Why?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

bold is mine

latest NIE


Government Report Concludes Al Qaeda Now as Strong as in Summer of 2001

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

WASHINGTON —
U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded Al Qaeda has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned.

The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to rebuild despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.

Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal that will be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.

The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.

Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al Qaeda better positioned to strike the West." The document pays special heed to the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Al Qaeda is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

The group also has created "the most robust training program since 2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.

At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about Al Qaeda's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

The threat assessment comes as the National Intelligence Council is preparing a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.

Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about Al Qaeda's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.

Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer timeframe to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that Al Qaeda would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.

The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.

"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."

Several European countries — among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands — are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.

This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.

The Bush administration has repeatedly cited Al Qaeda as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.

"The number one enemy in Iraq is Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday.

The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.

The threat assessment says that Al Qaeda stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.

The agreement allows Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.

It also says that Al Qaeda is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.

"Being No. 3 in Al Qaeda is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.

The counterterror official said the report does not focus on Usama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in Al Qaeda. Officials say the network has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.

Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.

Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area, despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.

"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to Al Qaeda," Fingar said.

[DanielDudley]

''But if we kill all the gophers, who's gonna play the game?''

[Rearden]

We taxpayers pay good money for these "intelligence" reports. What vague CYA crap.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by Rearden
We taxpayers pay good money for these "intelligence" reports. What vague CYA crap.

did you mean to post on the Chertoff's Gut thread?

[rcecale]

Originally posted by Shaun 84 Targa
Why?

Well, let's see...

Nutbags like Cindy Sheehan leading her entourage of fruitcakes and such, denouncing any and everything having to do with this war.

Democratic senators and representatives trying to undermine the war effort at every chance they can get.

The MSM showing nothing but the bad side of anything in the war, neglecting to shed light on any of the better occurances related to it.

Whiney-a$$ed libs who scream and holler about the way POWs in Gitmo are treated, blasting the US military whenever some poor civilian is injured or killed because the enemy has taken to hiding behind them, using them as a shield to fight behind...

... and you have the audacity to ask "Why?"

Gimme a ******* break!

[ flame suit on ]

Randy

[126coupe]

Originally posted by Shaun 84 Targa
bold is mine

latest NIE


Government Report Concludes Al Qaeda Now as Strong as in Summer of 2001

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

WASHINGTON —
U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded Al Qaeda has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned.

The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to rebuild despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.

Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal that will be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.

The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.

Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al Qaeda better positioned to strike the West." The document pays special heed to the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Al Qaeda is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

The group also has created "the most robust training program since 2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.

At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about Al Qaeda's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

The threat assessment comes as the National Intelligence Council is preparing a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.

Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about Al Qaeda's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.

Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer timeframe to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that Al Qaeda would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.

The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.

"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."

Several European countries — among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands — are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.

This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.

The Bush administration has repeatedly cited Al Qaeda as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.

"The number one enemy in Iraq is Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday.

The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.

The threat assessment says that Al Qaeda stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.

The agreement allows Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.

It also says that Al Qaeda is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.

"Being No. 3 in Al Qaeda is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.

The counterterror official said the report does not focus on Usama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in Al Qaeda. Officials say the network has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.

Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.

Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area, despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.

"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to Al Qaeda," Fingar said.

who has the time or patience to read this way too long post?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by rcecale
Well, let's see...

Nutbags like Cindy Sheehan leading her entourage of fruitcakes and such, denouncing any and everything having to do with this war.

Democratic senators and representatives trying to undermine the war effort at every chance they can get.

The MSM showing nothing but the bad side of anything in the war, neglecting to shed light on any of the better occurances related to it.

Whiney-a$$ed libs who scream and holler about the way POWs in Gitmo are treated, blasting the US military whenever some poor civilian is injured or killed because the enemy has taken to hiding behind them, using them as a shield to fight behind...

... and you have the audacity to ask "Why?"

Gimme a ******* break!

[ flame suit on ]

Randy

Randy, can you show a direct connection between your statements above and the reconstitution of AQ? You've laid out some great talking points. What's the evidence behind them?

[cmccuist]

Originally posted by Shaun 84 Targa
Randy, can you show a direct connection between your statements above and the reconstitution of AQ? You've laid out some great talking points. What's the evidence behind them?

Bin laden himself saw the way the US left their own special forces to be dragged through the streets of Somalia and it emboldened him. The "strong horse/weak horse" philosophy has been cited many times by al qaida as motivation for continiuing on with the fight. They see the US as a paper tiger who doesn't have the stomach for the long haul.

The islmamists are patient. When things aren't going their way, the retreat, bide their time, work the UN angle, save their money and wait for the pussies and gas bags in congress to surrender.

