Italy quake: muzzled scientist who foresaw quake?

[imcarthur]

OK. This might be the typical wacko that always surfaces, but . . .

"An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila," the civil protection agency said in a statement on the eve of that meeting.

"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and attention". "

Source: Reuters AlertNet

Ian

[ckissick]

I used to work at the USGS on an earthquake prediction research project. We used anomalous changes in water levels in wells. The same principal applies to increases in radon gas. Just before an earthquake, there is a "strain event", or a change in the stress/strain regime. The change in strain does things to water levels, magnetic fields, and radon gas emissions. You can also make direct measures of earth strain.

China once predicted an earthquake because of changes in water levels in wells, and an increase radon gas has often been reported occurring just before an earthquake, however it's always been after the fact. The guy is not a whacko.

[dd74]

No, he's not a wacko. But loudspeakers on cars, demanding everyone evacuate? That's sort of "whacked," IMO.

Unfortunately, he was correct.

A story on the news today stated emission of radon gas is not a reliable predictor for an earthquake.

[ckissick]

Originally Posted by dd74

A story on the news today stated emission of radon gas is not a reliable predictor for an earthquake.

True. It can probably be no better than predicting weather, and probably not even that good. Sometimes you have a strain event with no earthquake, and sometimes you have an earthquake with no measurable buildup of strain beforehand.

[DanielDudley]

Sounds like the plot of a Dubbed B movie...