U.S. is screwed ... US$ is way down!

[Sapporo Guy]

Have been watching the YEN vs US$ and the yen is trading at: US$ = 97 yen

I haven't seen this for like 14 years (I bought US$1 for 96 yen). A couple of times at 106 yen but not 97!!! That's almost a 30 cent drop since July 2007.

Nope, the Japanese economy is not kicking butt!
However, import goods are going to get real cheap again, we have a COSTCO in town now! Nice timing!


The US$ to CN$ is at 99 cents. Well, at least I can say that the Canadians are doing well economically. I remember going up to Toronto at 76 cents per dollar, for a kid that meant I had created money and could spend more

That's a 20 cent loss to the Canadians.


Ok, folks ... I think that the recession is really headed your way ...
Time to start to get ready to buy stocks and land

[Zef]

Yup...Canada is on his way...but don't forget than the Canadian economy is based on the US one....We're linked together my friend....

[tabs]

Guess WHat the Central Banks are going to make a concerted move to support the $$$. That will break the back of commodities speculation.

[ckissick]

Originally Posted by tabs

Guess WHat the Central Banks are going to make a concerted move to support the $$$. That will break the back of commodities speculation.

Yes, but how will this affect spoon futures?

[MRM]

Spoons are central bank proof.

This is nothing that wasn't said in 2001, 1991, 1987, 1978, etc., etc. The business cycle goes up and it goes down. Sometimes the US is up, sometimes it's down. Sometimes financials are in vogue, sometimes it's manufacturing. The secret is to know the difference between cycles and the end of the world as we know it. Buy based on intrinsic value, invest for the long term and don't let the noise drown you out. Manufacturing is kicking butt again because of the low dollar. China's trade surpluss is about 80% attributable to currency valuation inequities. Ride it out and in five years you'll be laughing at all those people who predicted the Euro was going to conquer all.

[M.D. Holloway]

It is a ploy to lull you Asians into a false sense of security. As soon as you think our ecomony hits rock bottom, it will plummit even further then...opps...there goes the yen...then the RMB..then the Franc, the Pound, and the Loonie all the while the US of A sits back and wonders what color to paint their plasma screened media room of their 3000+sqft home with the 3 car garage. Yes Maria, I would like for you to clean under the washer machine. Yes it is large, like everything else in the US. Big, full of ego and expensive and very difficult to move...

[Sapporo Guy]

Sorry folks, I glow in the dark. Born just south of Buffalo


lolo, end of the world ... I was just thinking recession and buying greenbacks until the cycle moves to 120 again

20 yen profit ... figure about 20% ROI ... now where to find 100k
nope, not gonna move the 9' out of the garage ... but that would only be 10k+ ...

Spring has come ... if this were the beginning of winter ... just maybe ...

[Joeaksa]

U.S. is screwed ... US$ is way down!

The US is screwed only when we give up and let the country go down.

Wish you guys would learn that. Some of you are starting to sound like a bunch of pansy a$$ democrats...

[Sapporo Guy]

The US is screwed only when we give up and let the country go down.

I thought that PPOT was the think tank -- sort of a neo-world order association ...
Did I sign up at the wrong place ?

[Rot 911]

Originally Posted by LubeMaster77

It is a ploy to lull you Asians into a false sense of security. As soon as you think our ecomony hits rock bottom, it will plummit even further then...opps...there goes the yen...then the RMB..then the Franc, the Pound, and the Loonie all the while the US of A sits back and wonders what color to paint their plasma screened media room of their 3000+sqft home with the 3 car garage. Yes Maria, I would like for you to clean under the washer machine. Yes it is large, like everything else in the US. Big, full of ego and expensive and very difficult to move...

This had me laughing out loud. Nobody can laugh at themselves like us Americans!

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by Sapporo Guy

I thought that PPOT was the think tank -- sort of a neo-world order association ...
Did I sign up at the wrong place ?

The problem is that most of the people who are saying that "the sky is falling" are not thinking.

Until the last week things were not looking that bad and even now its still workable IF, and thats a big IF, people do not give in to the panic being preached by the news agencies.

[widebody911]

On a previous thread about the value of the dollar, a couple of the Great Pelican Prognosticators said that the drop in the dollar was a good thing.

[MRM]

A lower dollar is a good thing in relationship to some currency. The trade deficit with the Chinese is mostly attributable to an artificially weak RMB. A lower dollar makes Japanese cars more expensive, giving the medium-sized three a little breathing room. A lower dollar against the Euro gives US manufacturing a huge advantage over European manufacturers. Already we see European companies establishing and expanding manufacturing facilities here because with the currency advantage and the productivity of the American work force it is cheaper to manufacture in the US than Asia where you have to deal with other issues to get your product manufactured and to the market. Caterpillar and John Deere can't manufacture their product fast enough to meet export demand.

A lower dollar hurts imports to places like Wal-Mart. Small consumer goods will be more expensive. Cars will be marginally more expensive. European vacations will be more expensive. Oil and other energy products that are imported will be more expensive. Products that rely on oil will become more expensive.

The result will be more people buying domestically manufactured goods, more exports, fewer cheap Asian imports, and an emphasis on saving energy. Eventually the trade imbalance will straighten out, interest rates will get high enough to attract savings again, and the dollar and US economy will boomerang back to 1986, at which point we’ll start to import more, manufacture less, and the cycle will repeat.

[tabs]

This is not the end of the world.

The major problem is in the short run, which is that with the global credit market has "seized" making it illiquid. The US is in a bind burning the candle at both ends. One with the credit worthiness of the US declining Interest rates should be going up, however because the credit market is kaput the Fed need to pump liquidity into the market to keep the cash flowing. They do it by lowering interest rates. Which makes American $ paper less attractive to fureners. Not only that but the $ is in decline because of the lesser credit worthiness of the USA. Which then hurts furen investment into the US because they lose money on the exchange back into their own currency at a later date.

This is errily similar to the Stock Market "seizing" in 1929. And isn't it funny that the Fed Chairman is an expert on the Great Depression.

[tabs]

Spoon futures have been holding up VERY well. There is no dirth of money for anything good. There is a bit of softness or decent prices on average stuff.

For example I saw a WW2 Mauser 98K Sniper rifle with SS markings that had an estimate of 8K to 12K close out at $23000.00. Get the idea.

[MRM]

Right on all counts, TABS. It is breathtaking to realize how close we were to another 1929. The Fed is doing things now to prevent, not a recession, but another great depression. I think they're ahead of the curve this time, but think of how different the wold would be if the Fed had taken similar action in 1929.

[Sapporo Guy]

The only worry about the 1929 Black Monday association is that these 2 events are not the same.

What worked back then will/won't work this time.
I'd say that the information age and the more studied market of today are 2 major differences.

Note, I did not say more "educated".