Al qaida is more media savy than Madona and Paris Hilton combined. 14 of the 19 provinces in Iraq are peaceful and functioning well. The surge is working in the other 5 provinces, but Patraeus needs more time . (Krauthammer column)

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by cmccuist
Bin laden himself saw the way the US left their own special forces to be dragged through the streets of Somalia and it emboldened him. The "strong horse/weak horse" philosophy has been cited many times by al qaida as motivation for continiuing on with the fight. They see the US as a paper tiger who doesn't have the stomach for the long haul.

The islmamists are patient. When things aren't going their way, the retreat, bide their time, work the UN angle, save their money and wait for the pussies and gas bags in congress to surrender.

Al qaida is more media savy than Madona and Paris Hilton combined. 14 of the 19 provinces in Iraq are peaceful and functioning well. The surge is working in the other 5 provinces, but Patraeus needs more time . (Krauthammer column)

So you are in agreement with me that we should have 300,000 troops in iraq? 150ish is truly a paper tiger.

What do you think of Bush emboldening AQ by making them the focal point of every speech? Saw him yesterday. Wouldn't it be better to dismiss their existence and just use generic terms like terrorist and insurgent? We know that the "fight against the US" is a great training tool, and Bush is continually confirming their desires. When Bush said "Bring it on" AQ recruitment surged.

[Tobra]

What Craig posted above is pretty much common knowledge. The folks undermining our efforts for political gain(Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi for example) know that showing diplaying our lack of resolve is not helpful.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by Tobra
What Craig posted above is pretty much common knowledge. The folks undermining our efforts for political gain(Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi for example) know that showing diplaying our lack of resolve is not helpful.

Which displays greater lack of resolve and aids AQ the most:
1l. only 150K troops doing the work of 300K
2. protesters
3. politicians opposing the war
4. Iraqi government failing to get anything done
5. no troops guarding Iranian and Syrian borders allowing trained terrorists and munitions to freely enter Iraq on a continual basis


Why have the Taliban and AQ been so effective in Afghanistan?

Does the average terrorist watch a lot of American media? most of iraq has 3 hours of electricity per day.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by cmccuist


Al qaida is more media savy than Madona and Paris Hilton combined. 14 of the 19 provinces in Iraq are peaceful and functioning well. The surge is working in the other 5 provinces, but Patraeus needs more time . (Krauthammer column)

Read the K article. I think the failure of the Right is to continually ascribe Western values and thinking to Iraqis. This is a critical failure. It's as though the entire Iraq experience has taught you nothing.

of course these sheiks are happy to have US Military doing their heavy lifting! Essentially the US is putting our soldier's lives on the line to consolidate power for the Sheiks.

Here's the failure on your thought process. If they were doing this for say, Springfield, IL, it would work. The mayor and city council would be overjoyed and the town would prosper for the benefit of its citizens. You're thinking these sheiks are like us.

they are not.

in Iraq, power is consolidated and then used in the Shiite vs. Sunni civil war. AQ is an unwanted 3rd party, nothing more. AQ wasn't germane to iraq, but came in only after seeing what a great recruitment tool it could be. They are essentially getting in the way of the Sunni-Shiite 3000 year old battle. Combine that with the Iraqi government achieving nothing in the last 2 years and you have some feel good moments in a big picture of crap.

You need to stop thinking Iraqi's are like us and appreciate our help. They like us only because we are doing their heavy lifting, and it is on our backs, and our young men's lives that they are building their own powerbases from which to wage war on each other.

[scottmandue]

6. Because we are royally pissing them off by occupying their country thus giving them a common cause to rally around.

[cmccuist]

Originally posted by Shaun 84 Targa
in Iraq, power is consolidated and then used in the Shiite vs. Sunni civil war. AQ is an unwanted 3rd party, nothing more. AQ wasn't germane to iraq, but came in only after seeing what a great recruitment tool it could be. They are essentially getting in the way of the Sunni-Shiite 3000 year old battle. Combine that with the Iraqi government achieving nothing in the last 2 years and you have some feel good moments in a big picture of crap.

You need to stop thinking Iraqi's are like us and appreciate our help. They like us only because we are doing their heavy lifting, and it is on our backs, and our young men's lives that they are building their own powerbases from which to wage war on each other.

Shaun, what you've written here makes a lot of sense as far as Sunni-Shiite hatred and Arab-American love/hate. But I am hoping that AQ is using Iraq and Afghanistan as a last stand. I believe AQ is focusing their attentions and recruiting here to thwart any furthur expansion of a pluralistic secular/theocratic type rule.

Having lived in the ME for awhile, I can say that you are correct in the fact that they aren't like us. However, I believe there are enough non-hardline muslims to make a functioning society.

There may always be Sunni-Shiite hatred, much like Protestant-Catholic conflicts in Ireland.

I still think that pulling out will do more harm than good. If we could seal off the border of Syria and Iran (and Mexico), and get the Iranians to stop funding and arming Al qaida, I believe we could still salvage something out of our losses of men and money.

