It's June--The SCOTUS Should Decide Heller Soon...
 

My prediction?

Outright bans of handguns will be outlawed. The SCOTUS will leave the door open for "reasonable regulation". A dissenting opinion will explain how to get around the ruling.

Net result?

Nothing changes.

I would be very surprised to see any meaningful change come from their decision. I think you pretty well nailed it.

So what happens if the SCOTUS strikes down all restrictive gun laws and the cities just ignore it? Who's gonna enforce the decision? Plenty of SCOTUS decisions have gone totally ignored before.

That's when I expect all the money I send to the NRA to do some good. I expect some lawsuits and some lower court injunctions and mandatory injunctions. Failing that, I expect the non-compliant public officials to be taken to the cleaners.

This one has a little more visibility than that, Rick. I'm by no means saying "it's over" if they rule in that manner (and I really don't think it will be definitive anyway). Cities will continue to harrass lawful owners; I'm relatively sure of that. On what level is anyone's guess, but I'm sure they will at some level.

Seattle is a great, and recent example of this mentality. Their illustrious mayor banned the carry of all handguns on all city property. By "executive decision", no less. He used a highly publicized shooting by a CCW holder as his justification. What he could not get through his council, through the county council, or through the state, he enacted by decree. "It's good to be King..."

Anyway, Washington has a pre-emption law. No local jurisdiction can pass more restrictive gun law than the state. What he has done is clearly illegal. He does not care. It will take a lengthy and expensive legal action to "undo" his decree. I can see jurisdictions accross the country taking the same approach with the SCOTUS decision, assuming it goes our way in the first place.

Nickels has to be the biggest douchebag in WA state, besides Gregoire.

I'm pretty sure NV has a state pre-emption law too, but that didn't stop Clarke County from instituting universal handgun registration. Lack of enforcement just chaps my hide. BTW, I'm coming to WA soon and was wondering my AZ, VA or NH CCW's are any good there.

Nope. Our illustrious Governor has vetoed reciprocy bills with boring regularity. The last two (Democratic, by the way) Governors, for that matter. Washington has very liberal carry laws (thanks to a very well written State Constitution; clearer even than the federal) but, unfortunately, recognizes no other CCW's.

Pa has an iron clad RKBA too, as well as state preemption.

Philly has tried many times to outlaw this or that, and the state always squashes it promptly.

I think politicians should be prosecuted for ignoring laws, not rebuked by the courts, prosecuted.

5-4 against, Kennedy writes the decision, they have a run going.

Justice Kennedy does not surprise me much

All the 'experts' who heard the arguments, and especially the supremes' comments seem to think the DC ban is going to go down in flames. Even Sarah Brady/HCI has conceded a probable defeat.

We will know soon.

"Justice Kennedy" - what an oxymoron.

I hope so too. It's my one big sticking point with Obama. If this doesn't happen, I may have to change my vote to McCain :eek:

I know I'm dreaming, but it sure would be nice if local restrictions/bans were struck down. In this state with its repertoire of draconian and fascist laws with respect to the citizens being able to defend themselves, it would be AWFULLY nice for that to happen.

But I won't hold my breath.