best days of America... over?

[mjshira]

I have a friend is one of the most well educated people I know. He and I argue (in a friendly way) about a number of things. One topic I thought I'd share here and inquire as to what you folks think.

My friend thinks that economically we can not recover as a country, that standards of living will go down in this country and our economic system is not 'free' but rather that it favors the wealthy at the expense of the non-wealthy.

He further states that we don't have the necessary industry in the country to support a reduction and eventual elimination of export deficits which means that wealth will continue its flight from our country to other countries.

Are our days of success over? Will we be the next UK?

I'd like to hear what you guys think.

[m21sniper]

He forgot to mention the big brother police state this nation has become.

[mjshira]

so you too think that we are over and done with?

[m21sniper]

I have no idea what i think anymore about some of this stuff. Doesn't matter, nothing i can really do about any of it.

[gprsh924]

I say that I am beginning to grow weary of the doom and gloom propagated on this forum.

[tabs]

Here is the reality that the nay sayers among others of America forget. The last 63 years of American history is an aberation of history. World War 2 changed everything. The WHOLE industrial world was damaged if not destroyed with the exception of the USA. The USA was the biggest and ONLY unscratched industrial nation on earth. As such EVERYBODY had to buy our capital good to rebuild themselves. America became the wealthiest nation on earth, wages and standard of living went through the roof. By the 1960's that all began to change as other nations weere able to reconstitute themselves and offer themselves as competition. The American standard of living HAD to retreat in order to remain comepetative.

Some place in there we began to believe our own hype..that we as America could have guns and butter without paying for the consequences.

[alf]

Originally Posted by tabs

Here is the reality that the nay sayers among others of America forget. The last 63 years of American history is an aberation of history. World War 2 changed everything. The WHOLE industrial world was damaged if not destroyed with the exception of the USA. The USA was the biggest and ONLY unscratched industrial nation on earth. As such EVERYBODY had to buy our capital good to rebuild themselves. America became the wealthiest nation on earth, wages and standard of living went through the roof. By the 1960's that all began to change as other nations weere able to reconstitute themselves and offer themselves as competition. The American standard of living HAD to retreat in order to remain comepetative.

Some place in there we began to believe our own hype..that we as America could have guns and butter without paying for the consequences.

Interesting insight. There were some coutries that were largely unscathed in Europe by WW2 as well. Sweeden and Switzerland. They did not ramp up industrial war efforts like we did though.

The country that has historically been a dominant world power through recorded history is China, I think they will come back in spades now that they have largely recovered from a century of conflict.

[Gogar]

You're being optimistic if you think we can be the next UK. The situation your friend describes makes us the next India. Except we don't have the hard workers.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by alf

Interesting insight. There were some coutries that were largely unscathed in Europe by WW2 as well. Sweeden and Switzerland. They did not ramp up industrial war efforts like we did though.

The country that has historically been a dominant world power through recorded history is China, I think they will come back in spades now that they have largely recovered from a century of conflict.

China around the year 1300 burned their navy and trading fleet to turn inward. They believed they are the center of the world. That Chinese decision is still in play. The Chinese make no real move on the world stage except to resolve some internal dilemma.

[alf]

Originally Posted by tabs

China around the year 1300 burned their navy and trading fleet to turn inward. They believed they are the center of the world. That Chinese decision is still in play. The Chinese make no real move on the world stage except to resolve some internal dilemma.

Yes, the superstitious faults of a Ming emperor. I think it was in the late 1400s that they did that.

Back to the US. We are fundementally sound with a good industrial base, but education will be sliding relative to the rest of the world. We might not be #1 forever but I do not think we will go to the bottom of the heap anytime soon.

[mjshira]

interesting to note, the UK has national debt nearly the size of ours but GDP of way-y less. seems like moves to nationalize things like health care, etc have not turned out to have been financially wise. I think we need to a smaller military and less social programs. I can't understand why nobody is talking about out of control spending. any of the three running this year will all spend more... where is it going to come from?

[Rick Lee]

Every country in the world favors the wealthy. It's just the way it is. If you can afford to escape a bad place, you do. If you have it good there, you stay. We very much have the ability to turn things around, but I don't think we'll do it. We are so dumbed down and lazy and India and China are exactly the opposite. We punish wealth producers with taxes, regulation and class warfare rhetoric from politicians. We only ever reward bad decisions and lazy people. We've been very lucky to have it this good for so long. It can't go on forever, not by luck and certainly not the way we're doing things now.

[mjshira]

a lot of good points Rick. we have come back from worse before. problem is that people don't know history so they don't know that we have. All they have as a reference is mostly what they hear on the news which I have to say has gotten so bad that I find myself reading news almost 100% of the time. to me the news is just like the credit rating agencies in the present crisis - they have incentive to drive the cycle and it makes any cycle, worse.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by mjshira

interesting to note, the UK has national debt nearly the size of ours but GDP of way-y less. seems like moves to nationalize things like health care, etc have not turned out to have been financially wise. I think we need to a smaller military and less social programs. I can't understand why nobody is talking about out of control spending. any of the three running this year will all spend more... where is it going to come from?

The ticking time bomb is Social Security and Medicare. Generations have put THEIR MONEY into it in the form of payroll taxes. How are you going to deny someone something that they paid for over a lifetime of work? This is not something that the government is giving for free. The current debacle was put into motion by a DEMOCRATIC President by the name of Johnson. Take the money out of the savings account and drop in an IOU to be paid later. This has been the favored method of stealing from the kitty to pay for the then current largess. Now after years of squandering the money with nothing to show for it, the piper is about to be paid.

[mjshira]

agreed, so why doesn't anyone seem to care? how can we consider national health care or continued investment in Iraq if we've not addressed this issue? Also, why do we think that gov't can manage money well? It never has... yet people still want gov't to do 'more' for us. I just don't 'get it'.

[nostatic]

to quote Dean Wormer, "fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son..."

That is about the profile of the "typical" American. Previous generations created a society where things came easily and much of the drive and work ethic is history. Intellectual pursuits are looked down upon, the arts are aggressively ignored or insulted, replaced by cheap big screen tvs and reality programming. Never has the creation of content been easier, yet less people really engage it, preferring instead to be passive consumers.

We huff and puff about this and that, but hubris runs deep. We still view China and India as "3rd world" despite the fact that they will surpass us in manufacturing and technology and creativity in the next few decades. And we will fiddle with our Big Macs as Rome burns...

Yeah, the best days are likely over. Complacency, largess, and lack of personal responsibility will continue the slide. The college youth should be pissed of and taking matter into their own hands. But I don't see that happening. They're mostly just worried about what major will get them a 6 figure job when they get out. Good luck with that one...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by nostatic

. The college youth should be pissed of and taking matter into their own hands. But I don't see that happening. They're mostly just worried about what major will get them a 6 figure job when they get out. Good luck with that one...

My advice to achieve that 6 figure income is to learn Chinese and move to China....

[tabs]

Nostatus U forgot to mention that the media nad political leadership want to keep Americans fat drunk and stupid.

[Zeke]

James, in a word, we are f****d. Your friend is probably more right than wrong. I've always thought my dad's generation was the best even though he lived thru the depression before WWII. Whether that's true or not, I'm glad I won't be around to see the worst. It'll be bad enough in the next 10 to 15 years which should show me my grave. I don't even want to see the immediate future as it appears to be unfolding.

[RANDY P]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

He forgot to mention the big brother police state this nation has become.

+! there is always someone to blame for your misfortune, and someone you can call to collect.