How slow is the economy? I'll tell you....

[Zeke]

As of this date, I've had the oportunity to propose 16 estimates for window change outs since Jan 1, '06. That's half of the year before which was half of '04 (over 50 ests). Same advertising in effect. Fifty percent of my work is referral anyway, so by all rights I didn't need to advertise at all. (That's an average of one call for every 6 ads, or about $250 worth in the weeklys.) Oh, and I don't get every job. 8 out of 10, usually.

I'm now welding on Porsches to pay bills. But, if you guys go down the tube like I am, that won't work either. So, how bad is it, guys?

Edit: I just checked my folder, it was 72 ests in '04. No wonder I could afford the Ragamuffin.

[lendaddy]

Originally posted by milt

I'm now welding on Porsches to pay bills. [/i]

you're still paying your bills? You're doing better than us in Michigan. I wish I was kidding.

We have a few irons in the fire, but it's really been wholesale slaughter on small/mid industrial here(with some VERY bright spots strangely enough).

[sewell94]

Its slowing down ALOT here in fl, i guess were not the only ones

[Aurel]

So, did Bush taxcuts work or not after all ???

Aurel

[lendaddy]

Originally posted by Aurel
So, did Bush taxcuts work or not after all ???

Aurel

I guess not, the key to bolstering business is to tax the sheet outta the spending public

[cowtown]

Hmmm. A single contractor's window sales in Long Beach are down, so the economy has tanked. No offense intended, Milt, but something's not connecting for me here.

[TyFenn]

Aurel - it depends on who you ask - obviously.

My personal opinion, starting early next year - slowing...

[lendaddy]

Some industries are doing quite well. My biggest customer is in pneumatic trucking components and they are doubling every 18 months or so. I have hitched my little red wagon.

[Dantilla]

I have a company that swaps out windows renting warehouse space from me. They're swamped, and wanting more space. We're going to move a wall or two to accomodate them.

I'm going to have less room for parts cars.

[Zeke]

Hmmm. A single contractor's window sales in Long Beach are down, so the economy has tanked. No offense intended, Milt, but something's not connecting for me here.

Cute, dude. Let me put things in perspective for you big picture thinkers. Milgard Manufacturing (windows) is the largest by far in all of the Western states. Their orders were down 20% BEFORE the housing slowdown. They are currently keeping the latest figures close to the vest. Custom windows went from out 2 weeks down to 7 working days just in this last 6 mo period.

Milgard is one division of Masco, a huge conglomerate. Most of the divisions focus on home improvement sectors. Even by 2004, some divisions weren’t meeting expectations. The figures for 06 aren't out where I can see them. I'll let one of our financial guys sniff this one out.

All I can tell you is that the economy can be gauged every time by the shoe salesperson. When people stop spending, it reflects right away in the shoe dept. You can always wear shoes longer, but you won't take a cold shower. Hence, the plumber has work, the shoe guy none. Especially if the water heater is out.

I'm closer to the shoe guy than the plumber by way of having my income come from homeowners discretionary income. When that slows, it snow balls beyond and we're hard into that phase.

Now, Mr. Cow, let us hear your analysis. I did my best to back up my statement that the economy is slow. If you happen to be educated in these matters, all the better, because you can make an informative statement rather than dismiss a grassroots approach. If not, put a sock in it.

I happen to believe in the Bob Dylan adage," You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

[lendaddy]

Actually, Masco is/was a huge automotive conglomorate. So if their hurting it's a good bet that's one reason.

Correction: Different Masco (Mascotech)

[cowtown]

Originally posted by milt
Cute, dude. Let me put things in perspective for you big picture thinkers. Milgard Manufacturing (windows) is the largest by far in all of the Western states. Their orders were down 20% BEFORE the housing slowdown. They are currently keeping the latest figures close to the vest. Custom windows went from out 2 weeks down to 7 working days just in this last 6 mo period.

Milgard is one division of Masco, a huge conglomerate. Most of the divisions focus on home improvement sectors. Even by 2004, some divisions weren’t meeting expectations. The figures for 06 aren't out where I can see them. I'll let one of our financial guys sniff this one out.

All I can tell you is that the economy can be gauged every time by the shoe salesperson. When people stop spending, it reflects right away in the shoe dept. You can always wear shoes longer, but you won't take a cold shower. Hence, the plumber has work, the shoe guy none. Especially if the water heater is out.

I'm closer to the shoe guy than the plumber by way of having my income come from homeowners discretionary income. When that slows, it snow balls beyond and we're hard into that phase.

Now, Mr. Cow, let us hear your analysis. I did my best to back up my statement that the economy is slow. If you happen to be educated in these matters, all the better, because you can make an informative statement rather than dismiss a grassroots approach. If not, put a sock in it.