[Tobra]

Originally posted by Shaun 84 Targa
Which displays greater lack of resolve and aids AQ the most:
1l. only 150K troops doing the work of 300K
2. protesters
3. politicians opposing the war
4. Iraqi government failing to get anything done
5. no troops guarding Iranian and Syrian borders allowing trained terrorists and munitions to freely enter Iraq on a continual basis


Why have the Taliban and AQ been so effective in Afghanistan?

Does the average terrorist watch a lot of American media? most of iraq has 3 hours of electricity per day.

#3, as it gives them a light at the end of the tunnel. "We only have to hold on until April 2008 and then we will win by default."

Oh wait, that was a rhetorical question. 1, 4 and 5 are also all pretty big, but those are more operational details than anything to do with resolve.

Not all of them watch a lot of American media, just the marketing/media arm. They put up video of protestors, or Harry Reid saying we have already lost, and it is of immeasurable value to them.

[tabs]

Remember a few months ago I wrote that Mushareff in Pakistan had a Tiger by the Tail and that most of the intel successes against terrorism came with the help of the Pakistanis....Well guess what..now you just offically read it...

The Secular West that is quanitative over qualitative is ill equiped to combat an amorphic enemy. The Jihad is gaining strength as the West blunders along allowing disaffected Muslims to vent their fustration at lack of participation in a secular system. They wistfully return to the values of a simpler time. It is possibly only a matter of time before the West is defeated and a return to a new dark ages is ushered in.

Perhaps the downfall of the West will be hastened if a Big Event is carried off successfully. As the financial system of money and capital flow will be shocked, crippled and brought to a standstill. This will bring about Political instability in the West with the resulting collapse of Western cultures Hegemony in the world.

[island911]

. .. and for more early headlines:

HEADLINES FROM THE YEAR: 2029


Ozone created by electric cars now killing millions in the seventh largest country in the world, Mexifornia, formerly known as California. White minorities still trying to have English recognized as Mexifornia's third language.

Spotted Owl plague threatens northwestern United States crops and livestock.

Baby conceived naturally. Scientists stumped.

Couple petitions court to reinstate heterosexual marriage.

Last remaining Fundamentalist Muslim dies in the American Territory of the Middle East (formerly known as Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon).

Iran still closed off; physicists estimate it will take at least 10 more years before radioactivity decreases to safe levels.

France pleads for global help after being taken over by Jamaica.

Castro finally dies at age 112; Cuban cigars can now be imported legally, but President Chelsea Clinton has banned all smoking.

George Z. Bush says he will run for President in 2036.

Postal Service raises price of first class stamp to $17.89 and reduces mail delivery to Wednesdays only.

85-year $75.8 billion study: Diet and Exercise is the key to weight loss.

Average weight of Americans drops to 250 lbs.

Japanese scientists have created a camera with such a fast shutter speed, they now can photograph a woman with her mouth shut.

Massachusetts executes last remaining conservative.

Supreme Court rules punishment of criminals, violates their civil rights.

Average height of NBA players is now nine feet, seven inches.

New federal law requires that all nail clippers, screwdrivers, fly swatters and rolled-up newspapers must be registered by January 2036.

Congress authorizes direct deposit of formerly illegal political contributions to campaign accounts.

IRS sets lowest tax rate at 75 percent.

Florida voters still having trouble with voting machines.

[island911]

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by Tobra
#3, as it gives them a light at the end of the tunnel. "We only have to hold on until April 2008 and then we will win by default."

Oh wait, that was a rhetorical question. 1, 4 and 5 are also all pretty big, but those are more operational details than anything to do with resolve.

Not all of them watch a lot of American media, just the marketing/media arm. They put up video of protestors, or Harry Reid saying we have already lost, and it is of immeasurable value to them.

yeah, I can see how 5 would be meaningless. Clearly you are a military strategy genius. who would have thought that terrorist resolve is stronger than cutting supply lines?

Yeah, I can see how resolve is going to go real far when they run out of bombs, ammunition, fresh recruits, etc. When I say borders closed, I mean borders closed.

When borders are open, time is on their side and we are REACTIVE. With their supply lines closed, they become REACTIVE. See how far resolve gets you then.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally posted by Tobra


Not all of them watch a lot of American media, just the marketing/media arm. They put up video of protestors, or Harry Reid saying we have already lost, and it is of immeasurable value to them.

Bush: "bring it on."

I think Bush and Team have done more to encourage terrorist recruitment around the world than any protesters have, or indeed, probably could.

When you tell the enemy to bring it on, when you say their name over and over and that very act encourages their rage and commitment to fight you, you become the very mortar that holds terrorists together and allows more bricks to be laid.

Bush is that mortar. Bush has done more for terrorist recruitment than anyone.