I think there's quite a few dead ones & some at Guantanamo & other prisons that might disagree.

Those are insignificant, hardly register as a data point really, as compared to the number of new terrorists who have joined the ranks. Terrorists live to die as martyrs, so actually the dead ones would agree as well.

I know it FEELS good to say we have killed terrorists and locked up a handful. But I like to deal with facts. There are more terrorists than ever before and they are killing more, destroying more, because of Team Bush/Cheney and any American that supports that team.

Nice of you to support Terrorism. More people will die because of you.

I thought the terrorists were a minuscule percentage of the peace loving muslims. Which way is it. Did the terrorists tell you there were more than before? Is that a fact.

Try to FEEL this one out.

if dead terrorists are 5

new recruited terrorists are 5000

worldwide Moslem population 50,000,000

Tabs,

The story about the PSD “Operative” is a little strange. The State department is not known for their quality hiring practices. That figure is in line w/someone who is mostly in the Green zone, etc. As far as a GO recommending him, GOs come in many different flavors and quality range. More than a few have made the news.

I also take exception to things being far worse than is being reported. From my perspective things are better than are reported. Most of my time has been in Anbar, which is very different than Baghdad. The closest analogy I have is jogging on Al Asad w/a reserve LtCol. when the base was hit by 122s. One landed relatively close by. He wanted to return and report our safety, while I finished my jog to the turn around point, then reported in. To him that was a huge incident worth remembering.

The short version is that I have served in the major theaters, plus Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, North Africa and a few others since Sep. 2001. My perspective is shaped by my experiences. I did/do not stay exclusively in areas frequented by tourists (even those doing the non-tourist adventure thing).

The problem the private military contractors have is logistical support. Without large conventional support they cannot expand to what is needed to survive. It is similar to those who think putting 150K personnel in Afghanistan is the same as into Iraq or that small SOF teams can operate w/o large conventional support. Neither can happen outside of movies or drug induced fantasies.

Shaun,

I must be missing the insurgency that has ended w/o military involvement, while most are military victories. How is the U.S. military getting in the way?

I strongly disagree with your premise that Islamic terrorists are not a threat to the U.S. Just because we haven’t had a large strike doesn’t mean no attacks have taken place nor others haven’t been stopped.

You are kidding that small SOF teams on their own w/o the rest of the military are the solution? This is at best entertainment (TV, movies, etc.) solutions. The SOFs do not operate w/o others. That is fact.

As far as being disliked I think it varies. Just as we in the U.S. have widely different opinions so do others. I have a very strong tendency to disregard someone’s opinion or position who states that a whole category (nationality, race, religion, etc.) has one single monolithic position. The best example is the last few times I have been through Paris (either CDG or ORL) in transit I have had the pleasure of good cigars and unlimited “sample” 25 y/o Cognac or Single Malt in a few duty free shops. This is after the smoking ban and with the Gendarme. The few who did complain to the Gendarme then looked at me and came up to thank me in broken English for helping to fight Muslim terrorists.

Is all these people, along with the Gendarme, is that I was traveling to N. Africa to work with the locals. Everyone was proud that they (the French) were the 1st to stop the Muslim horde and drive them back the 1st time (Charles Martel). Most/all admitted the our President is right but they couldn’t admit because he is not cultured.

What is your factual data point on more terrorists? Quality of new terrorists? Your numbers are very made up. Please add something for those dealing in the real world.

S/F, FOG

You on their email lists? Where the hell do these #'s come from?

So if total muslims are 50,000,000 and as you apologists say, only one or two percent are "radicals," 500,000 is the total # of available terrorists. According to you, every 1 we kill results in a 1000 recruits. We have already killed more than 500 so they are already tapped out of new recruits. Either that or your #'s are bull*****. Guess what I think?

I didn't know you could FEEL math.

good job on that.

and no one cares what you think Paris.

Geeze Mule, you don't get it...with lefties, the numbers are false, but the emotional reactions are genuine!

We finally agree. Join me in a verse of "feelings." The only problem with making decisions on feelings is that the only place they really matter is inside your left leaning head.

Again with FEELINGS from the neocon Right. I hope all this catharsis makes you guys FEEL good, or angry. Lots of ANGRY.

Leftie? pfft. yeah, my plan of 300K troops in Iraq is really Left. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Stop FEELING what nutjob right wing radio tells you feel.

