Any other Fantasy Baseball Geeks Here?

[CJFusco]

Our 4th Annual Fantasy Baseball Draft is being held Tuesday night at a local Chili's. Over the past 3 years, we've averaged about 7 GMs per season; this year, it looks like we will have 10-12, making 2007 a very deep draft.

Instead of the traditional 5X5 Rotisserie, we do a 6X6 Rotisserie, adding walks to the offensive categories (we are living in the MONEYBALL era, after all). Over the past couple years we've used Complete Games as the 6th pitching category. I personally think it might be better to use something like Walk/Strikeout ratio, because Complete Games is not really a stat that you can draft for - it comes down to almost complete luck.

I've come in 2nd place all three years in a row. Two out of the three times, the 1st place winner has been a guy that plays Fantasy sports obsessively; he has leagues for NBA, NFL, NASCAR, NHL, Golf, as well as a couple MLB leagues. It is my goal to beat him this year. Last year was especially frustrating because I led the league until late August, when I started to run out of pitching innings.

If I have an advantage going into the draft, it's that the other GMs might put too much emphasis on the player rankings in Sporting News/Lindeys/Street&Smith's, forgetting that the rankings in those guides are ranked by 5X5 rotisserie scoring. If you add walks to the equation, the rankings don't change drastically, but players like Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds, and David Ortiz have increased values (esp. considering that Ortiz qualifies for 1st base in our league instead of just DH/Util.).

Anyhow, here is my dream draft. Obviously I would never in a million years be able to put together a team like this - unless my rivals are all complete morons (they aren't):

C - Joe Mauer
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jose Reyes
3B - Alex Rodriguez
OF - Vladmir Guererro
OF - Alfonso Soriano
OF - Ichiro
Util - David Ortiz
SP - Johan Santana
SP - Roy Halliday
RP - Joe Nathan
RP - Mariano Rivera
P - Chris Carpenter
P - Roy Oswalt
P - Francisco Rodriguez
P - BJ Ryan
P - Billy Wagner
B - Ryan Howard, 1B
B - Chone Figgins, 2B, 3B, OF
B - Miguel Cabrera, 3B
B - Lance Berkman, 1B, OF
B - Manny Ramirez, OF
B - Victor Martinez, C
B - Hanley Ramirez, SS

Obviously, this won't happen. I have a few dark horse picks - Jonathan Papelbon is making the transition from reliever to starter this year, and he could put up 15-17 wins. It seems like Khalil Green of the Padres is due to break out this year, as is Prince Fielder.

[CJFusco]

Hah, I guess not!

[Dan in Pasadena]

CJ,

I'm a life long baseball fan but not a stat guy and I've never done Fantasy leagues before but apparently I am this year! I honestly haven't the slightest idea how it all works but I guess I'll learn by doing. Your fantasy roster above will probably help me!

Any suggestions for the "Idiot's Guide to Fanatasy Baseball"?

[CJFusco]

Sure, lots of tips. First of all, you have to know what kind of scoring system your team is using. Rotisserie is the most common; this type of scoring system uses a set of stats (5 or 6 for hitters, 5 or 6 for pitchers), and gives points for your team's performance relative to the other players in your league. For example, if there are 4 players in your league, and Player A has 100 HR, Player B has 90, C has 80, and D has 70, Player A would get 4 points, B would get 3, and on.

You also have to keep in mind that you ARE drafting for position, but you should NEVER give up an elite player just because you need to fill a spot. For example, if Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez have just been drafted, and Alfonso Soriano is still available, you absolutely should NOT jump on Derek Jeter simply because he is the best elite SS available. You want maximum production, and the performance drop-off from an elite SS (Jeter) to a good one (Tejada) isn't as drastic as from an elite player (Soriano, Pujols, Ortiz) to a great position player (Jeter).

Also, do NOT draft pitchers early, ESPECIALLY closers. Santana is the only pitcher that should be drafted in early rounds, and that's because he is a sure thing, he stays healthy, and he puts up stats in every category except Saves. If someone in your league drafts a closer in the first round, they are clueless; think about it - a closer will get you saves, ERA, and WHIP, but that's only 3 categories. You'll be lucky if each closer records 2 Ks per appearance. They pitch for 1 or 2 innings every 2-3 nights. If you draft Albert Pujols instead, he gets you tons of HR, RBI, Runs, Batting Average, Walks EVERY NIGHT. Besides, pitchers are notoriously inconsistent, and the talent pool is more even than offensive players.