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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Columbus, OH
Posts: 18,162
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Tempted by, and worried by overseas funds.
I have around 20% directly in overseas funds. About 20% in Berkshire Hathaway B, so thats even more anti-dollar hedging.
Long and the short it, I am considering going in even heavier. People think the dollar in low now.....yikes....where is this puppy headed? I think down. The volatility of foreign markets is nasty, but given that I'm 37, I got a long term view. What do you think? |
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12-19-2006, 08:40 PM
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Registered
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Tucson AZ USA
Posts: 8,228
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When diversifying, never invest in any one sector more than you can afford to lose.
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Bob S. former owner of a 1984 silver 944 |
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12-19-2006, 09:07 PM
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Registered
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Peoples Republic of Long Beach, NY
Posts: 21,140
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Re: Tempted by, and worried by overseas funds.
Quote:
you're talking two different animals. $ value is a central bank game. It's a simple supply demand market function. capital markets are affected by tax hikes, protectionism, regulation and growth of government. Todays US central bank is going with relatively loose money. The Dem control of congress may also bring more activist government concerning free trade? Reid and Pelosi are due to state new Dem economic policies of their party. I don't expect a big US policy change. personally I'm a US mkt bull with foreign Scudder big cap, a Price int'l mid cap, and a Dodge and Cox int'l fund. Inflation is more of a worry than following the bouncing US dollar gyration every few years. there are ways to leverage dollar devaluation if you want to play the horses.. party hearty as I think now is a good time to play?
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Ronin LB '77 911s 2.7 PMO E 8.5 SSI Monty MSD JPI w x6 |
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12-19-2006, 10:15 PM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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I think you're fine where you sit. The dollar may well test all-time lows, but it could just as well rebound.
The recent talks in China didn't seem to go all so great. The Chinese were nodding their heads yes and smirking at the same time. Perhaps, the only way to get the yuan unpegged from the dollar is an gut-wrenching dollar decline. I started a dollar thread a few weeks ago. The obvious choice for currency diversification is international stocks and mutual funds, but the purest form is gold and commodities. Of course, one could make the argument commodities, as an asset class, is looking sore. As an aside, I would use any magazine front page as a cue for a contrarian play. If the cover of any business mag says "The incredible shrinking dollar," that'd be a good time to go long the US dollar. I'm dumb enough to actual try it. |
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12-20-2006, 05:19 AM
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Former Options Trader !!!
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bucks County PA
Posts: 6,756
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The Dollar is NOT near the all time low vs the YEN by a long shot... We're talking 80 yen back in april 1995. Loads of room to move there.
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12-20-2006, 10:40 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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DXY dollar index is another representation of the dollar, and we are about 5% above the low of around 79.5-80.
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12-20-2006, 11:39 AM
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