Just support your numbers.

Shaun,

Out of curiosity what is the break down of your 300k troops? In theater number or in country? By service, location, TPFD, etc.?

S/F, FOG

Why bother Paris? It's not like you're going to do anything with hardcore numbers. I could post #'s from the DoD and DoS and you'd whine and cry about them because they don't FEEL right to you. You'd just pull out your biggest hammer and whack'em. That's what you do. If something doesn't fit with how you feel, you hit it.

I'm not here to do your thinking for you. Go to the Heritage Foundation, DoD and DoS and do your own research on terrorist growth. But I'm sure whatever you find, you'll discredit it, because no one told what to do with the information.

Come back when you've found what you are looking for.

Shaun,

I believe you’re attempting to be funny while addressing me when using the capital of France. Needs work.

Actually I have the DoD numbers and know the folks who put them together and have discussed the process/assumptions with him. I have done a bit more work than looking up numbers. I don’t go by what feels right, what is the task and what is required in various areas, etc. then add them up.

As you purport to be using your 300k that implies that you derived the number. That is why I am looking to expand my education as I am unaware of a scenario where that would be a useful number.

As various numbers get thrown around that erroneously interchange in theater and in country numbers I am attempting to see another possible solution.

S/F, FOG

no not you, Mule. He's the Paris Hilton of Pelican OT.

I'm looking up my previously posted 300K plan to repost for you. give me a few minutes please.

OK, first let me say that it seems like I could learn a thing or two from you. good, serious posts which are rare.

My 300K plan is simple and could use a lot more detail but it's basically the go big or go home approach.

add 300K troops to Iraq. I would prefer we get this number via a Draft. No one owns this war except for the Military

You can move ratio's around, but I want to seal the borders. We hear the DoS and DoD whine way too much about Iran, Syria sending in trained terrorists, bombs, munitions, etc. "destabilizing" Iraq. 100K troops on the border with Iran with 24/7 helicopter support nullifies outward influence from that direction which solves many problems. Same with Syria and other neighbors. I honestly don't understand why we as country have such a hard time sealing borders, whether our own, or Iraq. It's as though we roll out the red carpet to our enemies saying "c'mon in. Bring fresh recruits, the latest in IED technology, supplies and morale." When you cut off the lineline to the outside world, there's only so much an existing internal fighting force can do for so long.

With borders sealed, I want the country turned upside down rooting out insurgents, terrorists, civil war leadership. Anyone in government supporting a civil war is ousted. When I say I want the country turned upside down, I mean it. A clean sweep that may be brutal at times, but warranted. We'll lose some hearts and minds, but they'll be back when security is established. Put another way, there's a cancer in Iraq and we're treating it with band-aids. Sometimes you have cut the thing out. Other times you have to cut the limb off.

While all this is going on and violence is slowing down, it would be great if basic services like electricity and water were rebuilt, worked, and then protected. Want to win hearts and minds? Nothing like running water, electricity, trash removal, etc. to normalize people's lives. How anyone can imagine people won't be radicalized when even basic human needs are not provided is beyond me.

Some diplomacy might be in order too.

It's a simple plan. I could go on, but I've got to get some work done today. If you want to poke holes in it or plug in details/variances/better options, please do.

The one thing I know is we have 4 years of failure under our belt trying to do this war on the cheap. If we want to win, we've got to pony up.

and tell us more about yourself RE: Iraq, etc.

The 'go big' thing is also misleading because we have already 'gone big' and already approach the number you toss out . Its estimated that there are already 100k+ government contractors in Iraq. we double the soldiers... we double the contractors to support them.... so that makes, what... 500k people?

Shaun,

I’d take a look at that 300k number, it’s very light for what you propose. Look at force ratios of support to those out front. The helos are wearing out very fast as is the F/A-18 A-D plus lots of ground equipment.

Expanding via draft requires training, where, who does the training, etc. Lots of shortfalls in this area. Shortfalls in advanced training areas also.

You are never going to “seal” the border, reduce the flow substantially. This would have been much more effective initially but the that is history not futurity.

There are lots of problems with trying to weed out insurgents, not the least of which is we are not locals. Even bringing Persh from up North on down has limitations. Look at what is finally being allowed to happen in Anbar. Allowing the local units to work with the locals. One of the biggest problems is that every CWO-Maj. is running his small slice and doing accomplishing things in different ways (think SF writ large w/conventional units co-located). This does not translate well in hard metric numbers and thus not briefed well out of Anbar and even more mis-understood (mis-represented (deliberately or not) by the media.

