Forgive me for not reading the entire thread. I don’t see how we’re not going to have a recession. What scares me is inflation in a recession which is the dreaded “stagflation.” Some of you might remember that from the 1970’s and that’s not a pretty thought.

My 2 cents … One of the funds we run is a hedge for individual investors who have at least 1 million in long equities in their own accounts. The interest in that product and the AOM in that product have gone up significantly since this past spring. Those people with money are feeling the frost of recession and its effects on the equity markets.

As someone noted, spending on toys or art or high end non essentials is a tell tale.

Is it still worth THAT much :)? Thanks for your perspective!

Worth more these days since I am a big ole bear and have been for a while.. Took some licks along the way. I think that was documented back in the spring on a different thread about the markets

Wow, tech is taking an ASS-REAMING today. Good thing I didn't buy those 750 November calls I was looking at. Cripes, GOOG looks like it's going to finish down close to $100 by the end of today. . .

The only green symbols on my screen today are the VIX index and Crude. 1411 in the S and P cash next stop.

If tech rolls over, I would become more concerned with the economy. Tech, telecom, and utilities have kept the market in the black, in some ways.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-industryearn.html

My personal experience and research in real estate indicates that housing will be a severe drag for some time, but my impression was that tech and corporate spending would keep things afloat.

NDX down a scant 4% so far, still time to sell it!

Implied volatility is not high enough for me to get excited about a bottom yet, not even close.


GOOG how?

Our sales orders are in for Spring 08, better boy's clothing, 80% Main Street stores. 20% department stores. Talked with our showrooms. Business is way down across the board, even for girls.

Even if a recession doesn't happen, Main Street is planning 3-6 months out as though one will.

If the FCC would chill the F*&% out Telecoms would be doing a lot better than they are right now. (at least the one I work for)

My foreign mutual funds are still doing ok though my US stuff is down.