 OBO for a 1999 996 base coupe (gold color, won't stay in 6th gear, otherwise great condition claimed).

1999 996 for sale $26,500

I think they made too many 996s. I can tell you for sure that I wouldn't want to own a 10 year old 996 cause as these cars age the complex electricals are going to be hell to work on. The best thing about Carreras, SCs, middies and early P-cars is that they are simple cars and guys can work on them without a computer scanner. 996 parts don't get fixed-- they get replaced which gets really really expensive.

[David]

Originally posted by kaisen
True. I see nice 914s for more than some nice 944s, but the 928 was the huge dollar loser. The 911 is an icon, and holds its value because it is the one and only.

E

I remember walking around a Porsche dealership in 1991 and seeing the window sticker of a new 928 at over $100K. Wow!

[dd74]

Originally posted by coldstart
$24,500 OBO for a 1999 996 base coupe (gold color, won't stay in 6th gear, otherwise great condition claimed).

1999 996 for sale $26,500

I think they made too many 996s. I can tell you for sure that I wouldn't want to own a 10 year old 996 cause as these cars age the complex electricals are going to be hell to work on. The best thing about Carreras, SCs, middies and early P-cars is that they are simple cars and guys can work on them without a computer scanner. 996 parts don't get fixed-- they get replaced which gets really really expensive.

Good point. I honestly didn't even think of the electronics. But heck, all I would do if I bought one is lighten it up and drop a 3.2 or 3.6 in it.

Originally posted by coldstart

I think they made too many 996s. I can tell you for sure that I wouldn't want to own a 10 year old 996 cause as these cars age the complex electricals are going to be hell to work on. The best thing about Carreras, SCs, middies and early P-cars is that they are simple cars and guys can work on them without a computer scanner. 996 parts don't get fixed-- they get replaced which gets really really expensive.

Hogwash.

[coldstart]

Originally posted by Mark Wilson
Hogwash.

And why is it hogwash? A friend of a friend has a 2000 996 that has serious electrical issues. Even the power windows have problems. While I know little about 996s in particular, modern cars will not age well. My mothers Volvo S80 had crazy electrical problems (besides others) that made the car a nightmare to own/drive. When entire cars are controlled via multiple computers, they don't age well.