I wonder why most people do not address the length of most insurgencies? The best guess in 03 from friend on Cent staffs was 8-12 years before the invasion predicated on phasing more units in and holding for a few years with more than we’ve had in at any time. Would have been cheaper in the long run . Unfortunately it would be costlier still to leave.

Just a Marine since 1980. Left end of 1999 and brought back as a regular AD Sep. 01. Overseas quite a bit and currently active duty w/some reserve units in Ft. Worth area waiting a medical retirement/disability.

S/F, FOG

1. From what I gather the Corporate Security Folks out in Iraq are starting to plan for their own logistic and air support.

2. It only took 19 Jihadists to NEARLY bring the house of cards down on 911

Quit changing the subject Shaun. Support your first numbirs, if you can.

Point blank you aren't worth it. You've been running around OT for 3 weeks now taking cheap, b!tchy shots on serious threads, never offering anything constructive, just shouting down people with mean-spirited banter that is tiring at best.

Do your own homework. You won't believe anything I post from any source and I just don't want to feed the troll anymore. You can take a cue from FOG.

Thanks for posting the requisite "told you so" in advance. :rolleyes:

Tabs,

I know they think they are planning on their own support. As one who was dragged kicking and screaming into a CSS tour/deployment plus working the air side I think they are being unrealistic. They like to get the straight operator types, both air and ground. Few if any I’ve met realize how deep the overall support is from all the assets. This is especially true

Not sure what you mean by “It only took 19 Jihadists to NEARLY bring the house of cards down on 911”, in context to either this thread on in general.

S/F, FOG

Hey Shaun don't be so hard on MRM....

interesting stuff and have to agree on many points, especially 100% sealing the border. But you can slow to a trickle or make it difficult enough for them to just give up. Like cutting off a fuel supply route in a conventional war, I think cutting off fresh talent which brings with it morale, as well as munitions would make a real difference.

What are your thoughts on a realistic plan for the next year, 2 years, 10 years?

If a silver bullet existed, what would it look like?

BTW, what should the media be reporting? Curious there.

Thanks

Shaun

Did you work Scan Eagle?

LOL! MRM is breath of fresh air around here.

The global economy runs on LIQUIDITY. If liquidity drys up, down comes the global economy. Thats why the Fed reduced the overnight lending rate to 1% to keep the system liquid. Thats why we sent 80B to Euro Banks during 911 week, thats why GM dropped the interest rate to 0% financing to keep the money flowing, people buying. Thats also part of the reason why they closed the Financial Markets for a week after 911, to let things cool off. Get it?

Brokerage Houses/Banks make Markets in Certain Stocks. That means they buy them when there is an inbalance of sellers to buyers to support that stocks price level. If the system is swamped with sellers and no buyers, sooner or later the Brokerss/Banks run outa cash to support stock price levels and they can go into free fall after the liquidity drys up. Mutual Fund redemptions, Bank Account withdrawls etc are all part of the same thing.

Now what do U think will happen if another "Big Event" happens...that run on liquidity terrifys them.

The only source you've referenced so far is your own imagination. The truth shall sat you free, but first it will p!ss you off.

Shaun,

I have to think about answering in more depth in a public forum. There are both security issues and UCMJ issues about criticizing in a public forum. You are right that you can cut down the flow that is really not the issue. There were enough armaments in country already, including enough to make shaped charges w/liners. Look up the size of the storage area next to Al Asad airbase as an example.

I think the media should be reporting accurately. They all want the 5-10 minute story and for all their “worldliness” they miss far more of the nuances than 95% of the Troops (meaning Marines, Soldiers, Sailors and airmen) on the ground. If you ever get a chance have a drink with those who have done CAG or similar tours. The stories are eerily similar in that the media types don’t get their idea of what is going on, is confused what doesn’t want to show and leaves. The media has the same problem as the DoD and DoS, the media needs imbeds for the expertise to have a clue on what is reported but doesn’t want them to become too friendly with the military while the DoD and DoS have area experts who live there. The difference is that most of the DoD types that are not FAOs work hard at understanding something that is foreign to them…

SeaHawk,

Never operated UAVs. Just an occasional user and hopefully not an abuser. Great tools but lots of potential for things to go wrong, more than a few close calls on the intramural side of things.

