Bye-Bye Gold...
 

Well, I'd say Gold is taking quite a beating today (as are most commodities).

Ugghhh. The CRB index took a nasty dip last week. I think prices are coming down from here.


I'm not ready to concede to $50 oil yet though - hahhaaa.

Re: Bye-Bye Gold...
 

I hope you're right. I'm out of the metals stocks (mining companies) I was in, but am hoping to buy back at lower prices. I still expect currencies to take a beating and large portions of the investment community to seek the safety of hard assets -- like gold -- in the coming years.

If you're into currencies, I'd say about the only safe bet right now is that the dollar will keep heading into the toilet for the foreseeable future versus the Euro. . .

If it got down to $50, OPEC would curtail production. They are getting used to a price over $60.

It might go even lower? I'm not sure how it all works out, but I read in the paper that Chevron (I think?) found a HUGE oil supply in the Gulf, enough to double the current US reserves. They say it will take about 5-6 years to fully realize it and for consumers to realize it at the pump.

Any idea on what this will do to the price of a barrel?

IMO, it would lower the price of crude, but due to the "not in my backyard" sentiment, we won't be able to refine it. There isn't enough capacity as it is, and there aren't more refineries being built here in the U.S. Therefore, it wouldn't translate too much into lower gas/heating oil prices.

Natural gas futures recently hit a 2 year low...

CRB has been heading down for several weeks now. I don't know if this is just speculation unwinding, or the emergence/expectation of deflation.

We are heading into interesting times. Once again, my crystal ball is on the fritz.

As I recall, the estimates for the newly announced field in the Gulf of Mexico were somewhere between a low of 3 billion barrels and a high of 15 billion.

Even with the highest estimate, that represents just 6 months of current global oil demand.

We need to find these huge fields every month!

Ouch!!!! $566 gold.

Someone is losing some SERIOUS money...

The price of oil (and gasoline) is seasonal. It almost always drops in the winter and goes back up in the spring.
It may hit $50 this winter but OPEC will try to prevent that. Next spring it will be back up close to $65 or more.

But they are still hawking gold as an "inflation hedge" with those Monex ads (the ones with the woman with the questionable "English?" accent.....)

I bought some GG and GSS Call options yesterday -- they were down this morning, but recovered nicely in the afternoon.

Bought GSS shares in the Roth IRA (can't trade options there) at a price lower than some of the insiders bought last week.

I'll probably take any quick profits I see in the options, but will plan on holding GSS longer term.

Gold could shake out some more, but nothing has changed with the world's fiat currencies. There are signs the whole system will be reaching a breaking point soon. Consider (You'll need a subscription to the WSJ to get this article): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115915177853972817.html

The article is titled "U.S. Foreign Debt Shows Its Teeth As Rates Climb, Net Payments Remain Small But Pose Long-Term Threat To Nation's Living Standards." It's in the Sept. 25 paper.

If anyone is really interested in reading it and does not have a WSJ subscription, I can email you a link that you'll be able to access for 7 days. (First come, first serve; I'll only do that for the first 2-3 requests.)

INNCREASED MARGIN RATES, INCREASED MARGIN RATES, INCREASED MARGIN RATES, INCREASED MARGIN RATES...has set up the unwinding of commodities...

Monex - "Oh really, well traditonally gold is a hedge against inflation."

Goldline - "But there's a privacy component to our RARE coins."

And so on...too funny.

tabs - I think there might be some other reasons too.