Timing the stock market

HardDrive · 05-09-2007, 01:38 PM

Please, no factual, well reasoned responses to this thread. This thread is all about wild speculation

We are definitely seeing some irrational exuberance at the moment. I think 13,000 has went to everyones head. Feds aren't rocking the boat.

I think we will retreat below 13,000 at some point this year. What will be the tipping point?

Any answer that involves "Godzilla" or "Monkeys with plasma rifles" gets extra points.

stevepaa · 05-09-2007, 01:40 PM

You should all sell when I buy. Guaranteed.

Jim Richards · 05-09-2007, 01:47 PM

My financial advisor:

MRM · 05-09-2007, 01:52 PM

Sell in May and go away. It's at close to a peak now. Sell into market strengths.

MRM · 05-09-2007, 01:53 PM

The market is hot and getting hotter. Rates are stable and profits are better than expected. The worst of the energy crunch is over. There is nothing irrational about this exuberance. Buy, buy, buy!

Rot 911 · 05-09-2007, 02:01 PM

This thread will definitely need some of this:

Markus33 · 05-09-2007, 03:22 PM

Key word seems to be "liquidity" these days.

Markus
'80 SC Targa

David · David's Garage

Quote:

Originally posted by MRM
Sell in May and go away. It's at close to a peak now. Sell into market strengths.

I think that's been the standard play forever and then buy back around Sept or Oct. Unfortunately, I'm too lazy to worry about it

.

MRM · 05-09-2007, 04:30 PM

Either way I'm going to quote myself from here at the end of the year. Of course I have no idea whether the market will go up or down, but neither do the "experts". I figure if I say enough contradictory things and make enough obtuse predictions I will be able to point back to something I said as proof that I was right.

jorian · 05-09-2007, 04:33 PM

Tipping Point = American Idol IPO.

jluetjen · jluetjen's Garage

Plastics!

Zeke · 05-09-2007, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by jluetjen
Plastics!

Now I know how old you are. As old as me.

Just a thought: After a 20 year period, if you add up commissions and mistakes, who wins, the guy who never sold a thing, or the hot speculator? (Oh I know someone can find a 20 year period that will tell the story both ways; you get the point.)

EdT82SC · 05-09-2007, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MRM
Sell in May and go away. It's at close to a peak now. Sell into market strengths.

Read this article in last week's Newsweek. Very interesting.

Money: Summer Stock Shifting

pwd72s · 05-09-2007, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by milt
Now I know how old you are. As old as me.

Just a thought: After a 20 year period, if you add up commissions and mistakes, who wins, the guy who never sold a thing, or the hot speculator? (Oh I know someone can find a 20 year period that will tell the story both ways; you get the point.)

Good point, Milt...Trading costs money...and additional taxes when you take a profit. The long term guy wins, when ALL costs are considered, hands down.

That said, Cindy (my bride and financial manager) does time the market. She got us out of equities (That's "stocks" for those of you in Rio Linda) and into a money market fund in January of 2000. We moved back into equities with a portion of our portfolio in April of 2003. This is hardly short term trading. Right now, we're still in, but at our advanced ages, only around 40% of our total holdings. Well, probably more than that now because of the recent rise in the equities markets. We're also now a bit into internationals, about 8% of our equity holdings.

How does Cindy time it so well? I could probably go into a long list of "indicators" that she follows...but it's much simpler to tell the truth.

That is, she gets naked, smears herself with wood ashes, goes back among the trees, and studies chicken entrails!

Most small investors like ourselves belong to the religion of "buy and hold"...I'm not trying to discourage them here. To each his own. I would advise them to asset allocate though, and go more into top rated bonds or treasury issues as they get closer to retirement. Many things change the market, some of them unforseen such as 9-11-01, the Enron collapse, etc. You don't want to be caught all in the market with retirement just around the corner. You may not have the time to recoup your sudden losses. Generally speaking, when the market heads South, it does so quickly. When it heads North, it's over a longer time period.

BTW, Tabby can back me up on our exit and entry dates...from our old days of our feuding & posting on that other board...the one neither of us visit these days. I remember well one post he made over there, pleading with all to "invest in America". When he made that post, Cindy & I were all the way out of equities. Had been for 6 weeks or so. The market suffered a few more years of decline after his post was made.

Yup! I'm bragging! But Tabby can't say I didn't try to tell him so...

BTW Tabby, U wer Rite over there...

tc-sacto · 05-09-2007, 05:36 PM

THE MARKET WILL RISE HIGH!!

on-ramp · 05-09-2007, 05:41 PM

At some point, you have to sell your stock and realize the gain. Isn't that the whole point? And yes, it's always good to try and time the market, if you can.
Oh , and here's a good tip:
But Low, Sell High.

Here's another good tip: if you are happy with your gain, it's ok to take money of the table. there are always other opportunities down the road. you'll never buy at the very bottom or sell at the very top.

pwd72s · 05-09-2007, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MRM
Either way I'm going to quote myself from here at the end of the year. Of course I have no idea whether the market will go up or down, but neither do the "experts". I figure if I say enough contradictory things and make enough obtuse predictions I will be able to point back to something I said as proof that I was right.

You should go on the circuit...conduct seminars until you can buy infomercial time from those fees. Yup...so many fools in TV land never ask the simple question: "Gee, if this guy knows how to beat the market, how come he's bothering to sell his "system" to me? He should be as rich as Warren Buffett..."

Me? I'll stick with Cindy reading chicken entrails. There have been low return years...but zero losing years.

on2wheels52 · on2wheels52's Garage

Ricky Lee Jones said there's no such thing as, "easy money". My stock market experence says she's wrong.
Jim

Kraftwerk · 05-09-2007, 06:51 PM

Kurt V has a good point.

pwd72s · 05-09-2007, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by on2wheels52
Ricky Lee Jones said there's no such thing as, "easy money". My stock market experence says she's wrong.
Jim

Just curiosity here...when did you enter the market? And then, which %age of your investments are equities? How old are you? Your goals? I have an acquaintance who thinks playing pool is "easy money"...until Franscsco Bustamante, one of the top players on the planet, playing in disguise, took him to the cleaners. My bottom line advice here? If you invest, diversify.
Asset allocate carefully. And then, keep an eye on your number of birthdays, as they roll along.