I happen to believe in the Bob Dylan adage," You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

As I said originally, no offense was intended, and you seem to have made up your mind. You also seem to be somewhat grouchy and I won't bother trying to pull you out of your perceived state.

I hold the more traditional view that macro indicators show the true state of the economy. Not a single data point in SoCal. The "grassroots" perspective, as you put it, is not a valid statistical way of judging the economy. Sorry. Saying the shoe saleman sees the whole economy is like saying one troop deployed to Germany sees the whole state of the war in the middle east. You see what you see, but you're sure not seeing everything.

Take a look at some of the national indicators.

Unemployment is at 4.2%.

College-educated workers have a 2% unemployment level!

Record high Dow.

High consumer spending.

Low interest rates. High availablilty of capital.

Sorry the window thing isn't working out for you.

[HardDrive]

Michigan....its ugly. I grew up in Detroit/Ann Arbor. Dads retired, so he is fine. But the state is just getting so many kicks to the belly.

But lendaddy is right, there are a few bright spots. That google tech center in Ann Arbor won't hurt.

[cool_chick]

Originally posted by cowtown
The "grassroots" perspective, as you put it, is not a valid statistical way of judging the economy. Sorry. Saying the shoe saleman sees the whole economy is like saying one troop deployed to Germany sees the whole state of the war in the middle east. You see what you see, but you're sure not seeing everything.

The theory is this......if most are not doing as well, they prioritize what you spend on. If most are doing well, they spend more on stuff they don't necessarily need. Hence, less necessary markets get more affected than more necessary markets. It wouldn't be just shoes.

[hytem]

If it weren't for "made in China" and cheap oil (relatively), we would be dealing with a post-Vietnam situation with that big deficit. That means inflation. But it probably won't happen unless there is a sustained jump in oil prices. Oil is the big Kahuna--that's where inflation will come from. Interest rates don't mean a thing--except raising them will kill the economy and the stock market--as Greenspan did the summer before the 2000 elections (wonder why).

Those tax cuts meant nothing to the middle class--because they were more than offset by 1% CDs, which killed interest income. If you make a few mil a year or more, like most baseball players, then you love Bush.

[cowtown]

Sure, discretionary income and luxury goods can be used on a macro level to gauge the economy in part.

I wasn't arguing the economy is great, bad, or middling in my responses to Milt. I took issue with his use of one person's situation to gauge "the economy". It's just not valid economics.

[lendaddy]

Originally posted by hytem
If it weren't for "made in China" and cheap oil (relatively), we would be dealing with a post-Vietnam situation with that big deficit. That means inflation. But it probably won't happen unless there is a sustained jump in oil prices. Oil is the big Kahuna--that's where inflation will come from. Interest rates don't mean a thing--except raising them will kill the economy and the stock market--as Greenspan did the summer before the 2000 elections (wonder why).

Those tax cuts meant nothing to the middle class--because they were more than offset by 1% CDs, which killed interest income. If you make a few mil a year or more, like most baseball players, then you love Bush.

The middle class does not live off their investments, get real. The tax cuts helped me a ton and I am NOT rich. In fact I paid virtually zero fed tax this year. The tax cuts helped us middle income guys a ton. The fact that others were also helped does not upset me. In fact I have a fair amount of guilt over my low rate.

[Mike Feinstein]

Originally posted by cowtown

Unemployment is at 4.2%.

College-educated workers have a 2% unemployment level!

Record high Dow.

High consumer spending.

Low interest rates. High availablilty of capital.

Sorry the window thing isn't working out for you.

That says it all. There are always pockets of turbulence, but in general, the economy is rockin. Especially in consideration of all the turbulence in the mid-east, etc. Dow at 12,000 and everyone who wants a job, has one. I'm struggling to find the doom and gloom in that!

[cool_chick]

Originally posted by cowtown
]Sure, discretionary income and luxury goods can be used on a macro level to gauge the economy in part.

That's what he was talking about.

I wasn't arguing the economy is great, bad, or middling in my responses to Milt. I took issue with his use of one person's situation to gauge "the economy". It's just not valid economics.

I believe he is using himself as an example because I think he believes the way he does because he's in an industry that isn't a "necessary".

I personally gauge unemployment by how many idiots apply for jobs. Not many idiots, unemployment is high....more idiots, unemployment is low. Initially had that verbalized to me by the Director of HR.

As you get older, and you can look back at trends throughout your career, you can see the patterns. IMO, there's something to this.....

[Don Plumley]

Originally posted by milt
Now, Mr. Cow, <...>

I got quite a chuckle out of that...