Currently down at Ft. Worth and having issues w/ reserve USMC air, USAFR Vipers, and Lockheed plant flight safety in conjunction with the base. So far it is USMC and Lockheed on one side and USN trying to throw out OPNAV, etc. for some form of USAF stuffs. Safety issues for all concerned.

S/F, FOG

Lets say ole Al Qaeda is successfull with another "Big Event" in the USA and somewhere else in the world at the same time...lets say LA and Toyko...Whoa unto whoever gave them access to that means of creating carnage...The US and West in general won't be Mr Nice Guy like we are now, we are gona hurt somebody real bad.

If U think this is just my wild eyed ranting and raving, U better guess again. This is exactly what the former Deputy Secratary of State for Policy said....one Mr Paul Krasner currently residing at Stanford U. as a Poli Sci Prof.

Tabs,

I have a basic understanding of those basics, though by no means a Wall street guru. My perception that a lot that was caused by knee jerk reaction from both media and Wall street types.

Last Christmas I attended a dinner with some Wall street types and a similar discussion came about. My question was what real (vice psychological) damage was done and how much was over people (media, talking heads, etc.) causing a panic? I can see their point that perception is reality but I only buy that for a little bit.

Truly looking for another opinion.

As far as hitting back look at 911. If the President was ready to play defense and be protected where would he go in the Florida Pan handle region? Someplace with lots of snake eaters and F-15s. If ready to play offense then????? I wonder how close we came to playing offense that day if we’ll ever really know.

S/F, FOG

Interesting. I'll PM you. I don't see that side of the safety issues. I'm headed back to 29 Palms next week to work with the Marines on their first deployment of Shadow. All is going well. I'll see them in theater in October.

SeaHawk,

No big deal. Issues w/arresting gear rigging. The Vipers use departure end, and Hornets use approach end. The requirement at Naval airfield is both or airfield is considered FOD’d, even helo bases (Futenma for example). Problem is rigging and getting it accidently tripped with a shortage of personnel to re-rig. The base and the Viper unit want just the departure end so no tripping and Vipers can land before the gear.

The Hornets want both as the runway switches as does the Lockheed plant. I have talking to their safety and Chief test pilot, though they are generally flying heavier block 60 jets.. They want both so no tailwind landings to hit the in place gear (12-18 KTAS tailwind component with a partially broken jet and live ord is not ideal).

The other issue is the BASH that the TANG and USAFR want. We’re refusing to sign as it is not in accordance w/any Naval Avation program.

S/F, FOG

PS. Lockheed as a Viper demonstrator that guys really want a crack at. Two seat A model, other wise stripped and a -132 motor. Can we say fun!!!

It was over lunch during 911 week that it was explained to me about how a run on Stocks could dry liquidity up. The explainer operates on the same plain of expertise as Allan Greenspan and is also connected to the RNC.

Tabs,

These guys were very full of themselves, bragging about how they would buy 3-5 (100K+) new cars at a time and drive them for a few months to decide which one they really wanted to keep, then selling the others at a loss as their time was worth more than the depreciation. I kind of got the impression that they were trying to impress with CDI factor. Not impressed.

They said they were Republican, but then what does that mean?

I understand the liquidity, etc. My point is what would have happened if we would have taken the approach that while they hurt us it was by no means serious. Something along the lines of Londoners after their bombs went off. Not lead to a crisis in confidence?

My personal opinion is that the average American responded better than the media and talking heads who were all talking doom and gloom. I have some dealing w/media and New Yorkers (city types) and came away with the impression that they thought the world revolved around them while espousing a global view that didn’t add up in my pea brain. The result was if it hurt NYC then it was catastrophic for the U.S.

I could be missing the mark also. Finance is not my area of expertise.

S/F, FOG

Yeah thats all well and good, but Mother is a friend of the former Fed Chief.

Shaun, according to your FACTS, yesterday, we should have motivated about 32,000 more peace lovers to take up arms for the religion of peace. Allah smackbar.

Tabs, I can't believe you would say that about me. You know I've been on this board for years, not weeks.

:)

What did I say about you on this Thread, I didn't say a word, Shaun said it. I even suggested that Shaun was being a bit hard on you, so I am even sympathetic towards your plight.